SEARO: Assessment of H5N1 situation report

[Giuseppe]

The meeting (28-29 May) power point presentation at: http://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/C...ion-update.ppt

I enclosed as attachment a PDF file-converted from Power Point Presentation for those interested.

[Commonground]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

Thanks ioh.

[Commonground]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

I don't understand the chart on page 10. What year is that?

[Giuseppe]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

I don't understand the chart on page 10. What year is that?

The Thailand chart?
It seems that prompt compensation of farmers / owners, sustained over the years, resulted in a reduction of the overall number of new epizootics, of human cases, and payments. A long-term approach vs short-term measures could be seen by farmers / owners as a sort of assurance.

[Commonground]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

So do you think each wave represents a year?

[Commonground]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

This is good. I like this statement. It's 100% true. Because '68 was the last one!!

Page 31

We do not know if it is going to be H5N1. We
have never been as close to the next one
since 1968

[Giuseppe]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

This is good. I like this statement. It's 100% true. Because '68 was the last one!!

Page 31

Yes, the last one.

However, in 1976 the A/H1N1 strain re-emerged and caused the so-called ''children pandemic''.

H1N1 disappeared in the eve of 1957 H2N2 pandemic influenza.

I think the real world is less timeline-like shaped as someone would imagine.

[Vibrant62]

Re: _|SEARO: ASSESSMENT OF H5N1 SITUATION REPORT|_

The point I find of most interest is the manner in which, under revised definitions, the pandemic alert system is working.

In essence they are confirming that a move to phase 4 will herald the start of a full blown pandemic, with the only preventative measure that could drive a reversion back to phase 3 being whether the outbreak can be contained or not. This confirms that a formal WHO announcement of a move to phase 4 will be synonomous with the emergence of a pandemic.