Remnant of Matthew produces torrential rain over Mexico and Central America - Landslide buries hundreds of homes in Mexico

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241752
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...MATTHEW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY REACHING THE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/241752.shtml?

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 241457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS
KEPT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A ROUND BLOB
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE AND
MICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO
FAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS
12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.

THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS.
MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND TWO
DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS TORRENTIAL RAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.4N 82.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.6N 84.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 15.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 18.5N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/241457.shtml?

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew heading toward Central America in a hurry - Watches and Warnings issued for portions of Central America

<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Matthew not strengthening; Igor is Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory</B>


</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Updated: 2:02 PM GMT on September 24, 2010

Excerpt:


Impact of Matthew on Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize

Tropical storm force winds from Matthew are forecast to extend outwards from the center between 40 - 80 nm (46 - 92 miles) as the storm moves along the north coast of Honduras this weekend. Matthew's initial forward speed of 15 mph will slow to 10 mph by Sunday morning. In combination, these factors should bring tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to Guanaja, Roatan, and the central Honduras coast beginning between 4am - 8am EDT Saturday. These winds will last about 6 - 12 hours. Given the current weak state of Matthew, I doubt winds in excess of 50 mph will be seen on the Honduras coast as the storm passes to the north. The coast of Belize will be subject to a longer period of strong winds, since Matthew will be moving slower when it hits Belize, and may be a stronger storm. Expect 39+ mph winds to arrive at the coast of Belize between 6 - 10 pm EDT Saturday night, and persist for 12 - 16 hours, near where the center of Matthew makes landfall. A good way to compute these times of arrival and duration is to use our wundermap with the hurricane wind radius forecast layer turned on (Figure 1.) The main danger for Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and northern Guatemala will be from heavy rains, not wind. The forecast rain amounts of 6 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, will cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. Belize is probably most at risk from Matthew's rains.

<B><BIG>Long range forecast for Matthew</B></BIG>

Matthew is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause Matthew to slow to just 5 mph by Sunday night. The models are divided into two basic camps on what might happen next. One solution, championed by the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models, has Matthew continuing inland once it makes landfall in Belize Sunday morning or afternoon. This solution means Matthew would likely dissipate over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The other solution, given by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models, predicts Matthew will move inland over Belize for a day or so, then drift northeast and pop back out into the Western Caribbean sometime Monday or Tuesday. The key to Matthew's long range track depends upon how it interacts with a tropical low pressure area developing in the Eastern Pacific, and the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. With steering currents expected to be weak, and small changes in Matthew's track making the difference between the storm being over land or water, the long range forecast for the storm is highly uncertain. It Matthew lingers in the Western Caribbean off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for several days, the potential exists for the storm to grow into a large and dangerous major hurricane. Sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the Caribbean in this region are greater than the previous record highs set in 2005 (Figure 2), so there is plenty of fuel for a hurricane.

.../

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[Pathfinder]

Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE 14.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. MATTHEW HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BRINGING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS HONDURAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS STILL
REPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SPREADING WESTWARD MAINLY
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/242035.shtml?

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 242036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS
SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED
WESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN.

AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA.

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/242036.shtml?

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Storm Matthew drenches Central America

By FREDDY CUEVAS (AP) ? 31 minutes ago

Excerpt:

Nicaraguan authorities said they ordered the evacuation of 10,000 people.

In Honduras, authorities said they had evacuated 300 people from small communities in the Gracias a Dios province, on the border with Nicaragua.

Lisandro Rosales, head of the country's Contingencies Commission said a red alert had been declared for the five neighboring provinces of Colon, Islas de la Bahia, Atlantida, Yoro and Olancho.

The storm first hit land Friday afternoon over northeastern Nicaragua. A tropical storm watch also was in effect for the coast of Belize.

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega ordered the preventive measures and "all emergency structures are on alert," Lt. Col. Freddy Herrera told The Associated Press by telephone. "We have evacuated people from the region of Cabo Gracias a Dios and the Miskito Cays" in the same region.

