Nigeria - Ebola: Media reports - 1st confirmed secondary cases (two) confirmed - August 22, 2014

[Nordica]

Doctors in Lagos are assessing five new suspected cases of the Ebola virus, a top medical official said, a day after the health minister expressed confidence the outbreak in the country may soon end.

The five people were admitted to a hospital in Nigeria?s coastal commercial hub yesterday and are being monitored in isolation wards, the state?s Commissioner for Health Jide Idris told reporters today. Nigerian Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu said yesterday that Africa?s biggest economy may be Ebola-free within a week as the number of people being treated for the virus had dropped to two.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-20/nigeria-may-be-ebola-free-in-a-week-as-cases-fall-minister-says

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Very confusing news!!!!: confused:

[Nordica]

Five new suspected cases of Ebola Virus Disease were brought to the Yaba Mainland Hospital, Lagos, on Tuesday, the Lagos State government has said.
At a press conference, Wednesday, Jide Idris, the State Commissioner for Health, told journalists that two of those cases were from secondary contacts.

?Till date, we have recorded eight suspected cases, five of which came in yesterday, 12 confirmed,? said Dr. Idris. ?On the whole, five have died (including the index case). We are currently following up 213 contacts, and 62 have completed the two-day follow-up,? he added.
....

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/167037-breaking-lagos-records-5-new-suspected-ebola-cases.html#sthash.w7qlS2Kt.dpbs

[alert]

Doctors in Lagos are assessing five new suspected cases of the Ebola virus, a top medical official said, a day after the health minister expressed confidence the outbreak in the country may soon end.

The five people were admitted to a hospital in Nigeria?s coastal commercial hub yesterday and are being monitored in isolation wards, the state?s Commissioner for Health Jide Idris told reporters today. Nigerian Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu said yesterday that Africa?s biggest economy may be Ebola-free within a week as the number of people being treated for the virus had dropped to two.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-20/nigeria-may-be-ebola-free-in-a-week-as-cases-fall-minister-says

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Very confusing news!!!!: confused:

Yeah, part of the confusion has to do with the case definition. Anyone with a fever and a reasonable exposure will be a suspected case. The 3 cases that started this thread have all been excluded.

We now have 5 new suspects, all of which are either contacts of Sawyer, or contacts of his confirmed case contacts. It may be a bit optimistic, but the fact that at least 2 contacts of Sawyer developed unrelated fever (the two in Lagos at the start of this thread) might raise hopes that some or all of these cases might be excluded as well.

Either way, these cases are not occurring in the general population, it appears.

[JimO]

Yeah, part of the confusion has to do with the case definition. Anyone with a fever and a reasonable exposure will be a suspected case. The 3 cases that started this thread have all been excluded.

We now have 5 new suspects, all of which are either contacts of Sawyer, or contacts of his confirmed case contacts. It may be a bit optimistic, but the fact that at least 2 contacts of Sawyer developed unrelated fever (the two in Lagos at the start of this thread) might raise hopes that these cases might be excluded as well.

Either way, these cases are not occurring in the general population, it appears.

The Sawyer contacts have to be at the outer limits of the incubation period. I suppose they could have started exhibiting early symptoms a little over a week ago and still have fallen within 21 days of exposure.

[alert]

Re: Nigeria - 3 new suspected ebola cases: 2 in Lagos, 1 in in Kaduna - all 3 test NEGATIVE

The Sawyer contacts have to be at the outer limits of the incubation period. I suppose they could have started exhibiting early symptoms a little over a week ago and still have fallen within 21 days of exposure.

I agree. I wonder also if something milder and more common (such as influenza) is circulating in that population, causing illness unrelated to Ebola, as at least two members of that group have suffered such an illness, and one recovered Ebola patient was briefly readmitted for an unrelated fever several days after discharge.

[alert]

And the other five suspected cases might have tested negative too (or been a false rumor?):

http://www.naij.com/279243-new-ebola-case-lagos.html

The Minister of Health, Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, has dismissed reports that there are five fresh cases of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in Lagos.

This was disclosed today, August 20, through his Special Assistant on Media and Communication, Dan Nwomeh who advised Nigerians to disregard any news of fresh cases of the deadly disease.

Nwomeh in a series of tweets advised that any doubtful information on the outbreak of EVD should be verified from the office of the Minister of Health, adding that the Minister of Health has the sole authority to announce confirmed cases of the disease in Nigeria.

