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The three flu-related biotechs (NVAX, BCRX, and PPHM) that I watch were all up between 4 and 5 percent today. This was probably a reaction to the WHO admission of Indonesian h2h. Basically, the market (people who vote with their wallets) IMHO has determined that the threat level should now be raised a bit.
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
These same three stocks have been plunging lately along with the price of gold. My take is that avian flu is, for now, a non-event among market participants. -
Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
The market says that bird flu is not a threat but the slowing U.S. economy and the latest Middle East war are.Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
GSK's Bird Flu Data Quell Vaccine Supply Fears
That headline yesterday apparently dropped NVAX and BCRX a whopping 10 percent today. Either there is no bird-flu threat or GSK (Glaxo Smith-Kline) is planning on supplying vaccine to the entire world.Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
GSK is down a couple bucks since the news about its vaccine trials. Most bird flu stocks are at or near their 52-week lows. The market not only doesn't care about bird flu, I wonder if its tainted some of the companies trying to deal with it or profit from it.
Shrug.Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
I also noticed that GSK has been down, even with positive news about a vaccine. It may be time to start watching these biotech stocks as leading indicators of impending bird flu.
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Last fall and into winter, NVAX and BCRX seemed like proxies on birdflu when they started heading up both peaking very early in '06. Now, they are both down around 50% from their highs. I don't think you can use GSK to measure a threat-level as it is into everything and flu is probably a minor concern. My question is: Has GSK ruined all prospects for these companies or is the market now totally ignoring the threat and is that a possible opportunity ? My gut says that if the threat reappears in the headlines that NVAX will quickly double, maybe triple.
Profiteering disclaimer: If I buy NVAX, I'm taking a huge risk on a small, risky biotech (ie, capitalism). Should it triple in a pandemic, that's great - I'll have one small win in a tidal wave of losses. My purchasing power (in dollars) will erode, my home's value will fall dramatically, jobs will end as well as access to healthcare, and the value of any assets will fall possibly to zero. I will still end up a huge loser. No way can this be considered profiteering.Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
GSK's Bird Flu Data Quell Vaccine Supply Fears
Peter Kang, 07.26.06, 5:21 PM ET
GlaxoSmithKline announced today new clinical trial data for an experimental bird flu vaccine, which the British drug giant hopes will quell concerns of a potential shortage should a global pandemic break out.
GSK (nyse: GSK - news - people ) said its vaccine, which uses an adjuvant -- an agent that boosts the immune system and amplifies a drug's effectiveness -- demonstrated a high immune response at a very low dose of vaccine.
Interim results of a 400-patient trial in Belgium showed effectiveness in 80% of patients treated.
"This means that we could make very large quantities of the vaccine if needed for a flu pandemic and potentially greatly increase the number of individuals that could be vaccinated," a company spokeswoman said.
GSK said it plans to begin the process for regulatory approval "in the coming months," according to a release.
"Data from the GSK study should eliminate fears about the lack of adequate global vaccine capacity if an H5N1 pandemic occurs," wrote Ken Trbovich of RBC Capital Markets in a Wednesday report. "By our estimates GSK alone could produce enough of its H5N1 vaccine to inoculate one billion people."
The biotech analyst said the news does not bode well for many of the small biopharmaceutical companies working on their own treatments.
"The GSK data is a significant setback for Novavax and nearly all of the early stage companies that had hoped to parlay the fears of a pandemic into a robust vaccine business," he said.
However, Vinny Jindal, a biotechnology analyst with ThinkEquity Partners, said the news out of London is far from a panacea.
"It could definitely prevent substantial portions of people from ever contracting H5N1 but it would be a stretch to say it's a silver bullet for bird flu," Jindal said in an interview. "Novel treatments will be as crucial a part of our response to the avian flu as vaccines."
The analyst pointed out that avian flu patients treated with Roche's influenza treatment Tamiflu have the same mortality rate as those not treated. "New drugs will be needed to address patients that are already infected with H5N1 for whom the vaccines fail," he said.
A previous version of this story incorrectly cited Jason Kantor of RBC Capital Markets as the author of the report.Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
I don't think you have to justify your position. Your stock choices are simply gambles on your perception of future events that may or may not happen.Originally posted by Binkerbear
Suppose for instance, that an H5N1 pandemic starts, and stocks tank in sectors such as Cruise Ships, Resort Chains, Non-gambling, entertainment destinations, Travel Agencies, Restaurants, Motion Picture Studios etc.
(http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...6&postcount=10)
But I am a contrarian so I go long and buy as much as I can afford. And then, miraculously, an effective vaccine is developed, the CFR falls to .0001%, the stocks come back and I make a fortune. (Yeah, like that is going to happen
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Does that make me a profiteer from the pandemic? Absolutely, but no will criticize me. Why? Because few people died and not too many suffered. Since none of us know what the future holds with a pandemic, we can not be accused of being profiteers simply because we adjust our investment holdings to maximize our gains and preserve as much of our capital as possible in light of uncertain knowledge about future events.
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Absolutely, Al. That was a great explanation. I hope some may be swayed by it. It's the foundation of our system and it's what makes this country great. To me, it's no different than prepping with survival as the goal.Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Guys... i don't really get this moral anti-profiteering business. The idea of our system is to make a profit.
Can someone explain why it is bad to attempt to anticipate market moves, company moves and public perceptions to make a buck regardless of the "whys"?Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Good question. If we're all on the same page here then why did the "page" get removed for awhile. Anticipating market moves and making an investment based on it seems identical to anticipating bird flu and investing in food, water, and other supplies.
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Both NVAX and BCRX have started ticking up in the last few days after several months of decline. Now that bird flu is reappearing in the MSM, these stocks will be interesting to watch. As more bad news filters out, will prices continue up and will volume start showing steady increases day after day ?
Should these stocks ever spike up in price and volume with no related (company specific) news, I, for one, will go into this mode:
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
I love having my own thread. :o Anyway, of note today: While NVAX was up a whopping 4 %, VRA was up almost 17 % and AVII was up an astounding 19 %. Most of the other flu biotechs were up today as well. [Disclaimer: I do not own these and monitor them only trying to determine the seriousness of a pandemic threat.]Comment
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Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators
Binkerbear
So are you yet ?
I find these posts interesting. I do not own, nor will buy any these stocks or related genre.
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