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Infect Dis Model
. 2021;6:618-631.
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.03.007. Epub 2021 Mar 31.
Transmission analysis of COVID-19 with discrete time imported cases: Tianjin and Chongqing as cases
Ming-Tao Li 1 , Jin Cui 1 , Juan Zhang 2 , Gui-Quan Sun 2 3
Affiliations
- PMID: 33821224
- PMCID: PMC8010348
- DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.03.007
Abstract
In 2020, an unexpectedly large outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic was reported in mainland China. As we known, the epidemic was caused by imported cases in other provinces of China except for Hubei in 2020. In this paper, we developed a differential equation model with tracing isolation strategy with close contacts of newly confirmed cases and discrete time imported cases, to perform assessment and risk analysis for COVID-19 outbreaks in Tianjin and Chongqing city. Firstly, the model behavior without imported cases was given. Then, the real-time regeneration number in Tianjin and Chongqing city revealed a trend of rapidly rising, and then falling fast. Finally, sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the earlier with Wuhan lock-down, the fewer cases in these two cities. One can obtain that the tracing isolation of close contacts of newly confirmed cases could effectively control the spread of the disease. But it is not sensitive for the more contact tracing isolation days on confirmed cases, the fewer cases. Our investigation model could be potentially helpful to provide model building technology for the transmission of COVID-19.
Keywords: City lock-down; Coronavirus disease 2019; The real-time regeneration number; Tracing isolation.