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Nat Commun
. 2022 Aug 9;13(1):4380.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w.
A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia
Cecilia A Sánchez 1 , Hongying Li 1 , Kendra L Phelps 1 , Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio 2 , Lin-Fa Wang 3 , Peng Zhou 4 , Zheng-Li Shi 4 , Kevin J Olival 1 , Peter Daszak 5
Affiliations
- PMID: 35945197
- DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w
Abstract
Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.