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Coronavirus fatalities in the US, daily figures, charts.

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  • Coronavirus fatalities in the US, daily figures, charts.

    For the past several years, I have been plotting and comparing week to week influenza mortality data gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. The number of coded flu deaths is only a part of the estimated flu deaths each week. I added US coronavirus deaths by week to the plot and got this:

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Influenza Mortality.png Views:	415 Size:	81.7 KB ID:	842587 I know it's not apples to apples, the estimated number of flu deaths is about 6 times higher than the numbers recorded by the NCHS, but there is every reason to believe that the actual number of coronavirus fatalities is also larger than the subset that gets confirmed. There has only been 4 weeks of data. Where is this going to end up?
    Twitter: @RonanKelly13
    The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

  • #2
    Coronavirus deaths each day:

    3/18: 38
    3/19: 43
    3/20: 54
    3/21: 79
    3/22: 105
    3/23: 124
    3/24: 157
    3/25: 220
    3/26: 280
    3/27: 361
    3/28: 514

    If the current rate of growth continues, we could see 6-10,000 additional coronavirus fatalities in the US within the next week ending the week on a toll of up to 2,000 deaths per day.
    Twitter: @RonanKelly13
    The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

    Comment


    • #3
      There are about 7800 deaths per day on average in the US.
      So the virus risks increasing the death rate by about 25%, concentrated among the older population.
      Not sure that the economic collapse it generates has been factored in.

      Comment


      • #4
        The virus outbreak is actually reducing the national death rate!
        The CDC keeps track of weekly mortality in the US and the data available for the most recent week (ending March 7) shows about 48,000 deaths, sharply down from the normal 55,000.

        See: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7a...ences.pdf?dl=0

        The chart is quite striking, the effect of the virus has been to make the US safer.

        Comment


        • JJackson
          JJackson commented
          Editing a comment
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._death_by_rate
          Looking at the graph at the link it is difficult to think of a mechanism. Nearly all the big killers are on the COVID comorbidity list. Things you would expect to fall like road deaths and homicides are way down the list.

        • Ronan Kelly
          Ronan Kelly commented
          Editing a comment
          I'd be curious to see the completion rate of reporting this past few weeks.

        • Emily
          Emily commented
          Editing a comment
          Cardiovascular deaths are triggered by stress, so not commuting or being in toxic work environments might reduce those deaths for awhile in the vulnerable age group. Lots of people are posting videos about their pets and how relaxing it is to hang at home with them. Suicide is a big killer of the young and usually done while alone and if family is now working from home or not working, those deaths would be cut. Sudden deaths don't put a big strain on the critical care system like this pneumonia does, so that could explain why deaths are overall down but there is still a nightmare in the hospitals.

      • #5
        I'm not sure how true the allegation of reduced overall mortality is, the dropbox link is no longer functional and then there's this;

        False: “In Chicago, Covid-19 actually LOWERED the death rate.” : False
        By Haley BeMillerApril 3, 2020
        ...


        The examiner’s office handled 413 deaths in Chicago in March, according to its case archive as of April 2. At least 11 of them were tied to COVID-19, while other causes of death ranged from gunshot wounds to cardiovascular disease.
        In March 2019, by comparison, the medical examiner saw 279 deaths in Chicago. There were 301 Chicago cases in March 2018 and 306 in March 2017.

        These numbers show the virus doesn’t appear to be decreasing deaths as the Facebook post suggested. Instead, officials say it's likely the opposite.

        "The uptick you are seeing is a direct correlation to the rise in COVID-19 cases," said Natalia Derevyanny, director of communications for the Cook County Bureau of Administration."
        https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...te-drop-chica/
        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

        Comment


        • Emily
          Emily commented
          Editing a comment
          I agree there appears to have been an error in the dropbox data. Gsgs asked me about that and CDC seems to have all causes weekly mortality data only through 2018. 2019 will come out in June, I think. King County (Seattle) refers to CDC data so no way to tally the numbers for the whole country adding up county data for the past few weeks.