Flights into the area were suspended due to limited visibility, though the winds are moderate, the military said.

.../

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gVWjsPEiqe1tEu2mhBIRaxxGi8owD9IELKEO2

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW SPREADING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND ACROSS HONDURAS...TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 85.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM ESE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE LATE
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTH THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA IN HONDURAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA IN
BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN
BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/250236.shtml

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

The tropical storm Matthew ?entered Honduras and moves towards Guatemala?



September 25, 2010: The tropical storm Matthew is heading from east to west to Guatemala, today left Nicaragua, but entered Honduras joined by heavy rains.


The authorities of Honduras declared a red alert (evacuation) due to increased rainfall, which will affect all the country tonight.

The President of Nicaragua said that ?the yellow and green alert in the Caribbean, Central and Pacific are still on.?

In Honduras, the influence of the storm was felt with rains from earlier in the day.

The storm ?Matthew? came from Nicaragua through the department of Gracias a Dios on the border with Nicaragua, where there isn?t much population.

Porfirio Lobo, president of Honduras said in radio and television network that ?his country faces a new threat? and asked God to ?be kind to their population before the passage of Tropical Storm Matthew ?.?

.../

http://momento24.com/en/2010/09/25/the-tropical-storm-matthew-entered-honduras-and-moves-towards-guatemala/

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Storm Matthew weakens to depression over Belize

By Sarah GraingerGUATEMALA CITY (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Matthew weakened to a depression as it hit Belize on Saturday but is still expected to dump rain on Guatemala, potentially damaging sugar and coffee crops.


25 September 2010 18:19 GMT


199490 <!-- Thumbnail Gallery --> Tropical Storm Matthew is pictured in the Caribbean off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua in this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite image taken and released on September 24, 2010. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Guatemalan authorities urged people in mountainous areas to head for shelters as Matthew looked set to send rains across the country, including regions prone to mudslides.

The storm lost force as it came in from the Gulf of Honduras, and its maximum sustained winds decreased to near 35 mph (55 kph) Saturday afternoon.

Coffee and sugar farmers braced for rain on already waterlogged fields from this year's active hurricane season that has already battered the region. Growers worry rain from Matthew could delay the start of coffee and sugar harvests.

"A lot of ground is already saturated and it could result in landslides," Guatemala's emergency services agency CONRED said in a statement. "We expect that in some places there could be flooding and rivers overflowing," said Eddy Morales, director of the country's meteorological institute.

High winds and heavy rain soaked Honduran tourist resorts along the Caribbean coast and hundreds of people spent the night in Honduran government-run shelters but were relieved the fast-moving storm left towns unscathed.
.../

http://news.stv.tv/world/199490-storm-matthew-weakens-to-depression-over-belize/

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Lisa Weakens, Matthew Soaks Belize

Sep 25, 2010 5:02 PM


Tropical Depression Matthew has weakened as it moved into Belize. Matthew's main threat will continue to be heavy flooding rainfall, affecting Honduras, Belize and Guatemala. The storm's forward progress will slow during the next 24 hours and Matthew will probably stall over the southern Yucatan Peninsula or northern Guatemala on Sunday night into Monday.

The storm is expected to dissipate by early next week, but not before producing life-threatening flooding rainfall over southeastern Mexico, Belize and northern Guatemala. In fact, the excessive rain could last for several days in this area.

Long-range computer forecasts continue to show a second tropical disturbance developing over the western Caribbean Sea next week. This system could intensify as it heads north toward Cuba, and it could eventually impact Florida late next week.

.../

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

[Pathfinder]

Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico


</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></B>
Updated: 3:36 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

Excerpt:


Forecast for the rest of the tropics

Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

.../
Much more:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

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Re: Matthew moved inland over eastern Nicaragua - Expected to produce torrential rain over Central America

Tropical Depression MATTHEW

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

...MATTHEW WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 92.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF MATTHEW
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. THE
LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE LOW COULD
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...35
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANT LOW OF MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES FROM FAR SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN AFTER THE
REMNANT OF MATTHEW DISSIPATES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MATTHEW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al15/al152010.public.013.shtml?

