F1000Res . Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal

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F1000Res


. 2020 Apr 23;9:283.
doi: 10.12688/f1000research.23401.1. eCollection 2020.
Predicting the evolution and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal


Ricardo J Pais ¹ , Nuno Taveira ^{1 2}



Affiliations

• PMID: 32983416
• PMCID: PMC7503179
• DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.23401.1

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 March 2020. The Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through social isolation measures. We have developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of such measures in the number of infected cases and peak of infection. We estimate the peak to be around 2 million infected cases by the beginning of May if no additional measures are taken. The model shows that current measures effectively isolated 25-30% of the population, contributing to some reduction on the infection peak. Importantly, our simulations show that the infection burden can be further reduced with higher isolation degree, providing information for a second intervention.

Keywords: COVID-19; Mathematical model; Pandemic Control; Predictive modeling; Simulation; Social Isolation.