Check out the FAQ,Terms of Service & Disclaimers by clicking the
link. Please register
to be able to post. By viewing this site you are agreeing to our Terms of Service and Acknowledge our Disclaimers.
FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster.
The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website.
By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
ministry of commerce calculated the wholesale prices from 36 cities
on 11. July as 18.57 Yuan (1.8 Euro) per kg, 30% more than the 14.25 Yuan on 11. May.
Average retail price for pork is above 22 Yuan (2.1 Euro) per kg now.
End of June there were 476 Million pigs , 0.15% less than last year June.
pork-prices shall rise also in 2nd half of 2007, because
consumer sparcity can't be resolved in short period,
said Huang Hai, Assistent of the trade-secretary
26 million fewer hogs in China in 2006 than in 2005 ?
China will see imports rise
China will become a significant net importer of pork over the next 10 years, according to the latest agricultural outlook report present to the US Congress by the multi-university Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (Fapri) in the USA. Fapri is an economic research group with centres at Iowa State University and the University of Missouri-Columbia. More information is available at websites (http://www.fapri.iastate.edu) and (http://www.fapri.missouri.edu). Its projections show China’s annual pigmeat imports growing from 36 000 tons in 2006 to 584 000 tons in 2026, while exports stay at around half a million metric tons annually. By 2016 the effect could be a net deficit of 117 000 tons per year. The balance would be affected principally by internal economic growth and the accession of China to membership of the WTO world trade accord, with its reduction of tariffs on imports to the country’s coastal centres of population. The report casts doubt anyway on the international competitiveness of Chinese producers. Although production costs are low for the backyarders, it comments, for commercial-scale units they are about on a level with those of equivalent units in other countries.Future growth in pigmeat production within China could be constrained by limited feed resources, the report continues. A national output of 53 million tons of pork in 2006 is projected to increase by 1.9% per year to almost 63.57 million tons in 2016, but consumption is expected to outstrip this by rising at a rate of 2.1% per year. Some gains will come from improved productivity, however. Fapri analysts project the national on-farm inventory in China rising from 503 million pigs to 548 million over the same 10-year period.Canada in line for a recoveryA strong Canadian dollar in terms of international currency exchange rates has hindered pork exports from Canada in recent times, but the Fapri institute analysis indicates that the decline in national pig inventory seen since 2003 will turn around and become an expansion after 2011. Current decreases in production of about 1.5% will be transformed into a growth rate of 2.9% for the remainder of the decade. This is forecast to be accompanied by a resumption of increases in Canadian pigmeat exports that will file
by 4.8% to make the country a net exporter by some 1.24 million tons annually, compared with under a million tons in 2006. Overall it would mean on-farm pig numbers growing from 14.7 million in 2006 to 16.2 million in 2016 accompanied by a rise from 1.89 million tons/year to 2.23 million tons/year for Canada’s pork output.Switch in
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
THE YEAR OF THE PIG? Smithfield poised to sell China pork
Smithfield stock has surged in the past weeks as Chinese demand drove up hog prices.
BY CHRIS FLORES
July 23, 2007, 6:54 AM EDT
SMITHFIELD -- It is the Year of the Pig in China, and Smithfield Foods' Maverick Food brand in that country is celebrating by giving away fancy scissors, a chocolate pig or a "Myriad Blessing Gift Box."
Investors over the past weeks have started betting the world's largest pork company might get a blessing of its own from China. The growing country consumes more than half the pork in the world, and is currently facing a severe shortage because of a hog disease. As a result, China wants to bring in large amounts of pork, presenting a major opportunity for hog producers worldwide.
However, those prospects clouded recently when a fight with the United States over food regulations escalated to China temporarily banning meat imports from some major American producers.
But Smithfield was not one of them.
And Smithfield is currently talking to Chinese importers who are trying to obtain supplies for the country during this shortage. Whether this leads to more exports to China -- which has traditionally met its own needs internally -- over the long term is still unknown.
