R Soc Open Sci . Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with ℛ 0 higher than initially estimated

[tetano]

R Soc Open Sci


. 2020 Sep 23;7(9):200786.
doi: 10.1098/rsos.200786. eCollection 2020 Sep.
Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with ℛ ₀ higher than initially estimated


Marek Kochańczyk ¹ , Frederic Grabowski ² , Tomasz Lipniacki ¹



Affiliations

• PMID: 33047040
• PMCID: PMC7540800
• DOI: 10.1098/rsos.200786

Abstract

The basic reproduction number R0


of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. Here, we used an SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates of the doubling time in the near-exponential phases of epidemic progression in China, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, Switzerland and New York State, we estimated that R0 lies in the range 4.7-11.4. We explained this discrepancy by performing stochastic simulations of model dynamics in a population with a small proportion of super-spreaders. The simulations revealed two-phase dynamics, in which an initial phase of relatively slow epidemic progression diverts to a faster phase upon appearance of infectious super-spreaders. Early estimates obtained for this initial phase may suggest lower R0
.



Keywords: COVID-19; reproduction number.