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  • puzzled

    I'm totally puzzled, what's going on.
    It's obvious since ~Feb09 that cases in China are going down
    and it becomes clearer every day.
    Still flubies and experts and health officials and most reporters are ignoring this
    and talk as if the pandemic thread were the same as in early Feb.
    Why should Singapore or Japan or UK be a problem with just a few cases
    when China could handle it with thousands of cases ?

    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

  • #2
    Because no one believes China's numbers.

    We will see what happens in Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, etc.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by gsgs View Post
      I'm totally puzzled, what's going on.
      It's obvious since ~Feb09 that cases in China are going down
      and it becomes clearer every day.
      Still flubies and experts and health officials and most reporters are ignoring this
      and talk as if the pandemic thread were the same as in early Feb.
      Why should Singapore or Japan or UK be a problem with just a few cases
      when China could handle it with thousands of cases ?
      Also, UK, Japan and Singapore are picking up the non-pneumonia, mild disease transmission cases - where China is not reporting on those. Fortunately, China's pneumonia cases are less, but at what cost and to what measure? The disease is not contained, only curtailed. I understand why they are worried. When business as usual returns to China, without stopping the disease, cases will increase again.

      I agree with Sharon, too, no one believes China's numbers.

      Comment


      • #4
        there are lots of papers that estimate the Chinese underreporting. Outside Hubei it
        was a factor of 1.4 afair in a recent paper.
        But it doesn't matter, we just observe the trend, not the total numbers.
        Why should the underreporting have changed ? And in a way to produce
        a stable downtrend ?
        And no, you can't produce this deliberately. In all the provinces.
        And the reporters are especially WHO do trust the numbers, reproduce them.
        And those who talk about it do acknowledge that they are going down,
        just that it's commonly ignored/avoided.

        Well, some reporters say they are still going up, but they mean the cumulative
        numbers which of course are increasing.
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

        Comment


        • #5
          China threatens 10 yrs sentences up to death for concealing cases, which means to me there are plenty of cases to be found.
          CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

          treyfish2004@yahoo.com

          Comment


          • #6
            there are reasonable estimates of the factor of underreporting.

            China ex Hubei ~1.5
            Hubei ex Wuhan ~1.9
            Wuhan~19 (Jan.29)

            I read recently.

            for the trend underreporting doesn't matter, unless they systematically change the level of underreporting over time


            Statistical Inference for Coronavirus Infected Patients in Wuhan
            Yong-Dao Zhou1, Jianghu (James) Dong2, *1
            https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...774v1.full.pdf



            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by curiosity View Post
              I agree with Sharon, too, no one believes China's numbers.
              see some of the "noones" here : : http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138789227.htm
              and what about WHO ? DG, can't remember the name



              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

              Comment


              • #8
                The case numbers from the past few days in China seem to suggest that the number of infections are declining. If we are worried about a pandemic, we don’t have to rely on numbers from China.

                To date, about 25 countries have reported COVID-19 infections to WHO. The graph below depicts the distribution of more than 660 cases from around the world, excluding China, Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. About 53% of these cases are reported from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan. The cruise ship data clearly shows that this coronavirus is very contagious. All of the cases from the ship have been reported in the past 11 days.

                As depicted in the chart, among all of the 25 countries there is no evidence that new cases outside of China are increasing at exponential rates. So far, the rest of the world has done a good job of containing and isolating infected individuals.

                Click image for larger version

Name:	non China cases 20200216.jpg
Views:	337
Size:	123.3 KB
ID:	829830

                http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by gsgs View Post

                  see some of the "noones" here : : http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138789227.htm
                  and what about WHO ? DG, can't remember the name


                  I agree - I used an inappropriate term to depict distrust in the numbers. The WHO and Xinhua News are good examples of contradiction to the claim.

                  Given the willingness to bring their country to a screaming halt and if even 1 percent of the video available is true - then we are not getting the whole picture and thus not the truth.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Laidback Al View Post
                    The case numbers from the past few days in China seem to suggest that the number of infections are declining. If we are worried about a pandemic, we don’t have to rely on numbers from China.

                    To date, about 25 countries have reported COVID-19 infections to WHO. The graph below depicts the distribution of more than 660 cases from around the world, excluding China, Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. About 53% of these cases are reported from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan. The cruise ship data clearly shows that this coronavirus is very contagious. All of the cases from the ship have been reported in the past 11 days.

                    As depicted in the chart, among all of the 25 countries there is no evidence that new cases outside of China are increasing at exponential rates. So far, the rest of the world has done a good job of containing and isolating infected individuals.

