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BF in Africa Certain Ruin: UNAIDS

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  • BF in Africa Certain Ruin: UNAIDS

    Where's Bono or Sir Bob when Africa needs them? I wonder if they know what's coming?

  • #2
    BF in Africa, Certain Ruin

    ukcz -

    If the pandemic doesn't come out of China or Indonesia as Osterholm thinks it will; if it doesn't come out of Europe after H5N1 from Africa flies in and recombines with H1N1 in European pigs as Niman predicts, then it seems likely it will come out of Africa.

    I can imagine an African with a suppressed immune system (as a result of being AIDS infected) who then gets coinfected with H5N1 and another subtype of influenza ... mixing pot here we come ... and that person could be a pandemic super spreader for quite a while...

    I wonder if Niman has sequences from Africa that show some necessary humanizing polymorphism is already available there to recombine with H5N1 to create a pandemic strain?

    This virus already has so many strains (clades) and is already available in so many different places... It's bound to hit on picking up some critical human polymorphism sooner rather than later.

    I wish it would hold off for a while so we could get more ready. Unfortunately, I do not believe time is on our side. The virus is more than ever on the move, having success in extending geographical range and numbers of different species it infects...

    What's worse, once the pandemic starts, the first wave may be the best or the worst for survival, but it's hard to imagine it will be the only wave. There is just too much variation out there at this point. There are bound to be follow-on strains.

    OK, enough contemplating for the moment. Time for a walk...

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    • #3
      Re: BF in Africa, Certain Ruin

      Originally posted by Mellie
      ukcz -

      If the pandemic doesn't come out of China or Indonesia as Osterholm thinks it will; if it doesn't come out of Europe after H5N1 from Africa flies in and recombines with H1N1 in European pigs as Niman predicts, then it seems likely it will come out of Africa.

      I can imagine an African with a suppressed immune system (as a result of being AIDS infected) who then gets coinfected with H5N1 and another subtype of influenza ... mixing pot here we come ... and that person could be a pandemic super spreader for quite a while...

      I wonder if Niman has sequences from Africa that show some necessary humanizing polymorphism is already available there to recombine with H5N1 to create a pandemic strain?

      This virus already has so many strains (clades) and is already available in so many different places... It's bound to hit on picking up some critical human polymorphism sooner rather than later.

      I wish it would hold off for a while so we could get more ready. Unfortunately, I do not believe time is on our side. The virus is more than ever on the move, having success in extending geographical range and numbers of different species it infects...

      What's worse, once the pandemic starts, the first wave may be the best or the worst for survival, but it's hard to imagine it will be the only wave. There is just too much variation out there at this point. There are bound to be follow-on strains.

      OK, enough contemplating for the moment. Time for a walk...
      Mellie,

      You said, "What's worse, once the pandemic starts, the first wave may be the best or the worst for survival, but it's hard to imagine it will be the only wave."

      Would it be better to get H5N1 early before the United States health care system is overwhelmed?... Much like the "chicken pox parties"? The US health care system is pretty well prepared for advanced life support of a "small" number of patients requiring ventilators in the short term.... Just a thought?
      "Predictable is Preventable" by Safety Expert Dr. Gordon Graham.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: BF in Africa Certain Ruin: UNAIDS

        I never got a reply. It was serious question.
        "Predictable is Preventable" by Safety Expert Dr. Gordon Graham.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: BF in Africa Certain Ruin: UNAIDS

          Lob - getting H5N1 anytime is not better... period.

          Comment


          • #6
            H5N1 sooner rather than later?

            Lobotomy,

            It's hard to know if the second or third waves of a pandemic will be worse than the first. Or even if getting it once when hospitals may not be overwhelmed and surviving will protect you from a second wave or third. The second wave was worse than the first in 1918.

            This H5N1 could be a whole 'nother story, because it's a different bug, because there are different strains (clades) out there, because any one of them that are not yet human to human could theoretically recombine with the strain that does go H to H or with another virus subtype to create amother H2H virus. That's why it would be good to have all the Caspian Sea area genomes entered into genbank. They could be analyzed and compared to see if the S227N polymorphism carried over from the Turkey outbreak or if it was a new recombinatin (H5N1 x H9N2) in Iraq (where Osterholm mentioned grandfather caught the virus from grandaughter; at least we think that's what he was referring to). Scientists could also see if the Azerbaijani cases have S227N and if so, whether they are new recombinants or carryovers from Turkey (via wildbirds or poultry sales). How quickly can these viruses recombine is one question we need to have answered.

            Mortality from H5N1 is 60+% right now among reported cases. The 1918 pandemic had an estimated infection rate of about 20+% and a mortality rate of 5%, but as the author of the book on that pandemic said, we rally don't know; it could have been higher in high living density areas of the world and among some groups (like Alaskan Native Americans).

            There has been speculation that there are H5N1 cases today flying below the radar because some people of the world (Japanese chickenhandlers are one group) have tested seropositive for H5N1 without ever demonstrating dramatic H5N1 infection. It's hard to verify infection rates if people only have mild flu-like symptoms and poor hospitals have no incentive to follow or test them. It would be good to test a bunch of people in Indonesia, say, friends and relatives, other contacts in an area where there have been many deaths to see others are seropositive. Problem is, it takes several weeks after infection to seroconvert.

            There's also been speculation that other diseases with shared symptoms with H5N1 might be masking an H5N1 outbreak in humans. In a number of cases that WHO has later found to be H5N1, the initial diagnosis was simply pneumonia or dengue fever or Japanese encephalitis (not sure on this one). ABBF = ANYTHING BUT BIRD FLU is a humerous acronym applied by posters here to some deaths that are possibly ambiguous but declared by the authorities and reported in the media to be of other causes than BF.

            Some here on flutrackers believe that Chik is H5N1 in drag. Time will tell on that one if it can be transmitted H to H or if it's only mosquito to H.

            The early pandemic flu cases in 1918 had scientists scrambling to figure them out... We're good to stay vigilant. I appreciate those who are passionately keeping lookout for us.

            OK, so what was that Q? Oh yeah, NOT SOONER OR LATER is my choice! I'll wait for a viable vaccine and/or herd immunity...

            Welcome Lobotomy. Glad to see you here. I get to answering questions when I have time. Sometimes I overlook replies... If you find me missing something, PM me and I'll try to get to it..
            Last edited by Mellie; March 25, 2006, 12:31 PM.

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