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  • nCoV case numbers

    ----2020/02/17/00:00 CET the first post in this thread was edited for update---------------

    ome daily time series, which I think are important
    to decide whether they can contain it
    Time series which can be easily updated in this very first post in the thread
    Jan.25-Feb.16

    =======================
    Feb.10-Feb.14, daily new cases, old method only
    Hubei_old,2097,1638,1508,1728,1282,955
    Wuhan_old,1552,1104,1072,1330,1001,?
    H-W_old , 545,534, 436, 398, 281,?
    hospitalised in Hubei on that day , Feb10-Feb14
    25087,26121,33693,36719,38107-including 8309 with the new diagnosis

    the data is no longer given since Feb.15
    ==============================


    ---------------------------------------
    Hubei ex Wuhan, daily new reported confirmed cases Jan25-:
    277,291,399,525,678,842,771,
    1027,1070,1103,1189,1221,946,856*,
    768,697,545,534,436*=1404,913,497,
    295,243

    *: change of definition

    -----------------------------------------
    China ex Hubei , daily new confirmed cases Jan.25-:
    365,398,480,619,705,761,752,
    678,722,890,728,707,696,558,
    509,444,381,377,312,267,221
    166,115

    -----------------------------------------------------
    China ex Hubei, daily new suspected cases Jan.25-
    * since Feb.12 China ex Wuhan
    ----,----,----,----,----,----,----,
    1956,1913,1890,2014,2098,2211,2141,
    1849,1736,1722,1657,757*,681,709
    645,571

    -----------------------------------------
    beeing treated in hospital, Hubei, Jan.25-
    ----,----,2567,3349,4334,5486,6738,
    8565,9618,10990,12627,14314,15804,19835,
    20993,22160,25087,26121,33693*,36719,38107,
    39447,40814

    ---------------------------------------------
    severe cases in hospital on that day , Hubei, Jan.25-
    ----,----,690,899,988,1094,1294,
    1562,1701,2143,2520,3084,4002,5195,
    5247,5505,6344,7241,7084*,9638,10152,
    10396,9797

    --------------------------------------
    under observation, Hubei, Jan.25-
    6904,9103,15559,20336,26632,32340,36838,
    43121,56088,58544,66764,64127,64057,67802,
    70438,73127,76207,77195,77308*,77685,77323,
    74261,71613


    by province and Hubei-cities:
    https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ac...rest-of-china/






    ================================================== ======================

    wikipedia has the list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...virus_outbreak

    here my charts from the wiki-data :
    http://magictour.free.fr/JAN31.GIF

    some of the logarithmic charts on the right bend a little towards horizontal,
    which is a good sign.
    However, this could be due to reduced report of cases, as they are being overwhelmed

    ---------------------------------------------------------
    here ia a list of 4116 cases (as of 02/02) with additional data:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...008/edit#gid=0


    data from feb01 :
    http://magictour.free.fr/FEB01.GIF


    seems to slow down ! discuss this also at https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/
    Last edited by gsgs; February 16th, 2020, 08:54 PM.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

  • #2
    updated with data from Feb.04 :
    [URL="http://magictour.free.fr/FEB04.GIF"]http://magictour.free.fr/FEB04.GIF


    "http:\/\/magictour.free.fr\/ncov-h.GIF"

    slowing down ... but not going down
    Last edited by gsgs; February 5th, 2020, 08:56 AM.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

    Comment


    • #3
      epidemic charts updated :

      https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ac...idemic-charts/

      -----------------edit----------------

      Feb.06
      New Coronavirus Pneumonia Prevention and Control Program (Fourth Edition)
      "The reported 'suspected cases' and 'clinical diagnosis cases' (only in Hubei Province)
      shall be revised as 'confirmed cases' or be eliminated in time according to the
      laboratory test results.
      The reported 'asymptomatic infected persons' shall be revised as 'confirmed cases'
      in a timely manner if any clinical manifestation occurs."
      http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/...138bd0509a.pdf page 15
      Last edited by gsgs; February 11th, 2020, 12:41 AM.
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

      Comment


      • #4
        the numbers of new cases continue to go down. There was a big increase of severe cases
        in Hubei ex Wuhan, consistent with the time-lag between infection and death.
        Severe cases were also up a lot in Hubei.
        But the total number of new cases is going down.
        Wuhan could be special, though. Down today, but it goes up and down
        almost randomly - let's say "stable" since 7 days
        Surprising the small number of severe cases and deaths in China ex Hubei,
        they should get more now with the calculated 22-days-timelag
        between infection and death.
        With this speed of decline there would be no new cases outside Wuhan in one week
        -------------------------------------------------------
        ahh, I've looked at hospitalization numbers , contacts traced, observations
        in Hubei and these are still going up. I don't have these for China ex Hubei
        and Hubei ex Wuhan yet
        Since Feb.08 Hubei also lists suspected cases and these are going down.
        But why would hospitalizations be going up and contacts tracings and observations
        Last edited by gsgs; February 10th, 2020, 09:48 PM.
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

        Comment


        • #5
          Hubei numbers are down again, especilly Wuhan
          hospitalization in Hubei are up again, although not so much

          surprisingly deaths are a little down too, with the 3-weeks-lag they should climb now

          Hubei ex Wuhan, daily new reported confirmed cases Jan25-Feb11:
          277,291,399,525,678,842,771,1027,1070,1103,1189,12 21,946,856*,768,697,545,534

          *: change of definition

          -------------02:20 UTC , the update from China is available--------------
          almost the same as yesterday, making a pause in the decline-trend outside Wuhan
          deaths and severe cases are not going up yet, as anticipated from the 3-weeks-lag

          reporting more severe cases in Hubei than in whole China --> must be an error somewhere
          suspected cases are also down a bit
          (in case that former confirmed cases are now subsumed under "suspected")
          Hubei now has 4890 "clinically diagnosed" , I speculate they came from "suspected"
          which went down by 5392. There are 2 lists for "suspected" in Hubei,
          one has 1685 cases, the other 11295
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by gsgs View Post
            reporting more severe cases in Hubei than in whole China --> must be an error somewhere
            There is definitely some confusion in the translation as the critical cases are often reported separately but are included in the severe cases. The words critical and severe seem to both translate into English as "severe" making it impossible for me to keep it all straight. For instance, you could have 1 severe case and 1 critical case but their report translates as "2 severe cases and 1 severe case" even though the 2 severe cases include the 1 critical case.

