Cases dropping in India?

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Cases dropping in India?

Suspected swine flu admissions continue
Snehlata Shrivastav, TNN 20 October 2009, 03:28am IST

NAGPUR: Although the swine flu positive cases have been on the decrease, the number of admitted suspected cases continue to range between 5-7 from
the last couple of months as the private hospitals are in no mood to take any risk and continue to refer every suspected case (even a simple pneumonia) to the Government Medical College and Hospital (GMCH). The proof of this is an increase in H1N1 negative deaths in the swine flu isolation ward. Out of the 18 deaths so far, only seven tested positive for H1N1, as per reports from the National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune. Even the H1N1 positive number has long been stagnant at 77.
On Monday the ward had six admitted patients, including one new admission of a 71-year-old suspected woman from Trimurti Nagar, who has complications like hypertension, and diabetes on late Sunday night.

Two girls, aged 4 and 7, continue to be on high flow oxygen.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Suspected-swine-flu-admissions-continue/articleshow/5140316.cms

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Cases dropping in India?

H1N1 on the wane in city, cases down to 10-12 a day
TNN 1 November 2009, 11:42pm IST

NEW DELHI: Five months after the first case of H1N1 influenza was reported in India, the panic surrounding it has almost subsided and the number of
new cases, too, has drastically gone down. Till a month back, close to 100 new cases were confirmed every day while at present the number is around 10-12. Experts feared that the second wave of the infection, which is going to be more virulent, might hit India in October-November. Luckily, they are seeing no sharp changes in the H1N1 influenza strain, but caution that it might come anytime.

Lack of awareness about the infection, its treatment modalities, etc, resulted in the initial panic. "But now the panic is gone. People know about H1N1 and are reporting in the early stages of the infection. Now, the number of cases have also come down. Initially, we were testing a large number of people for the infection, as little was known about it and the number of people coming for screening were more. But now, doctors are not testing people showing mild symptoms,'' said Dr Randeep Guleria, professor, medicine, AIIMS.

So far in Delhi, 3,588 cases have tested positive, including the 17 people who succumbed to the infection. "Till a month ago, we were getting 50-80 cases every day, but now the number is very less around 10-12,'' said Dr Anjan Prakash, additional nodal officer, Delhi government. The government's decision to give permission to private labs and hospitals to test and treat H1N1 patients has been instrumental in bringing down the panic level among general public.

But experts don't rule out the second wave of the infection. Though it was predicted to hit India in October-November, it is yet to arrive. "We call it a `wave' as it will have its high and low points. This could be the low point of the first wave. Winter has just begun to set in and and this infection will spread faster in cold temperature,'' said a scientist at National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD). But luckily, the H1N1 influenza strain seen in India has not mutated ever since it entered the country. "But it can mutate anywhere and anytime,'' added the scientist.

The magnitude of second wave, the virulence of the virus and how it will behave is something experts are uncertain about. "With this pandemic, we were fortunate. We fought the pandemic with a drug. A large number of people (close to 90-95%) get infected but show no symptoms of the disease and develop anti-bodies. And those who tested positive have developed anti-bodies against the infection. Even if the second wave comes, we are well-prepared and not many people will suffer. In the first wave also, the strain was fairly virulent, but complications were seen in a very small percentage of people, mostly those who were immuno-compromised,'' said Dr VM Katoch, DG-ICMR. But experts say it is too early to make predictions about the second wave.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/H1N1-on-the-wane-in-city-cases-down-to-10-12-a-day/articleshow/5186769.cms

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Cases dropping in India?

A(H1N1) epidemic on a downward curve, says Health Secretary



Ramya Kannan



CHENNAI: The A(H1N1) epidemic is on a definite down curve in the State, Principal Secretary, Health, V.K. Subburaj, has said.

?The dip has begun and clearly, we can say that the epidemic is reaching a milestone in Tamil Nadu,? S. Elango, Director of Public Health, told The Hindu. Every epidemic has a down curve and the A(H1N1) has finally got there. The tapering off has taken place over the last month. The total number of suspected cases of A (H1N1) in Tamil Nadu was 18,564 as of October 31. The number of positive cases was 1814.

There have been eight deaths in the State directly attributed to A(H1N1) and though there have been insinuations of other deaths that were not reported, Dr. Elango said all those claims were verified and found to be false. The number of cases had certainly dropped since the first case was recorded in June and subsequently rose over the months, peaking at 716 cases in September. In October it dropped to 404.

The deaths occurred in some cases even after the treatment was completed, indicating that drug resistance was a bigger problem than was being recorded formally, Dr. Elango said. Also, public health officials had gathered ample evidence to prove that there was a carrier stage in the epidemic during which people harbouring the virus might not necessarily be ill.

He indicated that the State was interested in examining the validity of chloroquinine (used in the treatment of malaria) in treating this influenza.

While Chennai initially led the epidemic, the surrounding districts caught up over the months. The capital city continues to be the top, with 781 out of the total cases coming from here. As many as 250 cases are from neighbouring Kancheepuram and 98 from the northern neighbour Tiruvallur. The largest percentage of cases (35) affected the 6-14 age group, followed by the 21-40 age group, 29 per cent.

Mr. Subburaj said that the number of cases in Coimbatore, however, seemed to have gone up, comparatively. ?Even if we are on a down curve, it does not mean we can slacken. The vigil is up. Laboratories will continue to test and in Coimbatore, specially, we have taken up screening in schools as a preventive measure.?

Monitoring


Airports and seaports were being monitored by health officials in order to detect infections. Twenty-two airports across the nation continued to be under the scanner and the total passengers screened till date was 78,92,245.

Till date, samples from 73,149 persons have been tested for Influenza A(H1N1) in government laboratories and a few private laboratories across the country and 13,861 (18.9 per cent) of them found to be positive, according to data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. The Ministry?s update also mentions an increasing number of ?indigenous? cases as opposed to the beginning of the epidemic when travellers from abroad brought the flu into the country.

http://www.hindu.com/2009/11/05/stories/2009110551260500.htm