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The Canadian Press - ONLINE EDITION
Think H7N9 cases are slowing? Too soon to declare virus under control: experts
By: Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press
Posted: 5:34 PM |Last Modified: 8:11 PM
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Some experts think we may actually be observing a slowing of cases, perhaps due to control measures...
"Anybody who does influenza surveillance has to understand that one or two weeks does not make for a trend in any way, shape or form," Osterholm says.
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While a decrease in cases would be welcome, those concerned about this outbreak realize in some ways it could be a mixed blessing. When cases decline, flu gets pushed off the radar. Rather than using the time to prepare for what might be ahead, people may decide this is another instance where warnings of a possible pandemic failed to materialize and dismiss the threat entirely.
"It does become challenging because if we have to continue to track the virus and try to understand if it might be changing over a long period of time, some people lose interest," says Nancy Cox, who heads the influenza division at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta.
"We won't lose interest, but some people lose interest."
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The World Health Organization's top flu expert thinks the world may be in for a long haul with H7N9.
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Still, Fukuda gets that people may be suffering from pandemic or flu fatigue. He also knows that the fact that the other bird flu, H5N1, still has not caused a pandemic after years of warnings about the dangerous virus may erode people's willingness to believe this H7N9 is a threat worth watching.
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"I think we have to remind ourselves over and over again that we are really watching something over a period of just a few months. I think we get a little bit impatient and say, 'Oh, there's no new information today so everything must be different.'
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Osterholm shares that view, saying people need to realize that a range of possibilities exists with this virus. It could start transmitting person to person in the near term and trigger a pandemic. But the world could also be watching it a year from now, seeing a similar pattern of cases. Or it could be like H5N1 and plague the world for a decade or more.
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Full text:
Think H7N9 cases are slowing? Too soon to declare virus under control: experts
By: Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press
Posted: 5:34 PM |Last Modified: 8:11 PM
...
Some experts think we may actually be observing a slowing of cases, perhaps due to control measures...
"Anybody who does influenza surveillance has to understand that one or two weeks does not make for a trend in any way, shape or form," Osterholm says.
...
While a decrease in cases would be welcome, those concerned about this outbreak realize in some ways it could be a mixed blessing. When cases decline, flu gets pushed off the radar. Rather than using the time to prepare for what might be ahead, people may decide this is another instance where warnings of a possible pandemic failed to materialize and dismiss the threat entirely.
"It does become challenging because if we have to continue to track the virus and try to understand if it might be changing over a long period of time, some people lose interest," says Nancy Cox, who heads the influenza division at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta.
"We won't lose interest, but some people lose interest."
...
The World Health Organization's top flu expert thinks the world may be in for a long haul with H7N9.
...
Still, Fukuda gets that people may be suffering from pandemic or flu fatigue. He also knows that the fact that the other bird flu, H5N1, still has not caused a pandemic after years of warnings about the dangerous virus may erode people's willingness to believe this H7N9 is a threat worth watching.
...
"I think we have to remind ourselves over and over again that we are really watching something over a period of just a few months. I think we get a little bit impatient and say, 'Oh, there's no new information today so everything must be different.'
...
Osterholm shares that view, saying people need to realize that a range of possibilities exists with this virus. It could start transmitting person to person in the near term and trigger a pandemic. But the world could also be watching it a year from now, seeing a similar pattern of cases. Or it could be like H5N1 and plague the world for a decade or more.
...
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