Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia - Preprint

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia - Preprint

    medRxiv preprint
    doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.09.21263359; this version posted September 14, 2021.

    Cecilia A. Sánchez1, Hongying Li1, Kendra L. Phelps1, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio1, Lin-Fa Wang2, Kevin J. Olival1, Peter Daszak1*

    Abstract

    Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g. SARS, MERS, SADS and COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades.
    Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this “hidden” spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ~400,000 people (median: ~50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...359v1.full.pdf
Working...
X