2011 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast (August 03) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray

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EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011

We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

(as of 1 June 2011)

By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/june2011/jun2011.pdf

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

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Re: 2011 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast (as of 1 June 2011) By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray

For Immediate Release
Wednesday, August 03, 2011


Hurricane Forecast Team at Colorado State University Continues to Call for Active Season

FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team today maintained its earlier seasonal hurricane forecasts, calling for 16 named storms in the Atlantic basin for the 2011 season.

The combination of neutral El Nino ? Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific along with continued warm sea surface temperature anomalies and unusually low sea-level pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic will likely lead to a very active hurricane season, Colorado State scientists said.

?We are predicting the same levels of activity that we were forecasting in early April and June due to favorable Atlantic and neutral ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific,? said William Gray, in his 28th year of forecasting at Colorado State.

Klotzbach and Gray estimate the 2011 season will have roughly as much activity as was experienced in four similar years: 1952, 1966, 2005 and 2008.

The team also updated its U.S. landfall probabilities, which are calculated based on historical landfall statistics and then adjusted by the latest seasonal forecast.

More...

http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/5821

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FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2011
We have maintained our forecast from early April and early June and continue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2011 due to an expected favorable Atlantic and neutral ENSO conditions. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
(as of 3 August 2011)

By Philip J. Klotzbach

1 and William M. Gray2
This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

More...

http://www.news.colostate.edu/conten...ts/aug2011.pdf