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H1N1 Situation in India July 26 to October 17th 2010.
The Consolidated Status update from India has not yet been issued for this week. When it is, I will revise this report with updates. However, since the most active pandemic outbreak right now is occurring in India, I feel it necessary to go forward with what information is available. During the week from July 26th to Aug 1st at least 541 people tested positive for H1N1. Nationally, at least 57 fatalities were registered bringing the official total to 1,763 (my current total is 1,796). An additional 5 media reported fatalities from Maharashtra are awaiting confirmation. Little or no media information came from Tamil Nadu or Kerala this week. This is the most fatalities in a given week since January. 38 fatalities were recorded in Maharashtra. The largest single week toll in the first wave for that state was 25 recorded in the week ending September 18 2009. Case numbers in West Bengal, Gujarat, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra appear to be rising.
The India database now contains information on 1,933 confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
During the week from Aug 2nd to Aug 8th 3131 samples were taken of which 942 (30.1%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 36,240). Nationally, 98 fatalities were registered bringing my current total to 1904. The number of positive cases increased significantly in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi. Rajasthan registered two positive cases, the first in that state in months. Maharashtra registered 61 fatalities. An additional 10 fatalities that were treated as H1N1 patients, have not, as yet, been confirmed. Karnataka registered 12 fatalities, but some patients, seeking care across the border in Maharashtra may or may not be included in this total. Orissa registered 4 cases and 4 fatalities giving some indication of the testing regime in that State. On a positive note, new cases in Kerala and West Bengal dropped with only one fatality recorded this week from each State. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
The India database now contains information on 2,050 confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
During the week from Aug 9th to Aug 15th 4596 samples were taken of which 1155 (25.1%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 37,395). Nationally, 104 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2008. The number of positive cases increased significantly in Maharashtra, Delhi and Tamil Nadu. Signs of increased activity in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Orissa are also apparant. New cases in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh remained relatively high, but steady. West Bengal and Kerala are registering a much lower level of activity than some weeks ago. 55 fatalities from Maharashtra were recorded this week Karnataka registered 19 fatalities, mostly unidentified, and some patients, seeking care across the border in Maharashtra may or may not be included in this total. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
The India database now contains information on 2,160 confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
Agreed, and this is consistant with data from Kerala which has experienced two complete waves.
Wave 1: June 2009 - Feb 2010: 37 fatalities from 1468 cases, 2.5%
Wave 2: March 2010- Aug 2010: 81 fatalities from 1402 cases, 5.8%.
But, the CDC's highest estimate for the US is a CFR of 0.04%. In other words, the fatality/case ratio out of India is so wildly inaccurate that no real conclusions can be made from it.
Protocols require an H1N1 positive patient to be placed in isolation. But, since the hospitals are stressed by large numbers of patients, there are not enough isolation facilities. Doctors are fearing legal repercussions by being unable to isolate H1N1 patients, so they don't perform confirmation tests, they just treat the symptoms. Presumably the sicker you are, the more likely to be tested which would skew the statistics.
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
However, the question remains of doubling or even tripling of mortality in Maharashtra in this period, despite the fact that this should not be a typical flu season, most striking during the 'winter
It would be interesting to know what was the mortality rate for influenza during previous seasons
During the week from Aug 16th to Aug 22nd 4434 samples were taken of which 1335 (30.1%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 38,730). Nationally, 81 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2087*. Maharashtra remains the most active State, but indicators are suggesting that the outbreak may have peaked. The number of new cases has increased dramatically in Delhi, Karnataka and Gujarat. Indications of a rising trend are also apparent for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Orissa and Uttar Pradesh. Andhra Pradesh remains steady and high, while Kerala and West Bengal are returning to background levels. Fatalities from Karnataka and Gujarat are rarely media reported and remain largely unidentified. In addition to the 37 State confirmed fatalities in Maharashtra this week, 24 media reported suspect fatalities have gone unconfirmed. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
* Two errors have been rectified.
