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A current outbreak or not yet reach the top five complications in children under the age of the respondents are more http://health.jschina.com.cn 2009-12-17 09:28:00 Expert:
Planning Office, Director of WHO's global influenza, pandemic influenza, the Special Adviser on Keiji Fukuda
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Virus Disease Control and Prevention deputy director of the National Influenza Center director Shu Yuelong
China Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Emergency Yu Hongjie, deputy director of the Office of
Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director DENG Ying
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist, chief expert Zeng Guang
A stream next spring whether the end of the
● disease could not reach the top
Q: Some media reports to the next spring, the peak of influenza A H1N1 influenza may be over. You think how it would develop: It is becoming a seasonal influenza, or another large outbreak?
Keiji Fukuda A: We have been to reiterate that the discussion now, the peak of influenza A H1N1 influenza when it will end too early, let alone to predict what next spring will be the case. Basically, we do not know, can not guess how the influenza A H1N1 influenza viruses change.
At present, the level of activity Influenza A H1N1 influenza on a global scale has not yet reached its peak, the virus active in the northern hemisphere, although in some countries there have been signs of weakening, but still some countries where cases are rising, the current third wave of the epidemic can not be excluded the possibility of an outbreak. If the new infections, or severe cases continued to decline in a few weeks, or until 80% of the world's population are immune to the virus only after the A stream may say that the epidemic has been in the past.
I expect that sometime in 2010, we held some formal meetings, just, objective and scientific evaluation of the Influenza A H1N1 influenza, in order to understand what we actually are in the epidemic areas to explore whether we will face the first three-wave epidemic, or whether we can declare the epidemic has passed.
Yu Hongjie Answer: some of the traditional seasonal flu known as influenza, Influenza H1N1 influenza itself is an influenza. In the future for a long time, it may be converted to seasonal influenza.
I understand that in a closed population, if a natural infection with vaccine reached 50%, you can block the virus in this closed population spread.
Lower death rate than do large influenza
● ultimate fatality rate to one year after the end of the epidemic in order statistics
Q: With regard to reports of Influenza A H1N1 influenza mortality rates continue to increase, this can be understood as the epidemic in increased?
Zeng Guang Answer: On the surface, this is a sudden outbreak is actually the accumulation results. Since the first cases in North America found that after the cases are continuously passaged, and the more passaged more. Now more than six months have passed, the incidence of base, base increased significantly. Since the basic rate increase, the patient naturally increased.
Keiji Fukuda A: Based on the available data, WHO can not calculate the death rate of influenza A H1N1 influenza. To discuss an epidemic of death rates, we need to have data from individual countries, and then the use of different calculation models to assess how many deaths and cases of outbreaks. I believe that the epidemic peak in the past, perhaps a year or two, we can finally estimate mortality. At present, according to U.S. calculations, influenza A H1N1 influenza death rate of 0.018 percent, not to the 1918 influenza pandemic mortality 1%.
A stream would have won re-do
● virus, large-scale variation may be caused by the vaccine failure
Q: If a person has been infected by an influenza A H1N1 influenza, but also re-infection? Why?
Yu Hongjie A: Influenza A H1N1 influenza virus was confirmed by the end of April this year, so far, its own antigenic and genetic characteristics have not changed. In other words, got a flow, or have been vaccinated and later, be able to generate the virus-specific immune antibodies, in theory, will no longer have to.
Keiji Fukuda A: People will be several ways of infectious diseases, immunity, one of which is the actual disease.
Under normal circumstances, after an influenza infection, the immune few years at least. But there could well be repeated on the same plant type virus infection, of course, this is a rare phenomenon.
Drug-resistant virus will not
● drug-resistant virus does not spread
Q: The United Kingdom reported cases of Tamiflu-resistant, followed by reports of another virus mutates, it will not have contact between the two? We are currently using drugs is still valid?
Shu Yuelong A: The virus mutation and drug resistance is completely different. At present, the global drug-resistant strains detected in the proportion of less than 1%, indicating that drug-resistant strains did not become a major epidemic strain. But it can not become a pandemic strain, it's hard to say. Up to now, we are of antiviral drugs is still valid.
