South Africa: At Least 5 Million New HIV Infections Expected Over next 20 years

[Gert van der Hoek]

South Africa: At Least 5 Million New HIV Infections Expected Over next 20 years

19 November 2010

A new report says South Africa can expect to have at least five million new HIV infections over the next 20 years. That?s nearly the same number of people currently living with the disease in the country.

The report was released by the aids2031 South Africa Project. It outlines for the first time Africa?s ?difficult long-term choices and escalating costs? in battling the epidemic.

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Robert Hecht, one of the authors and also managing director of the Results for Development Institute, says, ?For South Africa, five million infections over the next 20 years is going to be a heavy toll, a heavy burden.?

It translates, he says, into 250,000 new HIV infections every year.
?You have to remember South Africa is a country that already has nearly six million people that are HIV positive,? he says.

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The scenario or the future where there are five million new infections is actually an optimistic scenario because we also explored in our work with the South Africans possibilities for the future that are much worse.

If South Africa were to basically maintain its prevention and treatment programs at the levels where they are today, there could be as many as 11 million new infections over the next two decades,? he says.

The report says South Africa currently has about 500,000 new infections every year.

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[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: South Africa: At Least 5 Million New HIV Infections Expected Over next 20 years

SOUTHERN AFRICA: HIV-prevention for youth - it's complicated


"The position of young women is vulnerable and disempowered - this is a key driver of HIV spread".


JOHANNESBURG, 19 November 2010 (PLUSNEWS) - When it comes to understanding what drives HIV infections among young people in southern Africa, the epicentre of the global AIDS pandemic, why not ask young people themselves?

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In general, efforts to reduce HIV infections in young people in the region have not succeeded, said Vearey. "We need to acknowledge that, take a deep breath and move forward."

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"We didn't ask questions around sexual behavior; we asked broad questions about what they thought was driving HIV and that came through," Vearey told IRIN/PlusNews.

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Most of the young people did not know the term MCPs, but had their own words such as "small house", "casa2" and "ATM" for a practice that was common across countries and tended to encompass intergenerational sexual relationships.

Extra-marital sex was described by the youth as one of the leading causes of HIV in their communities, especially relationships between young girls and older married men. Peer pressure was cited as a factor that encouraged young people to have sex, and in some cases to have sex in order to access material goods such as clothes and cell phones.

Young people identified unemployment and a lack of financial security as reasons why young women in particular made unsafe sexual decisions, but also made links between their desire to explore their sexuality and HIV risk.

Vearey pointed out that much of the discourse around HIV prevention has positioned young women as vulnerable and disempowered. "We're seeing a different discourse presented by women themselves and we need to listen to them," she said. "Young women described how they made decisions to have sexual relationships, often with older men with money. They might not have all the choices they'd like to have, but they still make a choice. We need to tap into that agency and help women make safer decisions."

The research also brought up the need to address some of the misconceptions and myths that young people have around HIV. For example, some believed that condoms contained worms and others that male circumcision provided total immunity from HIV.

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