Sol Phys - Weakest Solar Cycle of the Space Age: A Study on Solar Wind–Magnetosphere Energy Coupling and Geomagnetic Activity

[Emily]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11207-021-01774-9
Hajra, R. Weakest Solar Cycle of the Space Age: A Study on Solar Wind–Magnetosphere Energy Coupling and Geomagnetic Activity. Sol Phys 296, 33 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-021-01774-9

Abstract

Solar Cycle 24, from December 2008 to December 2019, is recorded to be the weakest in magnitude in the space age (after 1957). A comparative study of this cycle with Solar Cycles 20 through 23 is presented. It is found that Solar Cycle 24 is not only the weakest in solar activity, but also in average solar wind parameters and solar wind–magnetosphere energy coupling. This resulted in lower geomagnetic activity, lower numbers of high-intensity long-duration continuous auroral electrojet (AE) activity (HILDCAA) events and geomagnetic storms. The Solar Cycle 24 exhibited a ≈54 – 61% reduction in HILDCAA occurrence rate (per year), ≈15 – 34% reduction in moderate storms (−50 nT≥Dst>−100 nT), ≈49 – 75% reduction in intense storms (−100 nT≥Dst>−250 nT) compared to previous cycles, and no superstorms (Dst≤−250 nT). Implications of the solar and geomagnetic weakening to space weather science and operations are discussed.

...

3. Conclusions
The present work indicates a strong impact of the solar activity cycle magnitude on the so-
lar wind–magnetosphere energy coupling and resultant geomagnetic activity. The weakest
magnitude of SolarCycle24 isfound to be associated with an overall reduction in en-
ergy coupling and reduced numbers of magnetic storms and HILDCAAs. The stronger the
storms, the stronger the reduction in number with no superstorms in Solar Cycle 24. This
has a great impact on the cosmic ray shielding. As shown in the present work, reduced solar
activity makes the near-Earth space exposed to a higher flux of cosmic rays. This can have
important effects on manned missions at low Earth orbit or to the Moon and Mars.
Recent studies predict the solar activity entering in a period of grand minimum (e.g.
Wang,2017; Jiang and Cao,2018; Upton and Hathaway,2018; Gonçalves, Echer, and Frigo,
2020, and references therein). This may lead to a much lower solar wind energy input in the
magnetosphere and a further decrease in geomagnetic activity events. This has large impacts
on space weather effects and technological applications

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[Sunshine123]

Bump again. This will soon dominate events.

[Emily]

Bump again. This will soon dominate events.

Thanks for the heads up! This seems a big surprise. Consensus was that SC25 would be low activity, some even brought up the possiblity of another Little Ice Age, but now it looks like McIntosh was right.

Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot Solar Cycle 25 magnitude.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/

Solar Cycle 25 is Exceeding Predictions and Showing Why We Need the GDC Mission

December 2019 marked the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. The Sun’s activity has quickly ramped up and even though we haven’t reached peak levels in this cycle, the Sun’s activity is already exceeding predictions. Solar events will continue to increase as we near solar maximum in 2025, and our lives and technology on Earth, as well as satellites and astronauts in space, will be impacted.
...

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA, predicted that this would be a below-average solar cycle, like the one before it – Solar Cycle 24. However, the Sun has been much more active this cycle than anticipated. The cycle is aligning more with a study from a team lead by Scott McIntosh of National Center for Atmospheric Research, published in Solar Physics.
...

With more activity comes an increase in space weather events including solar flares and solar eruptions, which can impact radio communications, electric power grids, and navigation signals, as well as pose risks to spacecraft and astronauts. We have an increasing dependence on space-based technology and ground-based infrastructure that are susceptible to the dynamic nature of space. For many new commercial and government stakeholders, this already stronger-than-expected solar cycle will be the first they navigate.
...

Space Weather & Global Impacts

There are more than 35,000 objects orbiting in the ionosphere-thermosphere region around our planet, including the International Space Station, weather and communications satellites, and other operational government assets, with many more being launched each year. When the ionosphere-thermosphere system is pummeled by solar and geomagnetic activity, these assets are adversely affected. For example:

• Variable satellite drag due to atmospheric heating modifies spacecraft operations and orbits. This can cause satellites to reenter Earth’s atmosphere prematurely, decrease satellite lifetimes, increase the risk of orbital collisions, and cause spacecraft to be out of optimal position for their mission.
• Radiofrequency communication and navigation capabilities are degraded.
  • • GPS positioning experiences errors due to the ionospheric disturbances (in plasma density) that occur on regional scales (a continent or larger).
    • Space-to-surface transmission noise is increased. This affects military monitoring of the north polar region and communications globally.
• During times of geomagnetic activity, the near-polar regions experience high fluxes of radiation in the form of energetic particles. These particles can travel to low altitudes, where they become a concern for airplane flight crew and passenger health.
• When intense electrical currents driven by space weather flow overhead in the I-T system, they can produce enormous “mirror” currents in power lines and pipelines. These currents can damage or destroy critical infrastructure, leading to expensive power outages or maintenance and repair costs....

[Emily]

https://dl.acm.org/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1145%2F3452296.3472916&file=332-public-review.pdf

Solar Superstorms: Planning for an Internet
Apocalypse –Public Review

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[Sunshine123]

Thank you Emily for your information. I will use these articles to update my information.

