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H1N1 flu numbers down, but still a threat
Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 | 6:11 pm
Canwest News Service
OTTAWA ? Canada is now well into its usual flu season and, while the H1N1 virus is still circulating and causing some deaths, it appears to have been kept at bay so far this year.
Surveillance reports from the Public Health Agency of Canada show that in the first two weeks of January, the indicators used to determine influenza levels were either normal or even below what is expected for this time of year.
The number of people going to see their doctor for flu-like symptoms, for example, has been "significantly below" the average for early January, the report noted.
Since Jan. 3, there have been 47 hospitalizations due to H1N1 and eight admissions to the intensive care unit. As of Thursday, 425 deaths have been reported in Canada since the pandemic started.
Health officials were saying before Christmas that there was no way to know what the new year would bring and they were anticipating several potential scenarios. They included a third wave of H1N1, the possibility of it dying down as more people were immunized, and the seasonal flu strain taking hold.
The H1N1 virus is still the dominant virus, but so, far a third wave has been avoided and the virus hasn't shifted in its composition.
"The indications are that it's not doing too much," Earl Brown, executive director of the emerging pathogens research centre at the University of Ottawa, said in an interview. "The numbers are generally down."
About 45 to 50 per cent of the population received the H1N1 vaccine and thousands of Canadians have been infected with the virus, which has helped stem its spread, Brown said.
"The immunity in the population is probably quite solid so it's going to be hard for this virus to move around in the population," he said.
Brown cautioned, as many other experts do, that influenza viruses are unpredictable and it's unclear how the rest of the flu season will play out.
Dr. Anand Kumar, an intensive care specialist in Winnipeg who has been at the forefront of H1N1 research, said while H1N1 flu levels are relatively low right now, he expects to see flu activity rise as the season goes on.
"We're certainly going to see some significant influenza during the regular influenza season," he said. A typical flu season lasts from November to April and Kumar said levels of activity tend to ramp up towards the end of this month and in February. Whether it will be the H1N1 virus that continues to dominate or not is still uncertain, he said.
In other parts of the world, H1N1 is still widespread and there are pockets where activity has been intense in recent weeks. North Africa, South Asia and areas of Eastern Europe ? Poland, Austria, Estonia, Romania and Hungary are among the affected countries ? are the regions where transmission has been highest, according to a World Health Organization update issued Friday.
The World Health Organization will defend its reaction to the pandemic next week at a Council of Europe hearing. A WHO official said Friday that Keiji Fukuda, special adviser on pandemic influenza, will lead the delegation. The Council, made up of 47 countries with an aim of promoting democracy and human rights, is coordinating a meeting with medical experts, vaccine manufacturers, and WHO representatives to discuss how the H1N1 pandemic was handled. One of its members has accused authorities of declaring a "false pandemic," claiming they were under pressure from pharmaceutical companies anxious to profit from vaccine and drug sales. WHO representatives have denied the accusation.
With a file from AFP
Saturday, January 23rd, 2010 | 6:11 pm
Canwest News Service
OTTAWA ? Canada is now well into its usual flu season and, while the H1N1 virus is still circulating and causing some deaths, it appears to have been kept at bay so far this year.
Surveillance reports from the Public Health Agency of Canada show that in the first two weeks of January, the indicators used to determine influenza levels were either normal or even below what is expected for this time of year.
The number of people going to see their doctor for flu-like symptoms, for example, has been "significantly below" the average for early January, the report noted.
Since Jan. 3, there have been 47 hospitalizations due to H1N1 and eight admissions to the intensive care unit. As of Thursday, 425 deaths have been reported in Canada since the pandemic started.
Health officials were saying before Christmas that there was no way to know what the new year would bring and they were anticipating several potential scenarios. They included a third wave of H1N1, the possibility of it dying down as more people were immunized, and the seasonal flu strain taking hold.
The H1N1 virus is still the dominant virus, but so, far a third wave has been avoided and the virus hasn't shifted in its composition.
"The indications are that it's not doing too much," Earl Brown, executive director of the emerging pathogens research centre at the University of Ottawa, said in an interview. "The numbers are generally down."
About 45 to 50 per cent of the population received the H1N1 vaccine and thousands of Canadians have been infected with the virus, which has helped stem its spread, Brown said.
"The immunity in the population is probably quite solid so it's going to be hard for this virus to move around in the population," he said.
Brown cautioned, as many other experts do, that influenza viruses are unpredictable and it's unclear how the rest of the flu season will play out.
Dr. Anand Kumar, an intensive care specialist in Winnipeg who has been at the forefront of H1N1 research, said while H1N1 flu levels are relatively low right now, he expects to see flu activity rise as the season goes on.
"We're certainly going to see some significant influenza during the regular influenza season," he said. A typical flu season lasts from November to April and Kumar said levels of activity tend to ramp up towards the end of this month and in February. Whether it will be the H1N1 virus that continues to dominate or not is still uncertain, he said.
In other parts of the world, H1N1 is still widespread and there are pockets where activity has been intense in recent weeks. North Africa, South Asia and areas of Eastern Europe ? Poland, Austria, Estonia, Romania and Hungary are among the affected countries ? are the regions where transmission has been highest, according to a World Health Organization update issued Friday.
The World Health Organization will defend its reaction to the pandemic next week at a Council of Europe hearing. A WHO official said Friday that Keiji Fukuda, special adviser on pandemic influenza, will lead the delegation. The Council, made up of 47 countries with an aim of promoting democracy and human rights, is coordinating a meeting with medical experts, vaccine manufacturers, and WHO representatives to discuss how the H1N1 pandemic was handled. One of its members has accused authorities of declaring a "false pandemic," claiming they were under pressure from pharmaceutical companies anxious to profit from vaccine and drug sales. WHO representatives have denied the accusation.
With a file from AFP