For now at least, the prospect of a major short-term surge in pork exports to China has driven up future hog prices over the past couple of weeks.
Smithfield's stock, in the meantime, hovered at new highs two weeks ago amid the China talk. The company's share price closed at $34.62 on Friday.
Regardless of whether Smithfield wins more business in China, the company benefits when hog prices rise...
All the Smithfield products in China bear the Maverick and Haslett brand names, and are sold to the general public as well as restaurants...
Until now, China has largely produced its own hogs. Less than 5 percent of Smithfield's hog exports went to China last year. The bigger unknown is whether a short-term boost of importing in China will lead to long-term gains for Smithfield, or if China will go back to past patterns once it stops the spread of blue ear disease in its hogs.
"They would like to be self-sustaining," Hostetter said. "As quickly as they can restore the herd, they'd like to do that."
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>China steps up measures to boost pig supply </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=5 cellPadding=0 width="95%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle>www.chinanews.cn2007-07-24 09:51:34 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="97%" align=center bgColor=#b6b4b4 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=middle bgColor=#ffffff><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right>(Source: Xinhua) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="FONT-SIZE: 12px; LINE-HEIGHT: 155%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 align=center border=0 span><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE height=10 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=14v>July 24 - China's Ministry of Agriculture dispatched another 20 inspection teams to the country's 60 pig production bases on Monday in a bid to curb the spreading of blue-ear disease and ensure the pig supply to stabilize the pork prices.
Pork prices have continued to rise despite the government's efforts to encourage pig breeding with subsidies, after the pork supply was strained by the recent culling of pigs due to the outbreak of the disease.
The wholesale price of pork in China surged 74.6 percent in June compared with the same month last year.
Meanwhile, 39,455 pigs or 27.5 percent of the pigs that contracted blue ear disease in 586 epidemic areas, had died by July 10.
Many farmers have become reluctant to raise pigs for fear they might be struck by the outbreak.
The government had already been directly subsidizing pig breeders and providing insurance for female pigs against illness and natural disasters.
Agriculture Minister Sun Zhengcai said the inspection teams, which now total 30, would identify the actual number of live pigs, especially females, and learn about difficulties in breeding from farmers.
Sun said the information collected by the inspection teams would be used in drafting further supportive policies.
They would explain the government's preferential policies to pig breeders to boost their confidence, he said.
The inspection teams would also focus on the monitoring and the prevention of the blue-ear disease and foot-and-mouth disease, said Sun. Blue-ear pig disease remains a severe challenge to China's Yangtze River valley despite the fact that the outbreak had been basically brought under control on the whole.
Rising costs for feed and a periodic shortage of pigs due to a fall in pork prices in the first half of 2006 that prompted breeders to slaughter their sows and piglets to avoid further losses have also been blamed for price hikes.
Experts said prices would continue to rise in the second half as the supply shortfall would take a while to ease.
"Normally it takes half a year to complete a breeding cycle and make more pork available in the markets. That's why it's so difficult to turn around supply and demand," said Huang Hai, Assistant Minister of Commerce.
Sun said the production of live pigs was the top priority of the agriculture ministry. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> http://www.chinanews.cn//news/2007-07-24/37861.html
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
Ministry says China trying to combat rampant pig disease <TABLE class=relmenue cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#f6f6f6 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD>Print article </TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD>Refer to a friend </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>? AP
2007-07-25 12:38:34 -
BEIJING (AP) - Nearly 90,000 pigs have died or been slaughtered because of blue ear disease, a Ministry of Agriculture official said Wednesday, part of the cause of a spike in pork prices. The epidemic has now spread to 25 provinces or regions, said Li Jinxiang, a veterinarian with the ministry. China has 23 provinces, five autonomous regions and four self-governed municipalities.
