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VIDEO: Discussion of RO, Containment, timing of peak virus

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  • VIDEO: Discussion of RO, Containment, timing of peak virus

    I didn't see that this video has been posted yet (if it has, my apologies ... please feel free to delete). VERY good info:

    Discussion of RO, Containment, timing of peak virus... all English
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3P 2QYnaxwPbPea-eppO6KpX5RHGkSR2b0-VBqyfk91LlIzv9AgKTQgWVo

    My own transcript from part of this video:

    The forecast is
    #1: Big question-We now have a major population or city wide or cluster of city-wide or megalopolis wide quarantine of population movement (as we have seen as of Jan 23 & 24th, starting from Wuhan and then extending to several of the neighboring cities in and around Wuhan.

    Now what we did was to do 2 scenarios :

    Click image for larger version

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    The upper panel shows that if there had NOT been such a population quarantine and the lower panels shows that there is such a population quarantine . As you can see, they are ALMOST IDENTICAL! Which suggests that this population quarantine may NOT be able to substantially change the course of this epidemic in the other major city clusters. It is not to say it is ineffective, but it may not be able to change in a substantial way the epidemic curves would develop or is expected to develop in these other major Chinese city clusters, as listed.

    As you can see, this is a rather complicated slide … (he starts to talk about the effect of travel from Wuhan & other significant communities) …

    … The timing of the peak is somewhere around April-May …

  • #2
    Thanks for the link it was excellent. He does an great job explaining the testing regime and its current limitations in the Q&A.

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    • #3
      Thanks Readymom. That was one of the most honest assessments I've ever heard of a disease outbreak from someone in an official capacity.
      "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

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