Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

[Snowy Owl]

CNN: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/CNN_Le...ming_0312.html<o:p></o:p>

David Edwards
Published: Monday March 12, 2007<o:p></o:p>

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The Associated Press recently obtained leaked portions of the draft of an international scientific report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. <o:p></o:p>

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The report "paints a grim picture of life on our planet in the coming decades," reports CNN's Miles O'Brien.<o:p></o:p>
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This leaked report is intended as a follow-up to a larger summary report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month. <o:p></o:p>
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The new report goes into detail about surprising changes to the way we live. It alleges that climate changes are happening faster than earlier predicted.<o:p></o:p>
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By the year 2050, one billion Asians will lack water, the small glaciers of Europe will begin disappearing, large glaciers will change "drastically," and ozone-related deaths will rise 4.5 percent in large cities. <o:p></o:p>
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In 2050, up to six hundred million people will be hungry due to climate changes. <o:p></o:p>
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Diseases such as Malaria and Dengue Fever "will run rampant." <o:p></o:p>
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Scientists predict by the year 2080, three billion Asians will lack water and as many as one hundred million people may be affected by rising sea levels. <o:p></o:p>
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According to the Associated Press, "some scientists said the overall message is not likely to change when it?s issued in early April in Brussels, the same city where European Union leaders agreed this past week to drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2020."<o:p></o:p>
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"The report offers some hope if countries slow and then reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but it notes that what?s happening now isn?t encouraging," Seth Borenstein reported for the AP. "'Changes in climate are now affecting physical and biological systems on every continent,'" the report says, in marked contrast to a 2001 report by the same international group that said the effects of global warming were coming. But that report only mentioned scattered regional effects."<o:p></o:p>
The following video report is from CNN's American Morning.<o:p></o:p>

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TRANSCRIPT:<o:p></o:p>
#<o:p></o:p>

O'BRIEN:
There's a new and stark report on global warming that's out this morning.
It paints a grim picture of life on our planet in the coming decades.

The report comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

It represents 2,000 of the world's leading scientists.

It's a more detailed follow-up to that big summary report we told you about early last month.

Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press got a hold of a leaked draft copy and it shows things are happening faster than scientists expected.

Let's take a look at some of the issues we're talking about.
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By 2050, more than 1 billion people in Asia will have a lack of water.

By 2080, that number will be 3 billion. That's a stark number indeed.<o:p></o:p>

By 2050, the small glaciers of Europe will begin disappearing. The large glaciers will shrink dramatically.

By 2050, in the 2050s, smog in U.S. cities will worsen, ozone related deaths from climate will increase by 4.5 percent.
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This is by 2050 as well. Another global warming impact.

Between 200 and 600 million people will be hungry because of warming.

Diseases like Malaria and Dengue Fever will run rampant. By 2080, 100 million people each year could be flooded by rising seas.
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And here's one interesting glimmer of good news, if you will, through all of this. At first, at least, more crops will be grown in areas outside of the tropics where there will be longer growing seasons. Of course, over the long run, that could diminish.
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The report written and reviewed by several of the world's leading scientists, up to 1,000 of them involved directly in that report.

It's still being edited by officials from the governments.

The official report is due out next month. We'll keep you updated.<o:p></o:p>

[JJackson]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

It's still being edited by officials from the governments.
[/

The most worrying line in the atricle?

[Niko]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

For some other topical reading and alternate theories...

http://standeyo.com/NEWS/07_Earth_Changes/070312.GW.Sun.html

other earth changes articles...

http://standeyo.com/NEWS/07_Earth_Changes/07_Earth_Change_Index.html

Disclaimer: In my opinion the above site presents a well balanced collection of climate change reports. However, the site owners' personal opinions would not be considered "mainstream". This is their take on the situation:

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="688"> <tbody><tr> <td> HOLLY NOTE: We firmly believe this [in reference to: Greenhouse Effect Is a Myth, It May Be the Sun, Say Scientists] is one of the reasons government is trying so hard to keep global warming stories, silence scientists like NOAA's James Hansen and "rewrite news" that goes against Whitehouse policy. If global warming is blamed on humans and they continually warn us to change our ways, people see it as fixable; there's no need to worry. Yes, greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, but they aren't the main cause. How could greenhouse gases on Earth affect Mars, and Jupiter which are also warming?

However, the Sun's output is beyond our capabilities to fix. . . panic may follow and thus, harm the economy. It's all about control of people and money.