Li told a news conference that by the start of this week, 165,144 pigs had contracted the disease. So 45,546 had died and another 42,728 had been slaughtered. Li said the ministry had developed a vaccine for the epidemic and would start delivering it next month. Last week, the ministry said [COLOR=#0000cc! important][COLOR=#0000cc! important]wholesale [COLOR=#0000cc! important]prices[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR] for pork had jumped nearly 75 percent in the last year. Prices are expected to remain high, fueling fears of higher inflation, which rose to 3.4 percent in May, the highest in two years.
China's leaders have expressed concern about the prices. In May, Premier Wen Jiabao ordered local governments to increase food assistance for low-income families and to offer farmers subsidies to encourage pig-rearing.
Many farmers have stopped raising pigs for fear they might be stricken by the disease, authorities say.
<!--APIMG-->
The disease, also called porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, was first identified in the United States in 1987, according to the Web site of the World Organization for [COLOR=#0000cc! important][COLOR=#0000cc! important]Animal [COLOR=#0000cc! important]Health[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]. The disease does not affect people but can be fatal to pigs.http://www.pr-inside.com/ministry-sa...at-r183872.htm<!-- COM9_20070725103541882.txt -->
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=Title>2007-7-26 </TD></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px; COLOR: #bb171c; PADDING-TOP: 5px"></TD></TR><TR><TD class=Content id=Content style="FONT-SIZE: 16px; LINE-HEIGHT: 25px"> AnneZ A 49-YEAR-OLD man from Shenzhen City in south China's Guangdong Province has been diagnosed with Streptococcus suis, a pig-borne bacterial disease that can be fatal, the local government said yesterday.
The patient is receiving treatment and is in stable condition, the information office of the municipal government said. The government did not reveal how the man contracted the disease but his family members and colleagues have shown no symptoms of the disease and no epidemic has been found among pigs in Shenzhen.
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=content01>MOA Says Blue-ear Pig Disease Infections Down in July</TD></TR><TR><TD height=45><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width="100%" bgColor=#cccccc><TBODY><TR><TD class=content02 bgColor=#e8e8e8> 2007-07-25 23:45:28 Xinhua</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=content03 id=dstTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD>Blue-ear pig disease affected 22,634 pigs in 32 counties in 11 Chinese provinces between July 1 and 22, killing 6,433 and requiring the culling of 15,728, an official with the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) said on Wednesday. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
The official told a news briefing that the number of cases had declined from the previous month but did not provide any figures to support his claim. <o:p></o:p>
The MOA said that from the beginning of January 1 to July 22, 165,144 pigs in 25 provinces were infected with the disease, of which 45,546 died and 42,728 were culled. <o:p></o:p>
Li Jinxiang, an inspector with the Veterinary Bureau under the MOA, said, compared with last month, the number of disease-hit counties, dead pigs and culled pigs were all declining thanks to increased supplies of vaccines and financial aid from the MOA. <o:p></o:p>
According to Li, about 150 million milliliters of the vaccine have been used to curb the spread of the pig disease by July 25. Another 250 million milliliters would be produced in August. The MOA has already allocated 10.8 million yuan (1.43 million U.S. dollars)to finance affected areas. <o:p></o:p>
On the current tight market supply of pigs and the price hike of pork, Li said the supply was expected to increase early next year and the pork price would remain at a relatively high level in the near future.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD height=10>http://www.jongonews.com/?channel=re...tLink&id=21192</TD></TR><TR><TD><!--RelAV --></TD></TR><TR><TD height=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Blue-ear pig disease affected 22 634 pigs in 32 counties in 11
Chinese provinces between 1 and 22 Jul 2007, killing 6433 and
requiring the culling of 15 728, an official with the Chinese
Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) said on Wednesday [25 Jul 2007].
The official told a news briefing that the number of cases had
declined from the previous month but did not provide any figures to
support his claim.
The MOA said that from 1 Jan to 22 Jul 2007, 165 144 pigs in 25
provinces were infected with the disease, of which 45 546 died and 42
728 were culled.
Li Jinxiang, an inspector with the Veterinary Bureau under the MOA,
said, compared with last month [June 2006], the numbers of
disease-hit counties, dead pigs and culled pigs were all declining
thanks to increased supplies of vaccines and financial aid from the MOA.
