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Zhuo Chuang Information: When will the egg price break through the shock adjustment period after rising and falling?
February 27, 2023 11:08
Zhuo Chuang Information Zhang Wenping
[Introduction] After the Spring Festival, due to the mutual constraints of supply, demand and cost of eggs( 4427 , 1.00 , 0.02% ) , the price of eggs will fluctuate and adjust within a narrow range; the demand will increase in the later period, and the increase in supply will be limited. At the same time, the cost will continue to support the price of eggs. Egg prices may go up.
Egg prices adjusted within a narrow range after the Spring Festival
Since January 28, the price of eggs in the main production areas has experienced two complete adjustment cycles of "rise-fall-stabilization", but the adjustment space is relatively limited, and the price of eggs has always been adjusted within a narrow range between 4.30-4.54 yuan/catties , the adjustment range is within 0.30 yuan/catties. From February 22 to 23, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/catties, which was a phased high in the third round of egg prices after the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the main reason for the egg price trend is that the supply and demand are constrained, and the cost supports the egg price.
After the Spring Festival, market demand has improved significantly compared with 2021 and 2022, but it is still lower than the same period in 2018 and 2019. According to the sales data of the sales area representative market monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information, the average sales volume of the sales area representative market in the four weeks after the Spring Festival in 2023 is 7170.20 tons, an increase of 32.63% compared with the same period in 2021, and an increase of 14.93% compared with the same period in 2022. 8.84% lower than the same period in 2018 and 1.07% lower than the same period in 2019. At the same time, from February 1 to 24, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 4.39 yuan/catties, a year-on-year increase of 16.45%, higher than the 30.28% in the same period in the past five years. Eggs have been at a relatively high level for a long time, coupled with limited market demand support, limiting the room for egg prices to rise.
Egg prices may rise later
At present, the inventory of production and circulation links in most production areas is at a normal level, and only a few areas have a slightly higher inventory pressure. In addition, the number of new laying hens in most markets is still relatively limited. It is difficult to significantly increase the supply of eggs in the short term, or continue to maintain at relatively tight state. In terms of demand, with the improvement of market demand, according to the representative market sales of the sales area monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information, the average sales volume of the sales area may increase by 14%-40%. Both supply and demand have formed positive support for the egg market. In terms of cost, both corn and soybean meal may be lowered, but the decline is limited. The feed cost of laying hens may continue to remain high, and the feed cost will still support the price of eggs. On the whole, under the support of egg supply and demand and feed costs, egg prices may break through the current narrow range adjustment trend in the later period, or rise slightly.
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