[snip]

[alert]

Probably not a rumor, but probably discarded. Here is another report that some of them have tested negative:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=543292#post543292

The reporting here is a bit poor.

[Nordica]

I think it is very strange that many countries get their EVD testing results so quickly (within a day) but in US, with best resources and a lot of knowledge of Ebola, the test results are expected to take several days. Why?

Are they using different test methods? Can we believe in the quick test results?

[Gemineye]

]

Very good question, Nordica. I was wondering the same thing.

[curiosity]

I think it is very strange that many countries get their EVD testing results so quickly (within a day) but in US, with best resources and a lot of knowledge of Ebola, the test results are expected to take several days. Why?

Are they using different test methods? Can we believe in the quick test results?

The only test facility in US is CDC. The location of the suspect case will determine how long it takes for the specimen to get to the CDC. Shipping is available by one courier and must be meticulously handled for obvious reasons.

Additionally, CDC may run several samples to be near absolutely positive the suspect case is a negative. They will not release results until they are confident their test is as accurate as can be.

In other countries, particularly those where they have ramped up response to identify Ebola cases quickly because they are highest risk, my best assumption is the tests are available within the immediate vicinity and/or there are not as many regulations on shipping the specimens.

[Vibrant62]

An initial negative test may become positive as infection progresses and viral load increases.

I suspect that Nigeria et al are announcing single test results as negative, whereas the US are running second tests several days later to confirm the negative result before announcing it.

[Donners]

And the other five suspected cases might have tested negative too (or been a false rumor?):

http://www.naij.com/279243-new-ebola-case-lagos.html

The Minister of Health, Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, has dismissed reports that there are five fresh cases of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in Lagos.

This was disclosed today, August 20, through his Special Assistant on Media and Communication, Dan Nwomeh who advised Nigerians to disregard any news of fresh cases of the deadly disease.

Nwomeh in a series of tweets advised that any doubtful information on the outbreak of EVD should be verified from the office of the Minister of Health, adding that the Minister of Health has the sole authority to announce confirmed cases of the disease in Nigeria.

[snip]

It never says explicitly that they have tested negative, though, simply that they are not confirmed cases. That is entirely consistent with them being suspected cases pending test results.

[Nordica]

A recognition and a denial the same day!
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By Adeola Akinremi, Gboyega Akinsanmi, Busayo Adekoya , Jaiyeola Andrews and Senator Iroegbu The Lagos State Government yesterday disclosed that its contact tracing team had discovered five additional suspected cases of Ebola virus, which were brought in on Tuesday, adding that it had not foreclosed new cases. Of the new unconfirmed cases discovered in the state, the state government said three had primary contact with the Liberian-American, Mr. Patrick Sawyer, while two others were secondary contacts.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201408210987.html

[Ronan Kelly]

AP NewsAlert
ABUJA, Nigeria ? Aug 22, 2014, 7:24 AM ET
Associated Press
Nigeria confirms first 2 Ebola cases beyond those who had direct contact with ill traveler .

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/ap-newsalert-25080873

AP NEWSALERT
Aug. 22, 2014 7:24 AM EDT


ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) ? Nigeria confirms first 2 Ebola cases beyond those who had direct contact with ill traveler .

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ap-newsalert-742

[alert]

Re: Nigeria - Ebola: Media reports - 1st confirmed secondary cases (two) confirmed - August 22, 2014

At least they are contacts of previously confirmed cases. More importantly, they are not the cases beyond 21 days, as they would have had contact with their ill spouses well after Mr. Sawyer's death.

http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/nigeria-records-two-new-cases-ebola-health-minister

Nigeria records two new cases of Ebola: health minister



Report
from Agence France-Presse
Published on 22 Aug 2014

08/22/2014 11:50 GMT

ABUJA, August 22, 2014 (AFP) - Nigeria on Friday said that two more people had tested positive for Ebola, taking the total number of confirmed cases of the deadly virus in the country to 14, including five deaths.

"Nigeria has now recorded the first two cases of Ebola Virus Disease in secondary contacts of the index case," Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu told a news conference in Abuja.

"The two patients are spouses of primary contacts of the Liberian American," the minister said, referring to Patrick Sawyer, who died in a private Lagos hospital on July 25.

[snip]

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Also worth mentioning that of the 8 total suspected cases, four of them have been discarded, leaving now two pending testing:

http://reliefweb.int/report/nigeria/ebola-virus-disease-nigeria-daily-situation-report-sitrep-no-21-20th-august-2014