According to Li, about 150 million milliliters of the vaccine have
been used to curb the spread of the pig disease by 25 Jul 2007.
Another 250 million milliliters would be produced in August 2007. The
MOA has already allocated 10.8 million yuan [USD 1.43 million] to
finance affected areas.
On the current tight market supply of pigs and the price hike of
pork, Li said the supply was expected to increase early next year
[2008] and the pork price would remain at a relatively high level in
the near future
The number of affected provinces (25) means that almost the entire
territory of China has been affected by highly pathogenic PRRS ("blue
ear disease"); China administers 22 provinces out of a total of 33
province level divisions. This underlines the potential of the
disease as a transboundary, highly infectious disease with potential
international impact.
China is known to be the world's leading pork producer, maintaining
about half of the world's pig population, which exceeds one billion
pigs. The mortality of 45 546 pigs out of a population of at least
500 million (and there are higher estimates) seems rather negligible
(less than 0.1 percent). If it is indeed a disease which causes the
reported decline in pig numbers to the extent of souring pork prices,
its morbidity and mortality figures are in need of verification.
However, ING noted that the most pressing challenge for China is to contain soaring pork prices, which subject international grain prices to one-way upside risk.
'We expect food price inflation to remain high until the high base kicks in in the fourth quarter to make the year-on-year comparisons look better,' the note added.
It said recent soaring pork prices in China are the result of blue ear disease, which has so far killed 25 pct of the country's pig population.
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
Deep first pig streptococcus infection disease can be improved eating small News.dayoo.com July 27, 2007 08:00 Source : Guangzhou Daily
<!--enpcontent-->
At noon yesterday, the Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention held a news conference and Shenzhen this year, the first notification of Streptococcus suis infection latest illness, it was introduced, the patient is still in the Donghu Hospital for treatment the general situation has improved, a small number can eat, which is further treatment.
Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologists director Han - Wu Ma, the patient is a factory in Baoan kitchen workers, because of professional reasons contacts.
Streptococcus conditional pathogens, animal diseases, the nature and distribution of extensive swine, Pig is generally believed that the disease has reached 30% ~ 75%, even with streptococcus swine type 2 is relatively common, but not necessarily the incidence. And the hot and humid climate change, the Barns poor sanitary conditions could induce stress factor pig streptococcus disease.At present, China's pig streptococcus II as animal diseases.
Han - Wu Ma said that since 2005, the Shenzhen Municipality has as a general norm for the management of infectious diseases, monitoring. Streptococcus suis disease to human, this is a rare disease, and the existence of more cases of skin contact with damaged or diseased meat App, no human-to-human transmission. it is not a statutory communicable diseases.
Shenzhen City, the cases of Streptococcus suis disease cases, epidemiological investigations, and medical observation. their close contact with patients did not have the same symptoms and diseases is a major incident. Han - Wu Ma said that the Shenzhen municipal health departments and the agricultural sector has been established zoonotic diseases control cooperation mechanisms, For the patients of the Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention has been communicated to the agriculture sector.
（记者鲍文娟 通讯员蒋丽娟）
(Xinhua Correspondent Jiang Li Wen-Juan Bao)
<!--/enpcontent-->
Re: Mystery disease kills pigs in Southern China: press
That seems more in keeping with this article... A few excerpts...
Here, we describe for the first time an unprecedented outbreak of highly pathogenic PRRS in China in 2006, which spread to more than 10 provinces (autonomous cities or regions) and infected over 2,000,000 pigs, resulting in about 400,000 fatal cases.
All work on autopsy samples as well as the following immunohistochemistry experiments were conducted by the China Animal Disease Control Center (CADC) in a bio-safety level 3 (BSL-3) facility.
