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Egypt: risk of imminent...Global panic or exaggerated?

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  • Egypt: risk of imminent...Global panic or exaggerated?

    Egypt: risk of imminent .. ؟ Global panic or exaggerated?

    [A very long article....Well worth the read. I haven't seen this "report" published in Cairo....]
    Excerpt:

    The word ?, B? in itself does not indicate the ability of the virus to kill, but his ability to move from one person to another and spread the infection of large numbers of people in different places of the world.

    وقد أظهرت دراسة ?ساينس? نفسها ارتفاع قدرة فيروس ?أتش 1 أن1? على الانتقال من إنسان إلى آخر بسرعة أكبر من تلك المسجلة في الأنفلونزا الموسمية.

    The study showed ?Science? increase the capacity of the same virus ?HTML 1 to 1? to move from one person to another more quickly than those recorded in the seasonal influenza.

    ولعل هذا التفسير أيضا هو الذي جعلنا حتى الآن لا نعتبر أن هناك وباء عالمياً لأنفلونزا الطيور، مع العلم أن قدرة هذا الفيروس على قتل المصاب به تصل إلى أكثر من 60 في المئة من الحالات.

    Perhaps this is also the interpretation which has made so far do not consider that there is a pandemic of avian flu, knowing that the ability of this virus to kill the patient by up to more than 60 percent of the cases.

    فمن بين 429 حالة مسجلة عالمياً لأنفلونزا الطيور منذ عام 2007 توفيت 262 حالة.

    Out of 429 recorded cases of bird flu worldwide since 2007, died in 262 cases.

    وهو ما يعني أن تحول فيروس أنفلونزا الطيور إلى فيروس قادر على الانتقال من إنسان إلى آخر بسهولة، سيكون خطره أكبر بكثير على البشرية مما هي حال أنفلونزا الخنازير اليوم.

    This means that the transformation of the avian influenza virus into a virus capable of moving from one person to another easily, it will be a much greater threat to mankind than is the case of swine flu today.

    ويشير تقرير نشر مؤخرا في القاهرة أن مصر هي الدولة المرشحة لأن يشهد فيها الفيروس تحولاً يجعله قادراً على الانتقال من إنسان إلى آخر حيث سجلت فيها حتى الآن 77 إصابة توفيت 27 حالة منها.

    The report was recently published in Cairo that Egypt is the candidate to see a shift where the virus to be able to move from one person to another, recorded so far 77 cases of which 27 died.
    -snip-
    The George Friedman in an article published online ?Stratfor? Studies ?that any risk to humans would not be that the flu virus, but more deadly spread of HIV is transmitted through normal contact between humans and there is no cure.

    وفي هذه الحالة فإن انتشاره سيحصل قبل أن يتنبه أي شخص إليه حتى بوجود أنظمة رصد جيدة.

    In this case, the spread will be aware of before any person so there is good monitoring systems.

    وأول إشارات أي وباء قاتل لن تأتي من منظمة الصحة العالمية أو الجسم الطبي وإنما من واقع أن الناس يصابون بالمرض ويموتون حول العالم في الوقت نفسه.

    The first signs of a killer and will not come from the World Health Organization or the medical body, but from the fact that people are falling sick and dying around the world at the same time. [I agree!!!]

    وفي هذه الحالة لا أحد يمكنه أن يمنع الوباء أو يحصره.
    -snip-

  • #2
    Re: Egypt: risk of imminent...Global panic or exaggerated?

    I think this may be in part, what was behind the meeting held last night with the who.

    at least two flus, will most likely come together here within Egypt. in a single human host bird, pig and seasonal....and just what will or could result form it, is what really worries me.

    what has surprised me is the perceived ability of the bird flu to continue in Egypt during the recent hot period. current temp.97f with 30% humidity.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Egypt: risk of imminent...Global panic or exaggerated?

      Translation: Arabic ? English
      بيطريون: أنفلونزا الخنازير توطنت فى مصر
      الجمعة، 26 يونيو 2009 - 17:34


      مخاطر من اندماج فيروسات الأنفلونزا - تصوير عمرو دياب
      المنيا ـ حسن عبد الغفار


      كشف الدكتور عادل عبد الله أستاذ علم الحيوان بجامعة المنيا، عن وجود أكثر من 76% من إجمالى الخنازير فى العالم مصابة بفيروس أنفلونزا الخنازير، مشيرا إلى وجود أكثر من 16 سلالة لفيروس"H1" ووجود 9 سلالات لفيروس "n" فى الطيور والخنازير، وهو ما يهدد بكارثة صحية إذا اندمجت هذه السلالات معا. وأكد عبد الله، أن مصر أهدرت ملايين الجنيهات لمواجهة أنفلونزا الطيور والخنازير، دون الرجوع إلى استرتيجية تخطيطية من الدولة فيما يخص التنمية البشرية.

      من جانبه، كشف الدكتور أيمن رجب وكيل وزارة الصحة بالمنيا، أن فيروسى أنفلونزا الخنازير والطيور توطنا فى كافة محافظات مصر مع التغيرات السلوكية والمناخية الموجودة. وأشار إلى أن خطورة الفيروس تتمثل فى اختلاط الفيروسين معا، مما ينتج عنهما فيروسا جديدا يكون أكثر خطراً.

      Veterinarians: Totnt swine flu in Egypt
      Friday, June 26, 2009 - 17:34


      Risks of integration of influenza viruses - Amr Diab Photo
      El Hassan Abdel-Ghaffar


      Dr. Adel Abdullah, a professor of zoology, University of Minya, about the presence of more than 76% of the total in the world, pigs infected with swine flu, pointing to the existence of more than 16 strains of the virus, "H1" and the presence of 9 strains of the virus, "n" in birds and pigs, which What a disaster threatening the health of these species if merged together. Abdullah stressed that Egypt lost millions of pounds of avian and swine, without reference to the strategic planning of the State with regard to human development.

      For his part, Dr. Ayman Al-Rajab, Deputy Minister of Health and queens, the viral flu and swine flu endemic in all governorates of Egypt with the behavioral changes and climate that exist. He pointed out that the seriousness of the virus is in the mixing of viruses together, the resulting new virus would be more dangerous.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Egypt: risk of imminent...Global panic or exaggerated?

        I don't envy Egyptian leaders. Killing the pigs could very well lessen the probability of a deadly reassortment between H5N1 and H1N1 but, it has resulted in a surge in the rat, mice, cat, and dog populations. This in turn has opened the door to bubonic plague. Faced with a growing problem with plague, the citizenry is alarmed and demanding immediate solutions. Combating the pest population is costly and in all probability at least partly ineffective. Coupled with that the country has both severe cases of H1N1 and H5N1 occupying the same place at the same time. So, how do you keep these two flu's which look alike in patients until tests are done, separated? Meanwhile, the rest of the world is demanding that the two flu's remain separate. Not to mention they probably do not want to go down in history as the place where the worst flu in history started. And lastly, if they broadcast just how dangerous the situation is in Egypt they lose the money they normally gain in tourist dollars. On the plus side, the Egyptians are doing all they can to combat this crisis.
        Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

        Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
        Thank you,
        Shannon Bennett

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