That said, even if CO₂ emissions weren't a significant cause of global warming, we should make every effort to implement alternate energy methods. Who isn't sick of being held hostage by oil conglomerates and Mideast nations?

Natural disasters will only increase as weather becomes more violent. Prepare your home and family with our FREE information. Regardless of cause, we must all be ready to face nature's onslaught. We've already had a nasty taste of what's to come and it won't get better. It is unfortunate that the phrase "global warming" became synonymous with man-made only factors, because bottom line, the planet IS heating regardless of causes(s) and we must deal and live with the consequences.

And one last special note to Christians. Though Genesis 1:26 says God gave man dominion over everything on Earth, that shouldn't be construed as a license to exploit. We are tasked as caretakers, not destroyers of gifts.
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[sharon sanders]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Summary for Policymakers

Some excerpts:

...Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global
average sea level (see Figure SPM-3). {3.2, 4.2, 5.5}

? Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature9 (since 1850). The updated 100-year linear trend (1906?2005) of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92]?C is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901-2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]?C. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]?C per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years. The total temperature increase from 1850 ? 1899 to 2001 ? 2005 is 0.76 [0.57 to 0.95]?C.

Urban heat island effects are real but local, and have a negligible influence (less than 0.006?C per decade over land and zero over the oceans) on these values. {3.2}....

..The global atmospheric concentration of methane has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in the early 1990s, and is 1774 ppb in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of methane in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb) as determined from ice cores. Growth rates have declined since the early 1990s, consistent with total emissions (sum of anthropogenic and
natural sources) being nearly constant during this period. It is very likely6 that the observed increase in methane concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, predominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use, but relative contributions from different source types are not well determined. {2.3, 7.4}..

..At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitationamounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones10. {3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 5.2}
? Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. Arctic temperatures have high decadal variability, and a warm period was also observed from 1925 to 1945. {3.2}
? Satellite data since 1978 show that annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade. These values are consistent with those reported in the TAR. {4.4}
? Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer have generally increased since the 1980s in the Arctic (by up to 3?C). The maximum area covered by seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, with a decrease in spring of up to 15%. {4.7}
? Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount over many large regions11. Significantly increased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. Drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. Precipitation is highly variable spatially and temporally, and data are limited in some regions. Long-term trends have not been observed for the other large regions assessed11. {3.3, 3.9}
? Changes in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans are suggested by freshening of mid and high latitude waters together with increased salinity in low latitude waters. {5.2}
? Mid-latitude westerly winds have strengthened in both hemispheres since the 1960s. {3.5}
? More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation have contributed to changes in drought. Changes in sea surface temperatures (SST), wind patterns, and decreased snowpack and snow cover have also been linked to droughts. {3.3}
? The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour. {3.8, 3.9}...

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

[sharon sanders]

The Drafting Authors are from many different countries

Drafting Authors:
Richard Alley, Terje Berntsen, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Zhenlin Chen, Amnat Chidthaisong, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jonathan Gregory,
Gabriele Hegerl, Martin Heimann, Bruce Hewitson, Brian Hoskins, Fortunat Joos, Jean Jouzel, Vladimir Kattsov, Ulrike Lohmann,
Martin Manning, Taroh Matsuno, Mario Molina, Neville Nicholls, Jonathan Overpeck, Dahe Qin, Graciela Raga, Venkatachalam
Ramaswamy, Jiawen Ren, Matilde Rusticucci, Susan Solomon, Richard Somerville, Thomas F. Stocker, Peter Stott, Ronald J.
Stouffer, Penny Whetton, Richard A. Wood, David Wratt
Draft Contributing Authors:
Julie Arblaster, Guy Brasseur, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Kenneth Denman, David W. Fahey, Piers Forster, Eystein Jansen,
Philip D. Jones, Reto Knutti, Herv? Le Treut, Peter Lemke, Gerald Meehl, Philip Mote, David Randall, D?ith? A. Stone, Kevin E.
Trenberth, J?rgen Willebrand, Francis Zwiers

[sharon sanders]

Causes of global warming include greenhouse gas emissions and methane gas

"...Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would

very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century. {10.3}...

...It is very unlikely that climate changes of at least the seven centuries prior to 1950 were due to variability generated within the climate system alone...."

[gsgs]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

my summary:

actually 0.13?C temperature increase per decade.


