Chaos Solitons Fractals . A mathematical model to examine the effect of quarantine on the spread of coronavirus

[tetano]

Chaos Solitons Fractals


. 2020 Nov 30;110418.
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110418. Online ahead of print.
A mathematical model to examine the effect of quarantine on the spread of coronavirus


A Babaei ¹ , M Ahmadi ¹ , H Jafari ^{1 2 3} , A Liya ¹



Affiliations

• PMID: 33288973
• PMCID: PMC7703523
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110418

Abstract

In this study, we propose a mathematical model about the spread of novel coronavirus. This model is a system of fractional order differential equations in Caputo's sense. The aim is to explain the virus transmission and to investigate the impact of quarantine on decreasing the prevalence rate of the virus in the environment. The unique solvability of the presented COVID-19 model is proved. Also, the equilibrium points and the reproduction number of the proposed model are discussed in two cases with and without considering the quarantine factor. Using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton predictor-corrector method, some numerical simulations are implemented to survey the behavior of the considered model.

Keywords: Caputo derivative; Coronavirus; Mathematical model; Reproduction number; Stability analysis.