Yes, our solar system is spinning around in a soup of electrical currents. Yes, there are different sources for the electrical charges. Absolutely everyone should be prepared for earth taking an electromagnetic hit, soon.

I will try and post this from Oxford Academic but I’m really rusty and might get lost.


A New Understanding of Why the Aurora has Explosive Characteristics

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advan...dFrom=fulltext

Syun-Ichi Akasofu
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, stac3187, https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac3187
Published:

16 November 2022
Abstract

This article describes a new understanding of the explosive nature of auroras, called auroral substorms, on the basis of a series of processes, from power supply (dynamo), circuit/current and dissipation (auroral substorms)–the electric current approach, in which the magnetosphere or more specifically the primary Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling system (the primary M-I system) plays a crucial role. The primary M-I system has an anomaly; it cannot dissipate the dynamo power much for about one hour after the dynamo power becomes above 10¹¹ w. This anomaly is due to a low conductivity of the quiet-time ionosphere to dissipate increasing power. Thus, the power is accumulated in the inner magnetosphere (at about 6 Re; Re = earth's radius) as magnetic energy, inflating the inner magnetosphere. When the accumulated energy reaches to about 10¹⁶ J, the primary M-I system seems to become unstable and unload impulsively the accumulated magnetic energy, deflating the magnetosphere. This deflating process generates the secondly M-I system, which is associated with an electric field 5-50 mV/m and field-aligned currents, ionizing the ionosphere and increasing the conductivity. Therefore, the primary M-I system can performs like an ordinary electrical system. It is this particular nature, which exhibits explosive auroral displays. This paper describes systematically and semi-quantitatively key points of this series of processes based on a few decades of work. The electric current approach is rather ‘new’ in substorm research, and thus is rudimental at its development stage, so that n crucial issues are mentioned for future studies at the end.


My words; Basically, earth’s atmosphere is developing holes, letting in large amounts of radiation. The pink auroras in Norway on Nov 3, 2022 were the results of weak earth shields and let strong solar/space radiation in.

Earth’s shields are disintegrating and we have incoming.

On October 9 2022 earth was hit by the strongest gamma ray burst ever recorded. GRBs come from different sources other than the sun.

https://www.space.com/gamma-ray-burst-brightest-of-all-time

Word from on high is Jan 5 2023 earth will be hit with a magnetar ray. Leading up to that date electromagnetic storms will develop.

Yes, prepare for an internet apocalypse. The internet won’t go down but the fine electrical equipment to access the net will be fried.

Faraday cage and harden essential electronics.

I tell the kids to buy a new cellphone and keep it in its original packaging, unopened. Toss the phone in the vegetable bin in the refrigerator. Close the door. It will be used within two months.

I love Flutrackers work and you folks have to stay ahead of the curve. The radiation is going cause massive immune deficiency symptoms, a contagions’ haven. I will update as I get it.

Sunshine123

[longshots]

youtube channel - Suspicious 0bservers (that is a zero, not capital letter o)

[Sunshine123]

Yes, Ben and I go way back, but that’s another story. I dropped by because I do have an update (Ben and Dutch have both been given this same info).

The magnetar will pass through earth, heating the core. The core and magma will expand increasing earth’s internal pressure. The next layer of earth is filled with huge underground oceans x5. All of earth’s oceans can fill up one underground ocean.

Lots of water.

One of the first geological effects from the magnetar burst will be flooding caused by the core expanding from the heat and squeezing these huge oceans of water up to the surface. Most of us will have to deal with rising water from the ground up, no rainfall. You look out your window then go for a cup of coffee, return to water at your door.

Stay away from the coastline and lowlands. If you are in these areas have a plan to find higher ground. You have to be prepared to grab your faraday cage and head for the hills, basically.

The word is getting out because people have to be prepared to keep US up and running but not scare the masses. Take it or leave it, but having a plan is the smart choice.

I will be back if I have more.

Sunshine123

[Sunshine123]

At the moderators discretion; if this is not allowed please remove the link. More info on the Oct 9 GRB and the next one Jan 5.

https://youtu.be/DlZyVO2JYSY

Sunshine123

[Emily]

At the moderators discretion; if this is not allowed please remove the link. More info on the Oct 9 GRB and the next one Jan 5.

https://youtu.be/DlZyVO2JYSY

Sunshine123

ETA: I see you posted upstream that the energy did already reach Earth.

Looks interesting to me. I'm unclear if the energy from the 10/9 event has reached Earth yet. From the link at the video:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.12855.pdf

...
The analysis here presented clearly demonstrates that
gammarays with energies of up to∼1PeV from
GRB 221009A could reach Earth if they are by-products
of UHECR interactions during propagation. No phenom-
ena such as LIV or photon-ALP interconversion are re-
quired to explain the observations.The real question
is whether temporal and angular coincidences would be
preserved in this case, considering that both the UHE-
CRs and the charged component of the electromagnetic
cascades could be delayed with respect to the burst.
Through simple estimates and one-dimensional simula-
tions I argued that the highest-energy cosmic rays with
E&40 EeV could realistically evade this limitation if:
IGMFs in cosmic voids are weaker than.10−17T;
the GRB is not located in the central region of its host
galaxy cluster; the GRB jet is not aligned with cosmic
filaments. All of these conditions could be satisfied real-
istically. Therefore, GRB 221009A could be a source of
UHECRs.