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DB · February 16, 2006, 02:56 PM

Re: Malaca?ang calls on LGUs, NGOs....

"He said the government remains on guard for the deadly virus so the Philippines will remain the only country in Asia that is bird flu-free."

And I am the Pope!

**Dove** · March 7, 2006, 03:29 PM

Philipines: Bf should not be treated lightly

Bird flu should not be treated lightly

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.asp?StoryId=3201

March 7, 2006
ABS-CBN/Manilla Times
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CONTINUUM By EDGARDO B. ESPIRITU

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It is not my intention to further scare our countrymen, who already have a hefty share of troubles and threats at this time. But the more clearly and the sooner we all realize that a bird flu pandemic is a very real threat, the more effective we would be in helping to prevent it and to be prepared for it.
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The greatest global catastrophe of this decade—and perhaps of this century if the worst-case scenarios being envisaged do occur—might come from a very unlikely source: a disease that first afflicted birds. Not that the new millennium had not been greeted by what seems to be an unusually large share of natural and man-made calamities. The world witnessed in such a short span of time, and almost in succession, several great tragedies—the horrifying terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, the tsunami in South and Southeast Asia, the killer earthquakes in Pakistan, and more recently, the southern Leyte mudslide in our own country. These unfortunate events claimed thousands of lives.

But all of these would pale in comparison with the devastation on human lives that an avian influenza pandemic is likely to cause, if estimates and projections of recent research come true. And these are not just alarmist predictions but are rather supposed to be the result of scientific studies done by experts. For instance, according to a report prepared by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute that came out last February (as reported by CNN), entitled "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza, the human [not avian] fatalities from an avian flu pandemic could range from 1.4 million [mild case] to 142 million [‘ultra’ worst case]. The latter figure is eerily close to the estimate of 150 million given by the World Health Organization’s senior official, Mr. David Nabarro, when he was named head of the UN avian flu response team last year.

Moreover, the economic costs estimated by the said study are huge—US$ 4.4 trillion under the ultra worst-case scenario. This is equivalent to the GDP of Japan, the world’s second largest economy. Furthermore, it warns that the economic shocks that the pandemic will trigger are likely to extend to international trade and the global financial system. Capital flows are likely to be abruptly and substantially diverted to the safer and least-affected countries. The so-called Asian flu that hit the financial systems of the countries in the region in 1997-98 could, therefore, be repeated, but this time on a wider, perhaps global scale.

We in the Philippines, who have so far been spared from the full impact of recent international epidemics, including the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), may be tempted to ignore or even laugh off these dire predictions. But before we do, it may be useful to review the current situation. The avian flu virus (H5N 1) has already spread from mainland Asia to the Middle East; to Europe, where the latest cases of avian infection were spotted in France, Germany and Austria; to Nigeria in Africa. The WHO has so far reported 174 human infection cases in over 7 countries (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Iraq, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam), with 94 fatal cases. The most recent death was reported closer to home—from Indonesia.

We have been able to effectively control the entry of SARS into our country partly because we are physically separated by seas from the Asian mainland where it began, the normal entry points for travelers into our country being well identified airports and seaports. But for how long can we be lucky in warding off potential infection from migratory birds that come to our shores at so many points in the archipelago?

We should also note that pandemics have happened in the past. There was, for instance, the so-called Spanish flu (which, however, was also of Asian origin) that devastated the world in 1918-19, claiming 50 million lives. If it could happen then, when global interaction was far more limited compared to today, it could well happen now.

Further, those who are working on the possible cures or vaccine for the disease are having a very difficult time because the virus has been mutating. A large group of scientists around the globe is reported to have the common observation that the bird-flu virus is more diverse than initially thought, with now at least four distinct types. The virus is also able to survive in birds showing no signs of illness.

It is not my intention to further scare our countrymen, who already have a hefty share of troubles and threats at this time. But the more clearly and the sooner we all realize that a bird flu pandemic is a very real threat, the more effective we would be in helping to prevent it and to be prepared for it. We have been proudly proclaiming that our country is avian flu-free, as we have proudly proclaimed that we were SARS-free during its height in the rest of the region. I am not belittling the achievement of our authorities in so far preventing the virus from coming to our shores, and indeed they must be commended for it. But we must also realize that a lot of hard work, vigilance, discipline and proper guidance will be required to sustain such a benign situation.

We all have a part in these efforts. It is therefore important that everyone, from our national and local leaders down to the common folk in the remotest barangays, be given adequate and useful information not only to protect himself and his loved ones from this deadly disease but also to be able to contribute to its prevention.

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Philipines: Bf should not be treated lightly

Philipines: Bf should not be treated lightly

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