J Infect Dis . COVID-19 epidemic doubling time in the United States before and during stay-at-home restrictions

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J Infect Dis


. 2020 Aug 1;jiaa491.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa491. Online ahead of print.
COVID-19 epidemic doubling time in the United States before and during stay-at-home restrictions


Mark N Lurie ¹ , Joe Silva ¹ , Rachel R Yorlets ¹ , Jun Tao ² , Philip A Chan ²



Affiliations

• PMID: 32738142
• DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa491

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020.
Methods: We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state and in association with stay-at-home orders.
Results: Epidemic doubling time in the US was 2.68 days (95%CI:2.30-3.24) prior to widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 82% to 15 days (95%CI:12.89-17.94) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, median increase in doubling time was 34% (95%CI:21.16-68.85) while for states with stay-at-home orders, median increase was 72.9% (95%CI:69.18-76.11).
Discussion: Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; epidemic doubling time.