            Comment


            • #7
              yes, and I get "critical and critical" instead of "severe and critical", but this seems to be not the problem here. I speculate it's because
              they use different numbering guidelines now for Hubei and other provinces
              I just dicovered that China has also an English site , but it's not updated yet for Feb11
              http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
              http://en.nhc.gov.cn/DailyBriefing.html
              http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/index.shtml

              -------------------------------------------------------
              I see, they have an explanation:

              The number of newly added severe cases is obtained by subtracting the number of severe cases on the previous day from the number of existing severe cases on that day. There are medical outcomes such as mild disease and death in severe cases. On February 11, the number of severe cases in 12 provinces decreased by 44 cases, and the number of severe cases in 8 provinces including Hubei increased by 915 cases.
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

              Comment


              • #8
                updated, see 1st post
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                Comment


                • #9
                  since Feb.12 they give numbers from Hubei and Wuhan in an extra paragraph. The exact meaning of them is not so clear
                  table here: https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ac.../case-numbers/

                  chart: http://magictour.free.fr/H-W4.GIF

                  t
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    for Iran see my posts here : https://thisbluemarble.com/showthrea...704#post655704

                    what's _not_ speculative about that is the reaction (?) of the financial markets:

                    DAX down 1.1% , 07:35 UTC , Euro/$=10796, Gold= 1635, oil=5330 , VIX=16.70
                    ------edit--------
                    although the reactions were reportedly related to COVID, the situation in Iran
                    was not mentioned in this context
                    Last edited by gsgs; February 21st, 2020, 10:53 PM.
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                    Comment


                    • #11

                      China,55+49,53+29,45+28,31+17,48+44
                      SKor,91,146,105,78,125,101,89
                      Denmark,55,172,252,160,128,lockdown,32,39,57,92,91 ,
                      108,112,83,94,70,135,144,162,176,167,198,191,284
                      Czech,CZ,0,0,3,0,2,0,3,11,7,6,6,25,31,22,25,48,109 ,lockdown
                      85,67,110,205,124,158,114,128,185,291,259,373,262, 160,184,256
                      Netherlands,155,176,278,292,346,409,534,637,573,54 5,811,852,
                      1019,1172,1159,1104,884,845,1019
                      Austria : 430,680,925,684,838,1050,596,541,841,597,512
                      Japan,55,41,64,34,15,44,41,36,57,47,32,42 ,65,98,96,112,194,173, 87,225
                      Singapore,2,2,2,5,13,8,12,10,6,12,9,13,12,14,17,23 ,47,32,40,47,23,54,49,73,52,49,70,42,35,47,74
                      Taiwan,1,1,1,3,6,8,10,23,8,27,18,16,26,20,20,17,15 ,16,15,8,16,7
                      HongKong,5,1,5,9,2,6,4,7,9,10,25,16,48,18,43,40,29 ,24,43,65,64,59,41,32,51
                      Australia,0,8,3,10,7,12,20,15,29,42,50,50,78,77, 113,142,167,196,
                      281,364,430,285,379,369,460,345,265,311,303,184
                      New Zealand,1,2,0,4,8,8,11,13,14,36,53,50,78,85,83,63, 75,58,61,89
                      USA,2410,3948,5417,6271,8631,10410,9939,12226,1705 0,
                      19046,20093,19960,20718,25196,25756
                      -----------------------------------------
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Italy charts by region : [sorry, I don't know how to remove the big graphics now
                        (replace by a link)
                        Last edited by gsgs; May 11th, 2020, 09:34 PM.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                        Comment


                        • JJackson
                          JJackson commented
                          Editing a comment
                          gs x & y axis scales?
                          Edit: sorry x is days but did they say what y was in, I assume it is not log.
                          Last edited by JJackson; April 2nd, 2020, 01:57 PM.

                      • #13
                        JJackson, the picture is updated
                        x is always time (day) , y is non-logarithmic , no moving average
                        it's mainly for the trend so I often omit the scales
                        ----------------------------------------------------
                        euromomo week 13
                        https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zsco...try_total.html
                        map : https://www.euromomo.eu/slices/Maps-...AP-2020-13.png

                        Last edited by gsgs; April 2nd, 2020, 10:22 PM.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                        Comment


                        • #14
                          euromomo week 15 : http://magictour.free.fr/euromo15.GIF
                          Italy,UK,CZ,PL,AUT positive-rates : http://magictour.free.fr/PR-0416.GIF
                          Italy provinces : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0417.GIF
                          in most Northern provinces it looks horizontal, not going down.
                          E.g. Torino,Milano,Pavia
                          South Korea : http://magictour.free.fr/kor0418.GIF
                          they keep it out, see the positive-rate
                          France, daily deaths from all causes by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
                          peak in Paris ~Apr01
                          99 worldcharts in one picture, updated daily : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF
                          down : CHN,AUT,CHE,KOR,NOR,AUS,GRC,ISL,LUX,THA,NZL,CZE
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

                          Comment

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