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This year's first purchase and storage will start, the pig price rebound is imminent, and institutions focus on concept stocks
2022-03-01 07:52 Source: Data Treasure Author: Liu Junling
(Original title: The industry with a huge loss of nearly 50 billion is coming, the first purchase and storage will start this year, the pig price rebound is imminent, and institutions focus on concept stocks released)
The state will immediately start the purchase and storage of the central frozen pork reserve.
According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, from February 21st to 25th, the national average price ratio of pig grains was 4.98:1, which was an excessive drop determined by the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Pork Market to Ensure Supply and Stable Prices". The first-level warning range. The National Development and Reform Commission will immediately start the central frozen pork reserve purchase and storage work together with relevant departments, and guide all localities to actively purchase and store it. According to preliminary statistics, at present, Beijing, Jiangxi, Hubei, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia and other places have started purchasing and storing, and other places will also start in the near future.
In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to work with relevant departments to do a good job in reserve adjustment, and if necessary, further increase the purchase and storage efforts to promote the smooth operation of the live pig market. It is recommended that the farms (households) make reasonable arrangements for production and operation decisions to maintain the overall stability of the production capacity of live pigs and the normal rhythm of slaughter and replenishment.
According to Huachu.com, the first batch of central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction transactions in 2022 totaled 40,000 tons, which will be carried out on March 3 and March 4, 2022 respectively.
In response to the problem that pork fluctuates too much in a short period of time, the State Council recently issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Promoting Agricultural and Rural Modernization Plan", which emphasizes improving the long-term mechanism for the stable and orderly development of the pig industry, promoting standardized large-scale breeding, and reducing pork production capacity. Stabilized at around 55 million tons to prevent production ups and downs.
The price of pork is expected to rebound slightly after the start of pork purchase and storage
Since July 2020, pork prices have entered a correction mode. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market on February 28 was 18.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from last Friday and a decrease of 52.56% from the same period last year. %, and the latest price is now approaching the low of last October.
According to historical experience, after the start of pork purchase and storage, the price of pork tends to narrow or rebound slightly. Statistics from Securities Times·Databao show that after the start of pork purchase and storage, pork prices rose by an average of 1.03% within two weeks and an average of 1.94% within four weeks. After the fourth pork purchase and storage started last year, pork prices rose by 23.42% in less than a month. In the short term, pork purchase and storage will have a certain role in promoting the rise in pig prices.
High costs drive capacity reduction
The rise in upstream feed prices may promote the de-capacity of the industry. Domestic feed prices rose significantly in February. This month's fattening compound material was 3.66 yuan/kg, up 1.11% month-on-month and 7.9% year-on-year. Zheshang Securities Research Report believes that considering that the cost of feed such as corn and soybean meal remained high in the first half of the year, the industry's production capacity may be accelerated due to deep losses, or the industry will actively eliminate sows with piglets in the second quarter, and the price of sows will be eliminated. It is expected to hit a new low, and the expectation of a new round of cycle reversal continues to strengthen.
Catalyzed by the fall in pork prices and the rapid rise in cost-side feed prices, pig enterprises have suffered increasing losses in breeding, which has driven the process of industrial capacity reduction. Data from the State Council shows that as of January 2022, the domestic stock of fertile sows was 42.9 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9%. It has been declining for seven consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. decline.
The pig industry suffered a huge loss last year, and concept stocks rebounded recently
According to statistics from Securities Times and Databao, there are 25 stocks in the A-share market that are involved in the pig industry. Affected by the falling pork prices, concept stocks suffered huge losses last year. The loss of 14 companies that have released performance forecasts/express reports has reached 48.4 billion yuan in terms of the upper limit of forecast net profit. Zhengbang Technology and Wen's shares have lost more than 10 billion yuan, up to more than 18 billion yuan and more than 13 billion yuan. Among the profitable companies, only Muyuan shares made a profit of more than 1 billion yuan, which was 8 billion yuan, but compared with the previous year, all companies experienced a sharp decline in performance.
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