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Int J Infect Dis
. 2020 Sep 16;S1201-9712(20)30745-1.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.028. Online ahead of print.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 Population-based Prevalence, Risk Factors, Hospitalization, and Fatality Rates in Southern Brazil
Rafael V Picon 1 , Ion? Carreno 2 , Andr? Anjos da Silva 3 , M?rcio Mossmann 4 , Gabriela Laste 5 , Guilherme de Campos Domingues 4 , Lara Faria Fernandes Heringer 4 , Brenda Rodrigues Gheno 4 , Leticia Le?o Alvarenga 4 , Magali Conte 6
Affiliations
- PMID: 32949778
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.028
Abstract
Objectives: To assess population-based prevalence, risk factors, hospitalization, and infection fatality rates (IFR) associated with COVID-19.
Methods: We conducted two household surveys among the non-institutionalized adult population from May 30 to June 17, 2020, in Lajeado, an 84,000-inhabitants industrial city in southern Brazil. Primary outcome was prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Secondary outcomes were COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths occurring up to June 20, 2020. We summarized prevalence rates across surveys with meta-analysis. We assessed age-range IFR and hospitalization rate and regressed these rates over age strata using nonlinear coefficients of determination (R2).
Results: Summarized overall prevalence was 3.40% (95% CI, 2.74 to 4.18), 34% lower in elderly ≥60 years-old. IFR ranged from 0.08% (0.06 to 0.11) to 4.63% (2.93 to 7.84) in individuals 20 to 39 years-old and ≥60 years-old, respectively. R2 for exponential age-dependent hospitalization rate and IFR were 0.98 and 0.93 (both p-values <0.0001), respectively.
Conclusions: This is the first population-based study in Brazil to estimate COVID-19 prevalence, hospitalization and fatality rates per age stratum. Rates were largely age-dependent. Household contacts and MPP workers are at higher risk of infection. Our findings are valuable for health-policy making and resource allocation to mitigate the pandemic.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; hospitalization; infection fatality rate; prevalence.