Emerg Microbes Infect. Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China

[tetano]

Emerg Microbes Infect. 2020 Apr 22:1-28. doi: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1760143. [Epub ahead of print]
Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China.


Zhang C¹, Chen C¹, Shen W¹, Tang F¹, Lei H², Xie Y¹, Cao Z¹, Tang K¹, Bai J¹, Xiao L¹, Xu Y³, Song Y⁴, Chen J³, Guo Z¹, Guo Y¹, Wang X¹, Xu M¹, Zou H¹, Shu Y^1,5, Du X^1,5.

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Abstract

Since Dec 2019, China have experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R²=0.85, P <0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R²=0.88, P <0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) and 83% (78%-89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%-92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%-16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.



KEYWORDS:

2019-nCov; population movement; risk; spread; travel ban


PMID:32321369DOI:10.1080/22221751.2020.1760143