Yu Hongjie A: First, to the end of October, the world's 39 drug-resistant viruses were isolated, and relatively numerous compared with the virus isolated from a tiny minority. Secondly, there is no evidence that drug-resistant viruses transmitted between people, or these drug-resistant viruses are epidemiological links between cases. And that these drug-resistant strains of zanamivir is still very sensitive, and just the thought of oseltamivir resistance.
Keiji Fukuda A: Currently, drug-resistant strain was found, mainly from some patients with severe immune deficiencies who isolated. I must say, as long as in the early days, the proper use of antiviral drugs can still get a very good therapeutic effect. But for those who have the potential underlying diseases, in particular, the immune dysfunction, we should pay close attention to drug efficacy. At the same time, but also pay close attention to virus mutation.
Will more and more complications
● Monitoring shift in emphasis, an increase in high-risk groups infected with
Q: It is reported that in patients with influenza A H1N1 influenza complications in the increase, with the present collection of cases, can reflect this?
Yu Hongjie Answer: Our focus from September to monitor the adjustment has been made is no longer carried out monitoring and diagnosis for each case, nor is it in mild cases, but in severe, complications and deaths on the. Even the most developed countries, such as the United States and some European countries, regardless of their medical service capabilities and laboratory testing capabilities, do not have a mild case of each of the ability to conduct monitoring and diagnosis.
With the monitoring intensity increases throughout the hospital reported the number of cases and severe cases are also increasing, in line with the natural order of influenza A H1N1 influenza. As the number of infections and the incidence of increase in the number, as well as winter and spring, the arrival of flu season, a fairly long period of time in the future will appear severe, complications and deaths.
How much a child of the most dangerous
● 5 for children under the age of more complication
Q: WHO issued a warning, there is no all children are classified as high-risk groups. Why is that?
Keiji Fukuda A: We discuss the high-risk groups, he said that those who are most prone to the symptoms and complications of critical people. Based on the information we collect, children under 5 years of age infected with influenza A H1N1 influenza virus, the highest frequency of hospitalization, and complications up to. As the infection increasing age, we can see the patient's length of stay and complication rates are declining.
Yu Hongjie A: The peak of the epidemic was prevalent before the advent of the crowd to the spread of vaccination, such as school-age children, can delay and reduce the prevalence of the epidemic peak. The Ministry of Health to develop vaccination priority groups and is based on this strategy is enacted.
Variation of the virus will continue to do
● 2 speculated that: first, the mutation may make the virus more susceptible to human lungs; second, it may be the same as the avian flu virus, but not easily infect humans
Q: How did it happen virus mutates? At present, we have a vaccine can keep pace with the speed of variation?
Keiji Fukuda A: The virus is mutating and changing clothes every day, as people, as normal. If every mutation must report or follow-up, it seems that once the weather forecast every hour, as meaningless. If the virus mutation that causes an illness aggravated or mitigated, or large-scale changes, it then has epidemiological value.
DENG Ying A: Influenza A H1N1 influenza viruses mutate sure, but the virus mutation caused by changes in virulence of the virus is not certain, it may be enhanced, unchanged or reduced. Unchanged and will not give less cause for human health effects even worse than it is now, but once the virulence of the virus mutated to enhance their communication and people with severe illness caused by the number of people likely to increase dramatically. Therefore, the variation of influenza viruses timely monitoring, has been the WHO and national prevention and control of influenza pandemic, an important part. At present, around the world monitored the variation of influenza A H1N1 influenza viruses were sporadic phenomenon, and not widespread. WHO also said that the pathogenicity of the virus mutation without a corresponding increase, but also did not lead to the number of infections or severe cases, the increase in deaths. Mainland of China, there had been several cases of virus mutation, but there are also only an isolated incident, distributed, and there is no correlation between them.
Shuyue Long Answer: At present, not yet clearly the true biological significance of this mutation, but some of the world's scientists to speculate that in previous studies prompted this mutation may make the virus more susceptible to human lungs, another kind of speculation is likely to such as avian flu viruses, but not easily infect humans.
I understand that we can do is to monitor, it has changed, we can monitor that this is our maximum capacity of human beings; monitoring to the future we can take a variety of measures, such as the production of vaccines.
