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Speaker details dangers of avian flu
'We will see bodies pile up,' physician cautions
By John Mitchell, jmitchell@VenturaCountyStar.com
September 22, 2006
At the end of Dr. Michael Osterholm's presentation on an avian influenza pandemic to members and guests of the World Affairs Council of Ventura County, Jay Berger, the council's executive director, took the microphone.
He thanked Osterholm for his talk, then added, "even though you scared the living bejeebies out of me."
Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and associate director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, said a potentially deadly bird flu pandemic is coming.
He doesn't know when or where it will land in the United States, but, he said, a serious effort should be mounted "right now" by federal, state and local agencies to prepare for it.
"If the pandemic is caused by H5N1, the avian influenza virus strain currently circulating in Asia, it could kill as many as 1.9 million Americans and infect 30 to 60 percent of the population," he said, adding that H5N1 is the most powerful influenza virus detected in modern history.
Osterholm told the approximately 150 people at Wednesday's dinner meeting in Westlake Village that H5N1 has many similarities to the H1N1 virus.
That virus killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide in 1918-19, the National Institutes of Health says on its Web site. A report on a Stanford University Web site says about 675,000 of them were Americans.
Currently, H5N1 can be passed from bird to animal to human, and the virus could evolve to a stage where it could be passed from human to human, Osterholm said.
According to the World Health Organization, bird flu has infected 247 people since 2003 and killed at least 144 of them. United Nations and Nigerian health officials suspect Nigeria may be the first country in Africa to have bird flu casualties. A search is being conducted in areas where it is known that chickens live with families.
For people who doubt the looming danger, Osterholm said, "I wouldn't bet my family's life that it's not going to happen."
Currently, there is no bird flu vaccine, he said.
"We're still using 1950s vaccine," he said. "Over the decades there has been only one major modification to it. And H5N1 vaccine research results generally have been disappointing.
"We may be years away from a modern influenza vaccine with enough production capacity for the world."
When the pandemic hits, what will it be like?
"Imagine a 12-to-18-month global blizzard," he said.
Osterholm said areas to be concerned about include worker and patient protection (from the virus), and medical devices and staffing.
Even the dead will be contagious.
"Corpse management, the handling of the dead and how we grieve, will be very important," he said.
"We will see bodies pile up right here in Ventura County. You've got to start planning, locally, now."
Individuals and families should stockpile a six- to 12-week supply of food and water in their homes, he said. Business and education areas must prepare to protect employees and students.
Planning should cover quarantine, border closings, social distancing (such as working from home instead of the office), infection control and respiratory protection, Osterholm said.
Also, the pharmaceutical industry should be encouraged to increase its medication inventory in pharmacies and other outlets.
Otherwise, monthly prescriptions will not be filled.
"There are many areas to be considered," he said.
Before Osterholm's talk, Ventura County Sheriff Bob Brooks and Ventura County Health Officer Dr. Robert Levin addressed the pandemic issue.
Brooks said his department is working with public health in planning for pandemic influenza, a smallpox outbreak, a chemical attack and a nuclear attack.
The department also participates in the Public Health Bio Medical Advisory Council and in mass evacuation planning.
It is also dealing with issues of providing security at vaccination sites; responding to public disorders because of a breakdown in the distribution of food or other critical shortage. Also, plans are being made on how to provide public services despite losing 30 percent to 40 percent of personnel to the flu virus.
Levin said a critical part of his department's planning is to tell the public things may collapse around them.
"That is where they come in," he said. "The antidote for closed grocery stores is a full pantry of dry and canned goods at home. The treatment for a power shortage is flashlights and radios that crank up or run on batteries."
Levin recommended going to an American Red Cross Web site that has information on preparing for a disaster, which is at
'We will see bodies pile up,' physician cautions
By John Mitchell, jmitchell@VenturaCountyStar.com
September 22, 2006
At the end of Dr. Michael Osterholm's presentation on an avian influenza pandemic to members and guests of the World Affairs Council of Ventura County, Jay Berger, the council's executive director, took the microphone.
He thanked Osterholm for his talk, then added, "even though you scared the living bejeebies out of me."
Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and associate director of the Department of Homeland Security's National Center for Food Protection and Defense, said a potentially deadly bird flu pandemic is coming.
He doesn't know when or where it will land in the United States, but, he said, a serious effort should be mounted "right now" by federal, state and local agencies to prepare for it.
"If the pandemic is caused by H5N1, the avian influenza virus strain currently circulating in Asia, it could kill as many as 1.9 million Americans and infect 30 to 60 percent of the population," he said, adding that H5N1 is the most powerful influenza virus detected in modern history.
Osterholm told the approximately 150 people at Wednesday's dinner meeting in Westlake Village that H5N1 has many similarities to the H1N1 virus.
That virus killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide in 1918-19, the National Institutes of Health says on its Web site. A report on a Stanford University Web site says about 675,000 of them were Americans.
Currently, H5N1 can be passed from bird to animal to human, and the virus could evolve to a stage where it could be passed from human to human, Osterholm said.
According to the World Health Organization, bird flu has infected 247 people since 2003 and killed at least 144 of them. United Nations and Nigerian health officials suspect Nigeria may be the first country in Africa to have bird flu casualties. A search is being conducted in areas where it is known that chickens live with families.
For people who doubt the looming danger, Osterholm said, "I wouldn't bet my family's life that it's not going to happen."
Currently, there is no bird flu vaccine, he said.
"We're still using 1950s vaccine," he said. "Over the decades there has been only one major modification to it. And H5N1 vaccine research results generally have been disappointing.
"We may be years away from a modern influenza vaccine with enough production capacity for the world."
When the pandemic hits, what will it be like?
"Imagine a 12-to-18-month global blizzard," he said.
Osterholm said areas to be concerned about include worker and patient protection (from the virus), and medical devices and staffing.
Even the dead will be contagious.
"Corpse management, the handling of the dead and how we grieve, will be very important," he said.
"We will see bodies pile up right here in Ventura County. You've got to start planning, locally, now."
Individuals and families should stockpile a six- to 12-week supply of food and water in their homes, he said. Business and education areas must prepare to protect employees and students.
Planning should cover quarantine, border closings, social distancing (such as working from home instead of the office), infection control and respiratory protection, Osterholm said.
Also, the pharmaceutical industry should be encouraged to increase its medication inventory in pharmacies and other outlets.
Otherwise, monthly prescriptions will not be filled.
"There are many areas to be considered," he said.
Before Osterholm's talk, Ventura County Sheriff Bob Brooks and Ventura County Health Officer Dr. Robert Levin addressed the pandemic issue.
Brooks said his department is working with public health in planning for pandemic influenza, a smallpox outbreak, a chemical attack and a nuclear attack.
The department also participates in the Public Health Bio Medical Advisory Council and in mass evacuation planning.
It is also dealing with issues of providing security at vaccination sites; responding to public disorders because of a breakdown in the distribution of food or other critical shortage. Also, plans are being made on how to provide public services despite losing 30 percent to 40 percent of personnel to the flu virus.
Levin said a critical part of his department's planning is to tell the public things may collapse around them.
"That is where they come in," he said. "The antidote for closed grocery stores is a full pantry of dry and canned goods at home. The treatment for a power shortage is flashlights and radios that crank up or run on batteries."
Levin recommended going to an American Red Cross Web site that has information on preparing for a disaster, which is at
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