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> In 2050, up to six hundred million people will be hungry due
> to climate changes.

how to define "hungry" ? how many are "hungry" now ? how many
would be estimated to be "hungry" in 2050 in total ? (all causes)

[Niko]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

It was not my intent to misinform. If you focused on the faith of the person you missed the point. FWIW, I think the evidence of global warming is overwhelming. I have no agenda when it comes to climatic changes, but I do seek the truth, as in all things. I follow earth changes almost as closely as I follow flu and I am very concerned about the potential impact on the world's people (first and foremost) and all living things. The cause of global warming is not a settled issue for me (I'm a scekptic at heart, I suppose ). I continue to read and learn. I hope that clarifies my intent.


If anyone has connections to those with answers, I have a couple of questions. Why was the U.S. Navy's FNMOC SST Anomaly Map , once available publicly on the internet, pulled and replaced with a permission only lesser quality resource? Why was the KP index scale increased from a max of 6 (7?) to 9+ in the last six months - especially since we are supposedly in a solar minimum period? Why was the SOHO solar images on "bake-out" for several weeks last fall around the same time the KP index scale was increased? These are changes I have observed - they did not come from other sources.

Please Niko,

Stop presenting the Christian Doomers theories and stay corroborated.

The first posts says clearly, 2,000 scientist from all faiths, all cultures and all political denominations are making statements.

Please stop disinforming.

Snowy Owl

[Laidback Al]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

Niko

I am trying to understand your position. The main post talks about the the detrimental effects of global warming, not the causes of global warming. Your posts suggests that you want to debate the causes of global warming, but that you recognize the negative consequences of increasing global temperatures.

If the consequences are so severe, what difference does it make what the causes are?

[gsgs]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

causes are important for deciding what we can do to stop it

[Niko]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

Niko

I am trying to understand your position. The main post talks about the the detrimental effects of global warming, not the causes of global warming. Your posts suggests that you want to debate the causes of global warming, but that you recognize the negative consequences of increasing global temperatures.

If the consequences are so severe, what difference does it make what the causes are?

The cause is of great importance due to limited resources and the allocation of those resources to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Whether the debate over climate change is one that FT should be involved in is up to others to decide. However, to put forth one perspective, as if the data is incontrovertible, does not serve our community well, IMO. The only reason I continue to follow and post on this topic at FT is to present the scientific minority viewpoint. I don't reject the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but I do question them.

Lastly, if I may draw an analogy to "bird flu"....
Some (including me ) persist in debating, studying and analyzing the mechanism of viral change and the means of global spread via migratory birds versus smuggling, or "fill in the blank". Meanwhile, vax plants aren't being built, communities are not readied and people are still sleeping with their chickens! Just as I don't think that a pandemic can be averted, I don't think climate change can be reversed or stopped. Therefore the question becomes: where do we spend our time and resources to lessen the impact?

Other mods can decide to leave this or move it. I'm in too deep to make that decision at this point.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

Thanks for responding, Niko.

I am glad your clarified your view. I agree with both you and gsgs that we need to allocate scarce resources to solve the problems at hand whether it is with pandemic preparations or global climate change.

I only asked the question because the link you posted suggests that global warming is an astronomical (extra-worldly event) which we as humans have no potential for controlling or mitigating. Claiming an extra-terrestrial cause absolves us of any responsibility. If, on the other hand, human behavior affects climate change than there is room for adjustments to mitigate the effects of global warming.

I appreciate your analogy to bird flu. You, me, and the rest of members at FT are here participating and sharing only because we think we can affect the course of the next pandemic. Not just for ourselves, but also for our friends and neighbors and people we don't even know. A proactive approach can have important repercussions for mitigating the effects of a pandemic as well as climate change. We just won't be able to do anything about the 11 year solar cycle.
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[sharon sanders]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

"Other mods can decide to leave this or move it. I'm in too deep to make that decision at this point. "

We encourage debate.

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Leaked report predicts global warming chaos

Sorry but I have to land here,

Global warming and climate change has an HUGE impact on the Aedes mosquitoes for exemple.

Lets kill it in the bud at the larvae phase.

I have to say tough that I bear with Niko on upsurge of the speed of light particles from our Sun, all all these balck-out, SOHO problems and slip-siding.

I am not far to believe that the upsurge of virulence has something to do with the atmosphere.

But yes we can make a difference, we have identify most of the Breeding areas, people have to do their share NOW and it reduce morbidity and mortality.

Witnessing all these upsurges we should do what we can in action.