China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai

[Laidback Al]

Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai

[curiosity]

Re: China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai

Laidback Al, you do wonderful map work!

If the reservoir is related to migrating birds (as some have indicated), why are there not any cases reported in the provinces between Beijing and Jiangsu?

[curiosity]

Re: China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai

On another note: the term "hot spots" reminded me of the chronological onset and location map. IMO, the map looked similar to a few wildfire maps I've seen where the larger fire sends burning embers into the atmosphere that start smaller fires around it - often in the same general direction. Some of those surrounding fires light up, others smolder - dependent on fuel source, terrain, atmospheric conditions, etc...

China has a lot of fuel for "hot spots."

Although, depending on which 1918 origination scenario one thinks is most accurate - Haskell, Kansas; Asian source; or France source; etc... - fuel may or may not matter at the beginning.

[NS1]

Re: China - Map of H7N9 hot spots outside of Shanghai

On another note: the term "hot spots" reminded me of the chronological onset and location map. IMO, the map looked similar to a few wildfire maps I've seen where the larger fire sends burning embers into the atmosphere that start smaller fires around it - often in the same general direction. Some of those surrounding fires light up, others smolder - dependent on fuel source, terrain, atmospheric conditions, etc...

China has a lot of fuel for "hot spots."

Although, depending on which 1918 origination scenario one thinks is most accurate - Haskell, Kansas; Asian source; or France source; etc... - fuel may or may not matter at the beginning.

Remarks on

Host-Transition
Adaptation
in
Transport Vector Species

Ignition v. Spread

Adaptation method and rate within the transport vector are the primary effectors at the beginning of a true influenza zoonotic. Reservoir dynamics are paramount to this process of avian-to-mammal bridging. The number and geographic dispersal of vector organisms (Passerines, Anser, Anas, et al) that are able to transport the host-switching virus describes the commonly found geographic outliers during similar times of ignition.

We all know that spread occurs in an arc, but spread is Stage 2, a separate process that begins only after a virus is established in a new host. Stage 1, Ignition, when traced carefully, may be found often as multi-focal and spontaneous.

Non-intuitive ignition may be seen in the recent GeneWurx prediction and validation of non-contiguous human H7N9 spontaneous emergence in land-locked Hunan province: Passerines Fly Higher than Poultry [FT#495364].

Based on a novel mechanism of genetic tracing that cross-references human clinical outcomes, calculations (guided by the recognition of a sub-segment antigen adaptation method) supported Ignition of emergent human cases in Guizhou and Hunan. We understood from the start that cases in Guizhou would not be reported. Non-contiguous emergent H7N9 (no geographic arc) for a human Hunan case was reported on the 27th of April with a case onset of 2013-04-14.

Human re-hosting will always occur when viral particles with the right receptor binding genetics are in proximity. That much is non-bypassable. If the new viral strain is successfully competitive over standing infective influenzas, then Ignition becomes pandemic.

But it all starts at the animal-man interface, at the contact vector that is also frequently the viral transportation. Outside of exceptional situations where innate immunity is improbably high or low in a vector-proximal, ignitable population, mankind as an effector (the fuel) is not so important.


Related Reading

• GeneWurx Cross Serotype Homology Analysis, Open-Access, Full-Text version
• Human Emergent H7N9 from Zhejiang Province
• Environment Emergent H7N9 from Zhejiang
• Fatal H5N1 Homology to Emergent H7N9 from Shanghai in March
• Mammalian Adaptation of Emergent H7N9 Neuraminidase in Jiangsu
• TamiFlu Resistance via NA 292K in Taiwan and Shanghai
• Zhejiang Fatal H7N9 with Divergent NA, PB2 701N and Aberrant PA
• Novel PB2, Divergent PB1 & Novel PA from First Fujian Case
• China - H7N9 Human Isolates on Deposit at GISAID, Comprehensive Genetics Discussion