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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory - MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH
Hurricane Laura Public Advisory - MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH
Tropical Depression 13 formed late Wednesday with it projected to grow into a tropical storm and head toward Florida over the weekend.
In the 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, the system was located 1,035 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph moving west-northwest at 20 mph.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
...LAURA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 91.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.4 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion
should continue today, followed by a north-northwestward motion
tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland
near those areas tonight or Thursday morning.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a dangerous category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and is forecast to continue
strengthening into a category 4 hurricane later today. Rapid
weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.
Laura is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Buoy 42395, located
just east of Laura's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 74
mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a wave
height of 37 feet (11 meters).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the next few hours.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.
RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from
central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and
southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This
rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along
small streams.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.
SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to
reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
Laura grew nearly 70% in power in just 24 hours
...
By Associated Press | August 26, 2020 at 5:03 AM CDT - Updated August 26 at 9:11 AM
GALVESTON, Texas (AP) — Hurricane Laura is forecast to rapidly power up into a “catastrophic” Category 4 hurricane, even stronger than previously expected, as it churns toward Texas and Louisiana, swirling wind and water over much of the Gulf of Mexico.
...
“Some areas, when they wake up Thursday morning, they’re not going to believe what happened,” said Stacy Stewart, a senior hurricane specialist.
“We could see storm surge heights more than 15 feet in some areas,” Stewart said. “What doesn’t get blown down by the wind could easily get knocked down by the rising ocean waters pushing well inland.”
... “Heed the advice of your local authorities. If they tell you to go, go! Your life depends on it today,” said Joel Cline, tropical program coordinator at the National Weather Service. “It’s a serious day and you need to listen to them.”
...
In the largest U.S. evacuation during this pandemic era, more than half a million people were ordered Tuesday to flee from their homes near the Texas-Louisiana state line, including the Texas cities of Beaumont, Galveston and Port Arthur, and the low-lying Calcasieu and Cameron parishes in southwestern Louisiana, where forecasters said storm surge topped by waves could submerge whole communities.
...
BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Laura is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the north-northwestward and north is expected later today and
tonight. On the forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland
within that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move
over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday
night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph
(205 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening
in expected and Laura is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane
this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes
landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the next few hours.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.This storm
surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall makes landfall tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning
area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.
RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast
from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much
of Arkansas. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban
flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and
minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding.
By Friday into Saturday, Laura will produce rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
mid-Mississippi and portions of the Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee
Valleys. This rainfall may lead to localized flash and urban
flooding and rapid rises on small streams.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.
SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the entire U.S. Gulf
coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern
Mexico These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
Laura has become a very powerful hurricane this morning. The
satellite presentation has continued to improve with the eye
becoming better defined, and cloud tops colder than -70C in the
surrounding ring of deep convection. Both NOAA and Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft have provided valuable data this morning.
The NOAA P-3 aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 125 kt at
8000 ft, and a peak SFMR wind of 104 kt, while the Air Force crew
has observed peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 121 kt and peak SFMR
winds of 104 kt. The lastest minimum pressure estimated from
aircraft data is 956 mb, indicating a pressure drop of 27 mb over
the past 12 hours. Based on the aircraft data, the initial wind
speed was increased to 100 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory,
and is now set at 110 kt based on the latest flight-level and SFMR
winds.
Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low. Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening will
occur, but Laura will bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast, but given the
uncertainties at that time range the forecast continues to show it
as a post-tropical cyclone at days 4 and 5.
Laura is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north are expected within the next 12-18
hours as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-
level ridge that extends from the western Atlantic into the
southeastern United States. This motion will bring the center of
Laura onshore in southwestern Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas
tonight. By Thursday night, Laura is forecast to turn northeastward,
and then east-northeastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical track models are in good
agreement, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast track
was required.
Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan
City, Louisiana, with catastrophic wind damage expected where
Lauras eyewall makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts will spread well inland across portions of
eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.
3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far
eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy
rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential
will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.
Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...200 PM
CDT POSITION UPDATE... ...
CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...
Water levels are beginning to rise along the coast of Louisiana. A National Ocean Service water level station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, recently reported about 3.2 feet of inundation above ground level.
The Eugene Island NOS station also recently measured sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).
Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.
If you were not ordered to evacuate, be prepared to take shelter in a sturdy structure in an interior room away from windows on the lowest floor possible. Dangerous winds will last for hours in many locations tonight and/or tomorrow.
BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
...WINDS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM
AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 92.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 92.9 West. Laura is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, and a northward motion should continue
on Thursday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is
expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura
will approach the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this
evening and move inland within that area tonight. The center of
Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow,
across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley
on Friday.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches
the northwest Gulf coast overnight. Rapid weakening is expected
after Laura moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently
reported at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay.
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the
warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
next few hours.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura's eyewall moves onshore tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within
the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread
northwestward within the warning areas this evening.
Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.
RAINFALL: From this evening through Friday, Laura is expected to
produce the following rainfall totals:
Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and
the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated
totals of 18 inches.
Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern
Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches.
Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10
inches.
This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small
streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.
By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:
Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises
on small streams.
Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches.
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected this evening through
tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern
Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into
Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi.
SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast
from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
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