      • #6
        Updated flu & covid chart - see first post for limitations
        Click image for larger version  Name:	Influenza Mortality.png Views:	35 Size:	51.1 KB ID:	845574 and a visual of how fatalities per day in the US are progressing.

        Click image for larger version  Name:	Coronavirus Calendar.png Views:	3 Size:	34.3 KB ID:	845575
        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

        Comment


        • JJackson
          JJackson commented
          Editing a comment
          'A picture is worth a thousand words' personified. For anyone who still thinks COVID is 'just another flu' and overblown your graph is a neutralising antigen.
          Ronan thanks.

      • #7
        Coronavirus death toll in U.S. almost certainly higher than official count

        COMMENTSBy Emma Brown, Beth Reinhard and Aaron C. Davis, The Washington Post
        April 5, 2020 | 2:29 PM
        The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not included in the nation’s growing death toll, according to public health experts and government officials involved in the tally.

        The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.

        A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives.
        ...
        https://www.boston.com/news/national...rus-death-toll
        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

        Comment


        • #8
          Confirmed weekly flu deaths for the past 8 years and Confirmed weekly coronavirus deaths - see first post for limitations.
          Click image for larger version  Name:	Influenza Mortality.png Views:	1 Size:	42.5 KB ID:	848160
          The most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC then estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of perhaps 6,500 flu deaths in a week. This past week we saw 12,137 reported coronavirus deaths.



          Daily coronavirus deaths

          Click image for larger version  Name:	image_30712.png Views:	4 Size:	43.5 KB ID:	848159
          Twitter: @RonanKelly13
          The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

          Comment


          • #9
            Scott Gottlieb: Coronavirus Would Have Been ‘Far More Deadly than Spanish Flu’ If It Appeared in 1918: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...eared-in-1918/

            Comment


            • #10
              Click image for larger version

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              Using flu data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system, the most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of approximately 6,500 flu deaths in a week. This past week we saw 18,225 reported coronavirus deaths.
              Twitter: @RonanKelly13
              The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

              Comment


              • #11

                Daily reported fatalities:Click image for larger version  Name:	Coronavirus Calendar.png Views:	1 Size:	83.3 KB ID:	854202
                Fatalities by week:
                Click image for larger version  Name:	Influenza Mortality.png Views:	1 Size:	48.1 KB ID:	854203
                Flu death data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. The number of coded flu deaths is only a part of the estimated flu deaths each week.
                Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                Comment


                • #12
                  Daily COVID deaths:
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                  Fatalities by week:
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                  Using flu data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system, the most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 coded Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of approximately 6,500 flu deaths in a week. This past week we saw 12,945 reported coronavirus deaths.
                  Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                  The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                  Comment


                  • #13
                    here the yearly flu and covid induced mortality-hills in Europe :
                    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-m...res-by-country

                    should we do such NPI-measures in s severe flu-season ?
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #14
                      Daily fatalities:

                      Click image for larger version  Name:	Coronavirus Calendar 1.png Views:	1 Size:	103.3 KB ID:	859120

                      Using flu data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system, the most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of approximately 6,500 flu deaths in a week.
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                      Week // Coronavirus fatalities
                      Week 9: 1
                      Week 10: 16
                      Week 11: 49
                      Week 12: 265
                      Week 13: 1,760
                      Week 14: 6,259
                      Week 15: 12,137
                      Week 16: 18,225
                      Week 17: 14,760
                      Week 18: 12,945
                      Week 19: 12,298
                      Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                      The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                      Comment


                      • #15
                        Daily fatalities:

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                        Week // Coronavirus fatalities
                        Week 9: 1
                        Week 10: 16
                        Week 11: 49
                        Week 12: 265
                        Week 13: 1,760
                        Week 14: 6,259
                        Week 15: 12,137
                        Week 16: 18,225
                        Week 17: 14,760
                        Week 18: 12,945
                        Week 19: 12,298
                        Week 20: 9,899

                        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

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