A current outbreak or not yet reach the top five complications in children under the age of the respondents are more http://health.jschina.com.cn 2009-12-17 09:28:00 Expert:
Planning Office, Director of WHO's global influenza, pandemic influenza, the Special Adviser on Keiji Fukuda
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Virus Disease Control and Prevention deputy director of the National Influenza Center director Shu Yuelong
China Disease Prevention and Control Center for Disease Control and Emergency Yu Hongjie, deputy director of the Office of
Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director DENG Ying
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist, chief expert Zeng Guang
A stream next spring whether the end of the
● disease could not reach the top
Q: Some media reports to the next spring, the peak of influenza A H1N1 influenza may be over. You think how it would develop: It is becoming a seasonal influenza, or another large outbreak?
Keiji Fukuda A: We have been to reiterate that the discussion now, the peak of influenza A H1N1 influenza when it will end too early, let alone to predict what next spring will be the case. Basically, we do not know, can not guess how the influenza A H1N1 influenza viruses change.
At present, the level of activity Influenza A H1N1 influenza on a global scale has not yet reached its peak, the virus active in the northern hemisphere, although in some countries there have been signs of weakening, but still some countries where cases are rising, the current third wave of the epidemic can not be excluded the possibility of an outbreak. If the new infections, or severe cases continued to decline in a few weeks, or until 80% of the world's population are immune to the virus only after the A stream may say that the epidemic has been in the past.
I expect that sometime in 2010, we held some formal meetings, just, objective and scientific evaluation of the Influenza A H1N1 influenza, in order to understand what we actually are in the epidemic areas to explore whether we will face the first three-wave epidemic, or whether we can declare the epidemic has passed.
Yu Hongjie Answer: some of the traditional seasonal flu known as influenza, Influenza H1N1 influenza itself is an influenza. In the future for a long time, it may be converted to seasonal influenza.
I understand that in a closed population, if a natural infection with vaccine reached 50%, you can block the virus in this closed population spread.
Lower death rate than do large influenza
● ultimate fatality rate to one year after the end of the epidemic in order statistics
Q: With regard to reports of Influenza A H1N1 influenza mortality rates continue to increase, this can be understood as the epidemic in increased?
Zeng Guang Answer: On the surface, this is a sudden outbreak is actually the accumulation results. Since the first cases in North America found that after the cases are continuously passaged, and the more passaged more. Now more than six months have passed, the incidence of base, base increased significantly. Since the basic rate increase, the patient naturally increased.
Keiji Fukuda A: Based on the available data, WHO can not calculate the death rate of influenza A H1N1 influenza. To discuss an epidemic of death rates, we need to have data from individual countries, and then the use of different calculation models to assess how many deaths and cases of outbreaks. I believe that the epidemic peak in the past, perhaps a year or two, we can finally estimate mortality. At present, according to U.S. calculations, influenza A H1N1 influenza death rate of 0.018 percent, not to the 1918 influenza pandemic mortality 1%.
A stream would have won re-do
● virus, large-scale variation may be caused by the vaccine failure
Q: If a person has been infected by an influenza A H1N1 influenza, but also re-infection? Why?
Yu Hongjie A: Influenza A H1N1 influenza virus was confirmed by the end of April this year, so far, its own antigenic and genetic characteristics have not changed. In other words, got a flow, or have been vaccinated and later, be able to generate the virus-specific immune antibodies, in theory, will no longer have to.
Keiji Fukuda A: People will be several ways of infectious diseases, immunity, one of which is the actual disease.
Under normal circumstances, after an influenza infection, the immune few years at least. But there could well be repeated on the same plant type virus infection, of course, this is a rare phenomenon.
Drug-resistant virus will not
● drug-resistant virus does not spread
Q: The United Kingdom reported cases of Tamiflu-resistant, followed by reports of another virus mutates, it will not have contact between the two? We are currently using drugs is still valid?
Shu Yuelong A: The virus mutation and drug resistance is completely different. At present, the global drug-resistant strains detected in the proportion of less than 1%, indicating that drug-resistant strains did not become a major epidemic strain. But it can not become a pandemic strain, it's hard to say. Up to now, we are of antiviral drugs is still valid.