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Re: Remnant of Matthew expected to produce torrential rain over Mexico and Central America

Spanish to English translation


Matthew rains leave 8 dead in five states

by The Editors
National / General | Monday, September 27, 2010 7:04 hrs.

[A] [Reset]
Source: THE JOURNEY


At least eight people died and more than 30 are reported missing in Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Nuevo Leon by the rains of Tropical Depression Matthew, which is being degraded, but whose remnants still affect the first two entities , to which kept the orange alert for indications of the National System of Civil Protection.


In Chiapas at least one third of the county seat of Yajal?n was no light by falling poles, and inundated by the overflowing of the river Chulho, which demolished three bridges and dragged about 40 vehicles and broke into at least 200 houses and a twenty shops Linda Vista neighborhood, San Mart?n, San Antonio, Bethlehem Airfield, Jonuta, San Miguel and Center.

In the midst of heavy rainfall were found the bodies of Elena Martinez Alvarez and a man washed away and residents of Yajal?n said 30 people missing. In Chilo there are 150 homes flooded and a landslide buried a house hill whose three occupants died.

70 Lacandon families fleeing

In San Cristobal de las Casas overflow of the Yellow River flooded about 350 houses in various colonies and more than 500 people were sheltered in shelters. In Spring, a women's clinic would be opened soon also was invaded by the waters, and in the Montes Azules reserve in the Lacandon jungle some 70 families fled to Plan de Guadalupe surrounding communities.

Military, fire brigade and civil protection in boats helped evacuate the victims, while the currents generated thronged the old tunnel more than three meters in diameter and two miles long draining the county seat, and landslides prevented the movement several roads and isolated to a yet undetermined number of people.

In Ocosingo, the river affected neighborhoods Lady Maya, Buganvilias and November 20. Also suffer damage Tenejapa, Tumbal? and Salto de Agua, and there was additional landslides in various sections of roads and Palenque Pichucalco-shotgun-Rancho Nuevo.

Seven other municipalities in the jungle areas, Treble and Frailesca were affected because of heavy rains that fold since early Sunday, and remained blocked access to San Juan Chamula, Pantelh? and Chenalh?.

In Veracruz Civil Protection authorities said the alert for the next 36 hours and the overflowing of rivers Uxpanapa, San Juan, Tesechoac?n, White and Papaloapan many families did leave about 50 villages in southern municipalities.

In Tlacotalpan, and punished and evicted by previous floods, the river flow Papaloapan invaded the pier. In Tlalixcoyan White River broke a board, covered plantations and did make available the evacuation of seven villages, while in Ignacio de la Llave 3 000 have already been mobilized, and Las Choapas Uxpanapa River began to flood the village 14.

Hundreds of families were affected by the flooding of the Yellow River in San Cristobal de las Casas, Chiapas, due to heavy rains during the night of viernesFoto Hugo S?nchez

A farmer from Tezonapa drowned in flood waters from the Tonto River, which incor-nicated 32 communities and 20 Puebla Oaxaca, where the lack of help spread desolation and despair of hundreds of victims.

In Tabasco seven rivers burst their banks in recent hours and Civil Protection authorities kept alert by the storms of Matthew, which the National Water Commission produced accumulations of up to 112 mm.

Reduce Pe?itas sufficiency

Authorities reduced the sufficiency of Penitas dam of 2 000 300 to 2000 cubic meters per second, which is channeled into rivers Carrizal and Samaria, as the Pichucalco overwhelmed in the region of La Sierra, the Grijalva, which runs against Villahermosa, banana and Tacotalpa. Only in the latter exceeded the critical level 2.82 meters, and the Usumacinta one meter in Boca del Cerro.