The India database now contains information on 2,267 confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
During the week from Aug 23rd to Aug 29th 4557 samples were taken of which 1247 (27.4%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 39,977). Nationally, 99 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2186. Maharashtra remains the most active State, but indicators are suggesting that the outbreak may have peaked. Orissa is also having a much greater wave than that of October 2009. Activity increased significantly in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Chhattisgarh, remained steady in Karnataka, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, and decreased in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh. 68% of fatalities this week for whom gender was recorded were female, of those, at least 9 (15%) were pregnant. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities (using Consolidated Status data) for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
The India database now contains information on 2,371 confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
During the week from Aug 30th to Sep 5th 4986 samples were taken of which 1257 (25.2%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 41,234). Nationally, 131 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2317. Maharashtra remains the most active State, but indicators suggest that the outbreak has peaked. Case data is not available for all states this week. Rajasthan, Delhi and Maharashtra registered an increase in the numbers of new cases. Gujarat had the distinction of recording 32 fatalities, but only 64 new cases. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka registered a decrease in activity. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities (using Consolidated Status data) for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
The India database here; http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/fl...dualah1n1cases contains information and links to both confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
Confirmed Cases for selected States:
Confirmed fatalities for selected States:
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
During the week from Sep 6th to Sep 12th 4984 samples were taken of which 1,011 (20.3% tested positive for H1N1 (Total 42,245). Nationally, 104 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2421. Maharashtra remains the most active State, but indicators suggest that the outbreak has peaked. New cases were lower or steady in most states, with Rajasthan alone showing a continued upward trend. However some states are only testing critical cases – in the past two weeks Madhya Pradesh has reported 30 new cases and 31 fatalities. It should be noted that the Ganesh festival this weekend may have reduced the amount of testing and reporting this week. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities (using Consolidated Status or State data) for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
The India database here; http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/fl...dualah1n1cases contains information and links to both confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
Confirmed Cases for selected States:
Confirmed fatalities for selected States:
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
During the week from Sep 12th to Sep 19th 5,211 samples were taken of which 1,041 (20.0%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 43,283). Nationally, 127 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2548. Maharashtra remains the most active State, but indicators suggest that the outbreak has peaked. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi all registered significant numbers of fatalities. Overall cases are still rising rapidly in Rajasthan, holding steady in Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat, while decreasing in Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh.
The India database here; http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/fl...dualah1n1cases contains information and links to both confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
Confirmed Cases for selected States:
Confirmed fatalities for selected States:
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
During the two weeks from Sep 20th to Oct 3rd 7,963 samples were taken of which 953 (12.0% tested positive for H1N1 (Total 44,687). Nationally, 158 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2,706. Cases and fatalities have dropped in this most recent week, but remain widespread. Reporting has become very spotty and many confirmed fatalities especially from Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu are not being reported to the central count. Graphs of cases and fatalities are presented at the end of this report. State figures are used where available, otherwise the data comes from the consolidated status updates.
The India database here; http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/fl...dualah1n1cases contains information and links to both confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
Confirmed Cases for selected States:
Confirmed fatalities for selected States:
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
During the two weeks from Oct 4th to Oct 17th 4,234 samples were taken of which 300 (7.1%) tested positive for H1N1 (Total 44,987). Nationally, 59 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2,765. New cases and fatalities are much reduced.
The India database here; http://ft100.dabbledb.com/publish/fl...dualah1n1cases contains information and links to both confirmed and suspected fatal cases. National figures do not give any identifying features for each fatality. It is likely that some omissions and double counts are present in the above data.
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
tested positive for H1N1 (Total 42,245). Nationally, 104 fatalities were registered from various media and government sources bringing my current total to 2421. Maharashtra remains the most active State, but indicators suggest that the outbreak has peaked. New cases were lower or steady in most states, with Rajasthan alone showing a continued upward trend. However some states are only testing critical cases – in the past two weeks Madhya Pradesh has reported 30 new cases and 31 fatalities. It should be noted that the Ganesh festival this weekend may have reduced the amount of testing and reporting this week. Graphs of confirmed cases and fatalities (using Consolidated Status or State data) for selected states are at the bottom of this report.
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