Yu Hongjie A: First, to the end of October, the world's 39 drug-resistant viruses were isolated, and relatively numerous compared with the virus isolated from a tiny minority. Secondly, there is no evidence that drug-resistant viruses transmitted between people, or these drug-resistant viruses are epidemiological links between cases. And that these drug-resistant strains of zanamivir is still very sensitive, and just the thought of oseltamivir resistance.
Keiji Fukuda A: Currently, drug-resistant strain was found, mainly from some patients with severe immune deficiencies who isolated. I must say, as long as in the early days, the proper use of antiviral drugs can still get a very good therapeutic effect. But for those who have the potential underlying diseases, in particular, the immune dysfunction, we should pay close attention to drug efficacy. At the same time, but also pay close attention to virus mutation.
Will more and more complications
● Monitoring shift in emphasis, an increase in high-risk groups infected with
Q: It is reported that in patients with influenza A H1N1 influenza complications in the increase, with the present collection of cases, can reflect this?
Yu Hongjie Answer: Our focus from September to monitor the adjustment has been made is no longer carried out monitoring and diagnosis for each case, nor is it in mild cases, but in severe, complications and deaths on the. Even the most developed countries, such as the United States and some European countries, regardless of their medical service capabilities and laboratory testing capabilities, do not have a mild case of each of the ability to conduct monitoring and diagnosis.
With the monitoring intensity increases throughout the hospital reported the number of cases and severe cases are also increasing, in line with the natural order of influenza A H1N1 influenza. As the number of infections and the incidence of increase in the number, as well as winter and spring, the arrival of flu season, a fairly long period of time in the future will appear severe, complications and deaths.
How much a child of the most dangerous
● 5 for children under the age of more complication
Q: WHO issued a warning, there is no all children are classified as high-risk groups. Why is that?
Keiji Fukuda A: We discuss the high-risk groups, he said that those who are most prone to the symptoms and complications of critical people. Based on the information we collect, children under 5 years of age infected with influenza A H1N1 influenza virus, the highest frequency of hospitalization, and complications up to. As the infection increasing age, we can see the patient's length of stay and complication rates are declining.
Yu Hongjie A: The peak of the epidemic was prevalent before the advent of the crowd to the spread of vaccination, such as school-age children, can delay and reduce the prevalence of the epidemic peak. The Ministry of Health to develop vaccination priority groups and is based on this strategy is enacted.
Variation of the virus will continue to do
● 2 speculated that: first, the mutation may make the virus more susceptible to human lungs; second, it may be the same as the avian flu virus, but not easily infect humans
Q: How did it happen virus mutates? At present, we have a vaccine can keep pace with the speed of variation?
Keiji Fukuda A: The virus is mutating and changing clothes every day, as people, as normal. If every mutation must report or follow-up, it seems that once the weather forecast every hour, as meaningless. If the virus mutation that causes an illness aggravated or mitigated, or large-scale changes, it then has epidemiological value.
DENG Ying A: Influenza A H1N1 influenza viruses mutate sure, but the virus mutation caused by changes in virulence of the virus is not certain, it may be enhanced, unchanged or reduced. Unchanged and will not give less cause for human health effects even worse than it is now, but once the virulence of the virus mutated to enhance their communication and people with severe illness caused by the number of people likely to increase dramatically. Therefore, the variation of influenza viruses timely monitoring, has been the WHO and national prevention and control of influenza pandemic, an important part. At present, around the world monitored the variation of influenza A H1N1 influenza viruses were sporadic phenomenon, and not widespread. WHO also said that the pathogenicity of the virus mutation without a corresponding increase, but also did not lead to the number of infections or severe cases, the increase in deaths. Mainland of China, there had been several cases of virus mutation, but there are also only an isolated incident, distributed, and there is no correlation between them.
Shuyue Long Answer: At present, not yet clearly the true biological significance of this mutation, but some of the world's scientists to speculate that in previous studies prompted this mutation may make the virus more susceptible to human lungs, another kind of speculation is likely to such as avian flu viruses, but not easily infect humans.
I understand that we can do is to monitor, it has changed, we can monitor that this is our maximum capacity of human beings; monitoring to the future we can take a variety of measures, such as the production of vaccines.
