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A new study in Nature Microbiology suggests that 1.65 million childbearing women in Central and South America are potentially at risk from being infected with Zika during the current epidemic. Based on the current observable rates of problematic pregnancies linked to the virus, this model-based study is also the first to give a comprehensive estimate of how many future pregnancies could experience adverse neurological disorders.
?Other researchers are still trying to get a handle on this, but it currently looks like this could be somewhere between 1 and 13 percent [of pregnancies],? Alex Perkins, coordinating researcher of the study and the Eck Family assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Notre Dame, told IFLScience. Pregnancies in the first trimester are thought to be the most vulnerable in this regard.
This team?s model is one of the most advanced to date. Among other factors, it takes into account how similar diseases spread by the same vector (such as dengue and Chikungunya), the immunological resistance (or lack thereof) of certain populations to Zika, the ability of the virus to spread within communities, and the current levels of Zika infections in the region.
?Other researchers are still trying to get a handle on this, but it currently looks like this could be somewhere between 1 and 13 percent [of pregnancies],? Alex Perkins, coordinating researcher of the study and the Eck Family assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Notre Dame, told IFLScience. Pregnancies in the first trimester are thought to be the most vulnerable in this regard.
This team?s model is one of the most advanced to date. Among other factors, it takes into account how similar diseases spread by the same vector (such as dengue and Chikungunya), the immunological resistance (or lack thereof) of certain populations to Zika, the ability of the virus to spread within communities, and the current levels of Zika infections in the region.
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