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Open Forum Infect Dis
. 2025 Jun 11;12(6):ofaf262.
doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofaf262. eCollection 2025 Jun. Spatiotemporal Association of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases and Deaths With Exposure to Wildfire Particulate Matter in 2020
Thomas C McHale 1 , David R Boulware 1 , Kelly Searle 2 , Leda Kobziar 3 , Phinehas Lampman 3 4 , Julio C Zuniga-Moya 5 , Ben Papadopoulos 5 , Andrej Spec 5 , Naomi E Hauser 6 , George R Thompson 6
Affiliations
Background: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on human health, including in infectious diseases. Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and have been linked to worsening respiratory disease outcomes. We aimed to demonstrate whether there was an association between wildfire smoke and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in California during 2020.
Methods: We used an ecologic cohort study with a spatial autoregressive model to test for associations between wildfire smoke, measured as particulate matter <2.5 µg/m3 and COVID-19 cases and deaths at the county level in California in 2020. All data was downloaded from open sources that were freely available to the public. In our spatial autoregressive model, we adjusted for demographic, environmental factors and spatial autocorrelation that could be associated with the exposure and outcome.
Results: In an adjusted analysis, we found a 1-month lag increase of 203 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P < .001) at the county level. There was a 1-month lag increase of 2.75 COVID-19 deaths per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P < .001) at the county level. These findings were attenuated in the second month after smoke exposure, with a 2-month lag increase of 80.6 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P = .002) and no 2-month lag association with COVID-19 deaths.
Conclusions: The year 2020 was particularly strong for wildfires in California and a unique year for infectious diseases with the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings demonstrate that wildfire smoke exposure likely increased the spread of COVID-19 and worsened the mortality rate.
Keywords: COVID-19; spatial autocorrelation; spatial autoregressive models; wildfire particulate matter.
. 2025 Jun 11;12(6):ofaf262.
doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofaf262. eCollection 2025 Jun. Spatiotemporal Association of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases and Deaths With Exposure to Wildfire Particulate Matter in 2020
Thomas C McHale 1 , David R Boulware 1 , Kelly Searle 2 , Leda Kobziar 3 , Phinehas Lampman 3 4 , Julio C Zuniga-Moya 5 , Ben Papadopoulos 5 , Andrej Spec 5 , Naomi E Hauser 6 , George R Thompson 6
Affiliations
- PMID: 40503390
- PMCID: PMC12152477
- DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofaf262
Background: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on human health, including in infectious diseases. Wildfires have been increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change and have been linked to worsening respiratory disease outcomes. We aimed to demonstrate whether there was an association between wildfire smoke and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in California during 2020.
Methods: We used an ecologic cohort study with a spatial autoregressive model to test for associations between wildfire smoke, measured as particulate matter <2.5 µg/m3 and COVID-19 cases and deaths at the county level in California in 2020. All data was downloaded from open sources that were freely available to the public. In our spatial autoregressive model, we adjusted for demographic, environmental factors and spatial autocorrelation that could be associated with the exposure and outcome.
Results: In an adjusted analysis, we found a 1-month lag increase of 203 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P < .001) at the county level. There was a 1-month lag increase of 2.75 COVID-19 deaths per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P < .001) at the county level. These findings were attenuated in the second month after smoke exposure, with a 2-month lag increase of 80.6 COVID-19 cases per 10 000 persons per 10 µg/m3 of smoke exposure (P = .002) and no 2-month lag association with COVID-19 deaths.
Conclusions: The year 2020 was particularly strong for wildfires in California and a unique year for infectious diseases with the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings demonstrate that wildfire smoke exposure likely increased the spread of COVID-19 and worsened the mortality rate.
Keywords: COVID-19; spatial autocorrelation; spatial autoregressive models; wildfire particulate matter.