J Health Econ . God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks

[tetano]

J Health Econ


. 2021 Dec 9;81:102575.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102575. Online ahead of print.
God is in the rain: The impact of rainfall-induced early social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks


Ajay Shenoy ¹ , Bhavyaa Sharma ² , Guanghong Xu ² , Rolly Kapoor ² , Haedong Aiden Rho ² , Kinpritma Sangha ³



Affiliations

• PMID: 34923344
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102575

Abstract

We measure the benefit to society created by preventing COVID-19 deaths through a marginal increase in early social distancing. We exploit county-level rainfall on the last weekend before statewide lockdown in the early phase of the pandemic. After controlling for historical rainfall, temperature, and state fixed-effects, current rainfall is a plausibly exogenous instrument for social distancing. A one percent decrease in the population leaving home on the weekend before lockdown creates an average of 132 dollars of benefit per county resident within 2 weeks. The impacts of earlier distancing compound over time and mainly arise from lowering the risk of a major outbreak, yielding large but unevenly distributed social benefit.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Rainfall; Social distancing.