Emergence of Fatal PRRSV Variants: Unparalleled Outbreaks of Atypical PRRS in China and Molecular Dissection of the Unique Hallmark
Kegong Tian,1* Xiuling Yu,1 Tiezhu Zhao,1 Youjun Feng,2,3 Zhen Cao,1 Chuanbin Wang,1 Yan Hu, 1 Xizhao Chen,1 Dongmei Hu,1 Xinsheng Tian,2,3 Di Liu,2 Shuo Zhang,1 Xiaoyu Deng,1 Yinqiao Ding,1 Lu Yang,1 Yunxia Zhang, 1,4 Haixia Xiao,2,3 Mingming Qiao,1,4 Bin Wang,1,4 Lili Hou,1,4 Xiaoying Wang,1 Xinyan Yang,1 Liping Kang,1 Ming Sun,1 Ping Jin,1 Shujuan Wang,2,4 Yoshihiro Kitamura,2,5 Jinghua Yan,2 and George F. Gao2,5 *
1China Animal Disease Control Center, Beijing, China
2Center for Molecular Immunology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
3Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
4College of Veterinary Medicine, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
5China-Japan Joint Laboratory of Molecular Immunology and Molecular Microbiology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
However, ING noted that the most pressing challenge for China is to contain soaring pork prices, which subject international grain prices to one-way upside risk.
'We expect food price inflation to remain high until the high base kicks in in the fourth quarter to make the year-on-year comparisons look better,' the note added.
It said recent soaring pork prices in China are the result of blue ear disease, which has so far killed 25 pct of the country's pig population.
"ING" said this ? Who exactly ? What is it based upon ?
I haven't seen it elsewhere. That would be an awful lot of pigs
Rising pork prices in China signal pricier times worldwide
"In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or womanhttps://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine
Liu Minghong, a farmer in Sichuan Province, said he lost 70 pigs to a virulent disease, leaving him with
By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: August 16, 2007
CHENGDU, China, Aug. 9 ? A highly infectious swine virus is sweeping China's pig population, driving up pork prices and creating fears of a global pandemic among domesticated pigs.
In Gu Yi, a village in Sichuan Province, a veterinarian's banner claims he can cure blue-ear disease, but the virus still spreads.
Animal virus experts say Chinese authorities are playing down the gravity and spread of the disease.
So far, the mysterious virus ? believed to cause an unusually deadly form of an infection known as blue-ear pig disease ? has spread to 25 of this country's 33 provinces and regions, prompting a pork shortage and the strongest inflation in China in a decade.
More than that, China's past lack of transparency ? particularly over what became the SARS epidemic ? has created global concern.
"They haven't really explained what this virus is," says Federico A. Zuckermann, a professor of immunology at the University of Illinois College of Veterinary Medicine. "This is like SARS. They haven't sent samples to any international body. This is really irresponsible of China. This thing could get out and affect everyone."
There are no clear indications that blue-ear disease ? if that is what this disease is ? poses a threat to human health.
Though the Chinese government acknowledges that the current virus has devastated pig stocks in coastal and southern areas, it has not admitted what experts say is clear: the virus is rapidly moving inland and westward, to areas such as this one in Sichuan Province, China's largest pork-producing region.
"This disease is like a wind that swept in and passed from village to village," said Ding Shurong, a 45-year-old farmer in a village near here who lost two-thirds of his pigs . "I've never seen anything like it. No family was left untouched."
No one knows for sure how many of this country's 500 million pigs have been infected. The government says officially that about 165,000 pigs have contracted the virus this year. But in a country that, on average, loses 25 million pigs a year to disease, few believe the figures. In part, the skepticism comes from the fact that pork prices have skyrocketed 85 percent in the last year ? an increase that, absent other factors, suggests the losses from disease are more widespread than Beijing admits.
And there are other signs. Field experts are reporting widespread disease outbreaks. Fear among pig farmers that their livestock will contract the disease has led to panic selling. And the government and media here have issued alarming reports that farmers are selling diseased or infected pigs to illegal slaughterhouses, which could pose food safety problems.
