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Sci Rep
. 2025 Jul 30;15(1):27804.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-12946-z. Modeling COVID-19 transmission: effects of age structure and vaccination
Sajjad Ali 1 , Salah Boulaaras 2 , Nigar Ali 1 , Imtiaz Ahmad 1 , Asaf Khan 3 4 , Zahid Ullah 1
Affiliations
A mathematical model for COVID-19 dynamics is developed, incorporating age structure, disease progression, and vaccination. Addressing gaps in existing literature, the model integrates heterogeneous intercohort mixing for realistic disease transmission, with a primary focus on Pakistan and global applicability. Well-posedness is established via the abstract Cauchy problem framework. Threshold parameters and stability analysis identify conditions for disease persistence or eradication. An age-free sub-model gives additional insights. Numerical simulations using the finite differences method confirm analytical results. The study shows the crucial role of age structure and vaccination in controlling COVID-19. It provides a strong mathematical foundation for effective public health strategies.
Keywords: Abstract Cauchy problem; Age-structured model; COVID-19 dynamics; Heterogeneous mixing intercohort mixing; Numerical simulations; Stability analysis; Vaccination; Well-posedness.
. 2025 Jul 30;15(1):27804.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-12946-z. Modeling COVID-19 transmission: effects of age structure and vaccination
Sajjad Ali 1 , Salah Boulaaras 2 , Nigar Ali 1 , Imtiaz Ahmad 1 , Asaf Khan 3 4 , Zahid Ullah 1
Affiliations
- PMID: 40739114
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-12946-z
A mathematical model for COVID-19 dynamics is developed, incorporating age structure, disease progression, and vaccination. Addressing gaps in existing literature, the model integrates heterogeneous intercohort mixing for realistic disease transmission, with a primary focus on Pakistan and global applicability. Well-posedness is established via the abstract Cauchy problem framework. Threshold parameters and stability analysis identify conditions for disease persistence or eradication. An age-free sub-model gives additional insights. Numerical simulations using the finite differences method confirm analytical results. The study shows the crucial role of age structure and vaccination in controlling COVID-19. It provides a strong mathematical foundation for effective public health strategies.
Keywords: Abstract Cauchy problem; Age-structured model; COVID-19 dynamics; Heterogeneous mixing intercohort mixing; Numerical simulations; Stability analysis; Vaccination; Well-posedness.