Eggs: Spot prices are rising steadily

2018-11-15 14:10:00 Source: Huatai Futures

  Spot tracking: Zhihua data shows that the national egg prices continue to rise slightly, trade monitoring shows that the receipt of goods is generally difficult, the goods are generally slow, the trade situation is not changed, traders continue to be weak bullish expectations. The price of eggs has risen sharply in recent months, and the distant month is relatively weak. Based on the closing price, the January contract rose by 94 yuan, the May contract rose by 30 yuan, and the September contract fell by 6 yuan.
  Logical analysis: Last week, the spot price fluctuated and fell, but the futures price fluctuated and diverged. In recent months, it was relatively stronger than the distant month. The basis difference in the near-month has expanded again, or the number of laying hens published by Zhihua Data has decreased. However, we believe that there are still hidden concerns. The trader's inventory score published by Zhihua Data continues to rise, or it indicates that farmers and traders have the possibility of reluctantly selling or replenishing the stock based on the price of the bullish egg, which makes the recent spot price of eggs relatively resistant. However, it will also lead to the delayed elimination of farmers. The price of recently eliminated chickens continues to rise, which is currently second only to 2014, which will lead to the late rise in spot prices.
  Strategy: Be cautious and bearish. It is recommended that investors choose a short position to short the January contract.
  Risk: environmental policy and bird flu epidemic.
(Article source: Huatai Futures)