International health experts are already calling this one of the worst disease outbreaks ever to hit Asia's livestock industry, and they fear the fast-mutating pathogens could spread to neighboring countries, igniting a worldwide epidemic that could affect pork supplies everywhere.
A similar virus has already been detected in neighboring Vietnam and Myanmar, and health experts are trying to determine if it came from China.
Health experts say China has declined to send tissue samples to testing labs outside the country for independent verification by a lab affiliated with the World Organization for Animal Health in Paris.
The Chinese government says that it has reported the disease to international health bodies and insists that the disease is under control and that a vaccine has been developed and distributed.
But, some scientists say there is no truly effective vaccine against blue-ear pig disease (which is also known as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome); other experts say they are not even certain that the blue-ear virus is the one that is spreading.
Scientists who track blue-ear pig disease are puzzled because the disease is generally not so deadly.
"This virus generally makes them ill but on its own it doesn't cause a lot of deaths," said Steven McOrist, a professor of pig medicines at the University of Nottingham in England. "The evidence they put up so far is not conclusive."
If it is blue-ear pig disease, which has infected most parts of the world, including the United States, it may be a new and more virulent strain.
"This is more severe than we've seen elsewhere," said Derek Armstrong, a senior veterinary scientist at the Meat and Livestock Commission in Britain. "It may be a co-infection of pigs with other things."
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization is now pressing China to share its research and tissue samples.
"I've asked my two vets in Beijing to work with the government and get some of those samples out," said Juan Lubroth, head of infectious disease at the F.A.O., noting that China has reported its own findings on the disease. "Our experience has shown us that working with carrots is better than working with sticks."
Blue-ear pig disease has devastated the Chinese swine stock, leaving farmers like Xiong Yuqun, above, with a bleak outlook.
Government scientists themselves said that last year the virus affected two millions pigs and killed 400,000. Here in Sichuan province, home to some 55 million pigs and one of the world's most densely populated pig breeding areas, there is devastation. Many pig farmers say that what appears to be the blue-ear virus swept through this region in June and July, killing thousands of pigs.
"First they refused to eat, then they got high fever," said Zhao Yanjun, 32, who lost all but 5 of his 150 pigs, just months after building a modern barn in Heishi village, about an hour's drive southwest of Chengdu. "Now, there's nothing left."
Liu Minghong, a 38-year-old farmer, said, "Most of my pigs got hit in June and July ? 70 of them died." sitting in a dusty house on the edge of his property, He pulled out a notepad that cataloged the demise of his pigs.
"I sold a lot out of panic," he says.
Pig farmers who did not sell watched their pigs succumb to a disease that ate away at their insides in a matter of weeks, often turning the pig's ear blue. In Mr. Liu's barn, he pointed to one pig that was little more than a skeleton, shivering in a corner, struggling for life.
Now, slaughterhouses here go wanting.
"Last year we slaughtered 1,000 pigs a day; now we're doing 100," said Yuan Zi, a manager at the Qiyuan Meal slaughterhouse near the city of Qionglai. "We've laid off nearly half the staff."
Officials in Beijing worry that widespread pork shortages and soaring food prices could prompt panic, unrest or inflation, undermining a sizzling economy.
Trying to contain the damage, the government has announced a series of emergency measures, offering aid, incentives and free vaccines to farmers.
But the government has also warned against price gouging, and vowed to crack down on farmers selling diseased pigs, or injecting a pig with water to bolster its selling weight.
Still, many here say the problem is that pigs are simply in short supply, and it may take months if not a year or two to restock supplies, assuming the disease does not linger, as some scientists say it generally does.
Many experts, meanwhile, worry that China, which the F.A.O. says is the fourth-largest exporter of live and slaughtered hogs, could already be exporting the disease.
"This is already considered to be a threat to the global industry," said Trevor Drew, head of virology at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency in Weybridge, in southeast England. "It would be na?ve to think we could contain this virus."
Tweet
Pork prices reached the highest point is the history of the National Mid-Autumn Festival officials also rising 
Comment