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Peak Calculations versus Peak Opinions
We're with you, JJackson.
Neither the clinical nor genetic data indicates these 7 Day "Best Case" scenarios for THE peak that are being painted by those considered experts / thought leaders. Perhaps a slowing in cases in one city / hospital has caused the speakers to miss the dozen that are increasing down the street and over the dale. Mini-cycles are common, especially geographically, when dealing with zoonoticly driven Influenza strains.
Little new information has been published since the ICU count acceleration (100 -> 182 -> 302 -> 460 cases) was last reported on December 23rd? Five days have passed during an accelerative phase without significant data sharing?
Last year, the Ukraine Ministry of Health managed to provide daily updates throughout a strikingly difficult influenza crisis. The <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">UK, in contrast,</st1:place></st1:country-region> has given us a few numbers here and there, alongside 4 sequences taken prior to the severe wave onset with no clinical meta-data?
If lucid data does, in fact, exist to support these opinions with backing calculations based on current viral dynamics, the public would be very keen to review those suppositions.
After all, aren't these the same people who have repeated the chant, "flu is unpredictable, flu is unpredictable", in hundreds of press releases for the past 5 months? How are they suddenly able to predict influenza behaviour with such confidence?
Have they stopped blaming the victims of their negligence long enough to actually undertake the feeding and evaluation of accurate models?
The public would like to see this rich bed of observational evidence related to zoonoticly active Influenza that is the foundation for these 7 Day Single Peak predictions.
Or perhaps the speakers would be willing to properly couch their "suggestions", their opinions, in specific language defining their imprecise methods reliant on an experimental testbed that is less than robust. At any rate, the public needs more than this incessant chanting about ?under control?, ?within normal limits? and ?peaking in 7 days?.
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More data, more transparency, more action.
Less chatter.
Originally posted by JJackson
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Neither the clinical nor genetic data indicates these 7 Day "Best Case" scenarios for THE peak that are being painted by those considered experts / thought leaders. Perhaps a slowing in cases in one city / hospital has caused the speakers to miss the dozen that are increasing down the street and over the dale. Mini-cycles are common, especially geographically, when dealing with zoonoticly driven Influenza strains.
Little new information has been published since the ICU count acceleration (100 -> 182 -> 302 -> 460 cases) was last reported on December 23rd? Five days have passed during an accelerative phase without significant data sharing?
Last year, the Ukraine Ministry of Health managed to provide daily updates throughout a strikingly difficult influenza crisis. The <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">UK, in contrast,</st1:place></st1:country-region> has given us a few numbers here and there, alongside 4 sequences taken prior to the severe wave onset with no clinical meta-data?
If lucid data does, in fact, exist to support these opinions with backing calculations based on current viral dynamics, the public would be very keen to review those suppositions.
After all, aren't these the same people who have repeated the chant, "flu is unpredictable, flu is unpredictable", in hundreds of press releases for the past 5 months? How are they suddenly able to predict influenza behaviour with such confidence?
Have they stopped blaming the victims of their negligence long enough to actually undertake the feeding and evaluation of accurate models?
- Where is that data?
- What are their heuristics?
- What are the assumptions?
- Are those assumptions built on Seasonal Flu or Zoonotic Flu?
The public would like to see this rich bed of observational evidence related to zoonoticly active Influenza that is the foundation for these 7 Day Single Peak predictions.
Or perhaps the speakers would be willing to properly couch their "suggestions", their opinions, in specific language defining their imprecise methods reliant on an experimental testbed that is less than robust. At any rate, the public needs more than this incessant chanting about ?under control?, ?within normal limits? and ?peaking in 7 days?.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
More data, more transparency, more action.
Less chatter.
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