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BMC Public Health
. 2021 Jun 28;21(1):1239.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-11236-3.
State variation in effects of state social distancing policies on COVID-19 cases
Brystana G Kaufman 1 2 3 , Rebecca Whitaker 4 , Nirosha Mahendraratnam 4 , Sophie Hurewitz 4 , Jeremy Yi 4 , Valerie A Smith 5 6 7 , Mark McClellan 4
Affiliations
- PMID: 34182972
- DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11236-3
Abstract
Background: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sickened over 20 million residents in the United States (US) by January 2021. Our objective was to describe state variation in the effect of initial social distancing policies and non-essential business (NEB) closure on infection rates early in 2020.
Methods: We used an interrupted time series study design to estimate the total effect of all state social distancing orders, including NEB closure, shelter-in-place, and stay-at-home orders, on cumulative COVID-19 cases for each state. Data included the daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for all 50 states and Washington, DC from the New York Times database (January 21 to May 7, 2020). We predicted cumulative daily cases and deaths using a generalized linear model with a negative binomial distribution and a log link for two models.
Results: Social distancing was associated with a 15.4% daily reduction (Relative Risk = 0.846; Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.832, 0.859) in COVID-19 cases. After 3 weeks, social distancing prevented nearly 33 million cases nationwide, with about half (16.5 million) of those prevented cases among residents of the Mid-Atlantic census division (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania). Eleven states prevented more than 10,000 cases per 100,000 residents within 3 weeks.
Conclusions: The effect of social distancing on the infection rate of COVID-19 in the US varied substantially across states, and effects were largest in states with highest community spread.
Keywords: COVID-19; Health policy; Outcomes research; Public health; Social distancing.