Many communities in the municipalities of Cunduac?n, Nacajuca, Jonuta, Emiliano Zapata, Tenosique Centla, balanced and centered emergency maintained, but they were inundated by floodwaters of the rivers Carrizal and Samaria and Usumacinta.

In the capital of Oaxaca a landslide of Cerro del Fortin totally blocked the four-lane highway that connects north and east of the city, and with the likelihood of more heavy rains in the coming hours the authorities issued an alert to the regions of the basin Papaloapan, Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Coast, Central Valley and Southern Highlands.

Two drowned in Guerrero

In Acapulco, Guerrero, disappeared at sea Cano Cristian Suarez, 30-year-old native of Mexico City, and the municipality of Petatlan, about 20 miles west of Rio Chiquito, appeared in a bower the decomposing body of the minor C?sar Adri?n Mateos Morales.

In Allende, Nuevo Le?n, the bodies of two men who drowned in the stream of the river Mireles, but a third person accompanying them was still missing after the mishap in which his car was swept away.

At night, more than 80 people were evacuated as a preventive measure for Santa Fe housing complexes and Loma Larga, Monterrey Colonia Doctores, by the breaking away of the Cerro de la Loma Larga. The rocks that fell from the hill did not harm people or the building, although it reached some vehicles that were in a parking lot.


Original text:

http://www.nssoaxaca.com/nacional/122-general/49374-lluvias-por-matthew-dejan-8-muertos-en-cinco-estados

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Remnant of Matthew produces torrential rain over Mexico and Central America - Mexico Landslide in Oaxaca May Have Killed as Many as 1,000

<CITE class=byline>Mexico Landslide in Oaxaca May Have Killed as Many as 1,000, Governor Says</CITE>
<CITE class=byline></CITE>
<CITE class=byline>By Jens Erik Gould and Adriana Lopez Caraveo -<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>document.write(dateFormat(new Date(1285684655000),"mmm d, yyyy h:MM TT Z"));</SCRIPT> Sep 28, 2010 9:37 AM CT <NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></CITE>

A landslide in the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca that covered people?s homes while they slept may have killed between 600 and 1,000 people, the state?s governor Ulises Ruiz said.

Severe rains caused a hillside collapse that may have destroyed as many as 300 houses around 4 a.m. local time in the town of Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, Oaxaca, Ruiz said in an interview on the Televisa network.

The military is helping with the rescue and is having trouble reaching the remote rural town, located at least three hours by car from the state capital, because landslides have blocked roads, Ruiz said. The Defense Ministry?s press office said it didn?t have any information on rescue efforts.

?We still haven?t reached the town,? Ruiz said. ?We?re sending machinery, army personnel, police, ambulances and rescue workers.?

The Oaxaca landslides come days after Hurricane Karl forced some 16,000 people to evacuate their homes in Veracruz state. Veracruz city?s civil protection chief, Isidro Cano Luna, said it was the worst storm in the area since 1955, the Associated Press reported. A landslide also killed at least five people in the state of Mexico on Sept. 20.

In Colombia, as many as 30 people were trapped after heavy rains caused a landslide on a road near Medellin, Caracol Radio reported today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jens Erik Gould at jgould9@bloomberg.net; Adriana Lopez Caraveo in Mexico City at adrianalopez@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-28/mexico-landslide-in-oaxaca-may-have-killed-as-many-as-1-000-governor-says.html

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Remnant of Matthew produces torrential rain over Mexico and Central America - Landslide buries hundreds of homes in Mexico

Mexico: Landslide (as of 28 Sep 2010) - Location Map




<!--docTitle--><!--Attention ligne utilis?e pour l'impression--><!--Attention ligne utilis?e pour l'impression-->

• Date: 28 Sep 2010<!-- date -->
• Type: Natural Disaster<!-- map type -->
• Keyword(s): Affected Population; Landslide; Natural Disaster; Tropical Storm<!-- keywords -->
• Format(s):
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• Source(s):
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  - Landslide buries hundreds of homes in Mexico

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