                    Click image for larger version

Name:	non China cases 20200216.jpg
Views:	337
Size:	123.3 KB
ID:	829830


                    Consider all cases prior to last three days ex cruise ship are a result of testing for the virus in travelers from China or contacts to cases. Numbers tested would fall with corresponding decrease in travelers due to quarantine.

                    True growth will not present in confirmed, asymptomatic or mild cases during contact tracing but in the presentation of the epidemic in Wuhan - multiple severe pneumonia cases unrelated to influenza - or population surveillance testing.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Dans la zone ou la mortalité est hors norme , les morts avaient une infection ou ? Vous aviez indiqué ceci :

                      La métagénomique virale a révélé l'infection par le virus de Sendai et le coronavirus des pangolins malais
                      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/31652964/#

                      donc de ceci :
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murine_respirovirus

                      c'est un virus connu de certains :
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybridoma_technology


                      donc ?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        you may remember Helen Branswell from our H5N1 discussions,
                        she writes (good) COVID articles now :
                        https://www.statnews.com/staff/helen-branswell/
                        Now I found that at twitter on Feb/09 she drew the chart of daily new cases in China and wrote:
                        > Chart of daily increases. Don't read too much into the decline; not sure what it means.

                        Well, it means no pandemic (yet).
                        On the same day I wrote in the German forum here :
                        let's get on our knees to praise this rare luck. While the wording was from a German
                        comedian, I was serious about it and it did express my feeling at that time.
                        The days after Jan.24 it had looked very bad to me .
                        So, why was Branswell so relaxed, indifferent ? She did seem to trust the Chinese numbers,
                        lists them frequently, discusses Chinese studies, saw many other epidemic charts before.
                        The numbers continued to go down but she didn't comment (afaics)
                        In her articles,tweets after Feb.9 she still sounded concerned, didn't mention the decline.

                        I'm puzzled.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          yesterday Zhong Nanshang estimates that the epidemic may stabilize by the end of April
                          He expects the peak in China by the end of February.
                          But that won't necessarily be the trend reversal.

                          He had earlier said on Feb02
                          I haven't looked at the data this morning
                          The number is rising now and the rising trend will continue for some time, but I'm sure it won't be long

                          On Jan.28 he said:
                          The novel coronavirus outbreak may reach its peak in the next 10 to 14 days,

                          and we didn't believe it. But the numbers now show it.

                          said on Sunday, amending his previous prediction on Jan 28 that the epidemic would
                          peak in seven or 10 days.

                          Prolonging the Spring Festival holidays, controlling traffic, temperature checks and education
                          as well as other government measures have effectively cut off the source of infection and
                          greatly reduced the spread of the virus,

                          ------------------------------
                          so, why does he now say it peaks end Feb, when it had already peaked ?
                          As he had predicted.
                          It would go up for a second peak ?
                          Maybe due to people returning to work ? No, he said that would probably have little impact.
                          So what is it ?

                          And then it will peak and not go down after that until late April ???

                          I'm puzzled
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I found this :


                            Feb18, Human-to-human transmission has not been stopped in Wuhan: Zhong Nanshan
                            Zhong Nanshan on Tuesday warned the public to keep their waste pipes unobstructed as the novel coronavirus may spread through drainage systems.

                            Xinhua, Feb.12 , Zhong Nanshan said the epidemic peak should appear in mid-to-late February,
                            but the inflection point is still undetermined.

                            Zhong Nanshan on Feb.12
                            http://www.ecns.cn/news/society/2020...h6522839.shtml
                            they show the same picture as in the Feb.17 article , so did he say this
                            already on Feb.12 and just recalled it on Feb17 without looking at the new data
                            in all his traveling stress ?
                            Maybe just only adding the April-forecast after speaking with the modeler
                            [see below]

                            > The much-anticipated turning point of the novel coronavirus outbreak cannot be prediced

                            5 days later on Feb17 he could predict it

                            > There is a mathematics model, which is continuously being rectified according to the real
                            > situation, and climate factors are being considered.

                            aha, some secret Chinese math. modeling software program
                            which includes climate factors. Something that Western researchers claim
                            to be impossible

                            > Currently the new confirmed cases show a decreasing trend, and the mathematics
                            > model predicted that the turning point will arrive in mid- or late-February in southern China,

                            ## at that time it had already peaked in Southern China.
                            ## but only a few datapoints available, so with statistical uncertainety, "errorbar"
                            ## they may have required the common 95% statistical errorbar

                            ## and the April national prediction may be because it includes Wuhan,
                            ## which "Southern China" does not

                            https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...hina_map-1.png

                            [ 3 sentences quoted, and his exact words (hardly owned by ecns.cn , IMO , also quoted at Xinhua etc.)
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                            Comment

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