Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

AD, no one that I know of. It appears if you get the disease without siginificant medical intervention you are toast. There may be people out there who the WHO have identified as having antibodies after another familiy member became ill but, they have neither alluded to nor given specific examples.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Shannon - that is not the answer I wanted to hear!!! There must be some - maybe older people, or those with immuno-comprosed disease that protected them from ARDS.

Maybe another new question is what minimal or non-traditional medical interventions are keeping people alive. Remember the report of China shipping ascorbate with the tamiflu? Did anyone live with the use of just ascorbate? (& maybe other chinese herbal remedies)

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[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

I have not read of any thus far AD. But then they haven't been all that forth-coming about treatments either.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Shannon:

One thing that keeps nagging my subconscious, is how much information regarding viral research is coming from HIV research - just like the protease inhibitor information I just posted on Mingus little thread. They are designed to "manage" a chronic infection, but why not use them as a means of managing an H5N1 infection until our humoral immune system can launch an effective attack? We are far too narrow in our thinking. We're looking for & not finding only a superhighway scenic route. We're not considering the existing & bumpy, but successful route.

But then, who want to be the test case? (going to go find a mink and volunteer him.)

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[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Hmmm, AD, I think that is what we are doing. I will think out loud here, so to speak.
Antivirals only give your cells a limited amount of protetction from hijacking. They don't kill the virus only limit its ability enter a cell.

Adjutivants only give certain meds a way to increase either threir effectiveness or lengthen how long they stay effective in the body or in some cases both.

We cannot use immune boosting drugs as they also reinforce the viruses killing power by enabling a cytokine to take hold.

There are some drugs being tried that dampen the immune system but, either they haven't worked or I have seen no new word on thier efficacy. this idea has yet to be complely exhaused however, so cross your fingers here.

The bottom line is we don't know where else to search. (Still thinking out loud) The disease kills by raising the inflammatory response. It causes ARDS and various other hideous responses by the body. Brian invovlvement leading to lifelong damage. Afffects the digestive system in some case. Raises temps significantly. If you give aspirin or other NSAIDs that have a tendency to cause bleeding then you are helping facilitate the ARDS problem. (This is a serious drawback for a number of herbals) Pain and temp management are far tougher with these restrictions.

Sorry got a phone call in the middle of my stream of conscious thought processes.


In any case, do you know of any therapies that should be tried that aren't? I don't. The first two doctors in Hong Kontg tried everything they could think of and still lost 1/2 of thier patients. Thes is depressing

Shannon:

One thing that keeps nagging my subconscious, is how much information regarding viral research is coming from HIV research - just like the protease inhibitor information I just posted on Mingus little thread. They are designed to "manage" a chronic infection, but why not use them as a means of managing an H5N1 infection until our humoral immune system can launch an effective attack? We are far too narrow in our thinking. We're looking for & not finding only a superhighway scenic route. We're not considering the existing & bumpy, but successful route.

But then, who want to be the test case? (going to go find a mink and volunteer him.)

.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Perhaps another path is to quantify which mammals are NOT able to catch the virus.

Test them ALL - spend a week in H5N1 chicken coops - see who lives.

Then study why.

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[alemap]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Unless im reading something wrong it looks like the highest number of those who contracted the virus are also the highest in death rate. Given the facts that in many poor areas the youngest typically feed the flocks and make the most direct contact, the oldest of the youngest are generally in charge of killing slaughtering. The much oldest is generally cooking the kill. So in this sense the chart would reflect this for obviously stated reasons according to most lethal contact.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

welcome to FT alemap

That's an interesting observation. The cultural realities are something often missed by people who's lives are alway in cites.

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[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

........We cannot use immune boosting drugs .........
In any case, do you know of any therapies that should be tried that aren't? I don't. ...

As I previously posted, I believe there is value to giving substances that increase IL-10 - which has the ability to decrease the immune response - details in my previous posts.

As far as other options - where is the "cross reactive immunity" approach being used? Are protease inhibitors being used?
Have all applicable HIV treatments been tried?

I know it's been said for months ...

The disease kills by raising the inflammatory response

, but the more I read, I wouldn't automatically assume a cause and effect here. Some say there is a large immune response because of a high viral load, so if the viral can be held low, then immune enhancers may have value.

The immune response might be large, not because it was stimulated, but because IL-10 was silenced.

I believe there are too many unknowns to sit comfortably with assumptions.

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[Goju]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

AD - who is sitting comfortably?

That was not meant to have double meaning...

 

[eladdie]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Who has not updated their charts for the month of may, although the date on the graphs say may 11

fyi.

http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm

 

[KC]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

If I was a "student" like the WHO has been this semester, I would have gotten a letter grade of F for not completing the assignment and not doing homework as instructed.

The number one goal of the WHO should be the timely and accurate disimination of information, sharing of viral sequences, and sources of emerging viral and bacteriological disease.

 

[LMonty]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

I personally hope that the death toll we are seeing now- the CFR- is a function of the fact that the virus is not adapted yet to humans- and that those who catch it, do so because they somehow recieve a very high viral titer and it most likely causes cytokine storm.

In other words, its part of how youre exposed- heavy viral load, that is reflected in the CFR. Perhaps part of the story is the mechanics of ccurrent infection. That you need a significant dose into deep tissue, and that the virus replicates madly before the immune system has a chance to reduce load. That and the glimmers we are seeing that genetics may play into it.

It may be bad- but I am hoping that we are seeing the worst right now, when it comes to CFR. That it will drop dramatically when it goes pandemic- even if the virus itself doesnt attentuate much, that the mode of transmission and initial viral load will be low enough that most people will be able to mount an effective immune response. IF thats the case, then hopefully the CFR will drop dramatically.

 

[Goju]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

it has gotten worse from last year

 

[Mellie]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

I personally hope that the death toll we are seeing now- the CFR- is a function of the fact that the virus is not adapted yet to humans- and that those who catch it, do so because they somehow recieve a very high viral titer and it most likely causes cytokine storm.

In other words, its part of how youre exposed- heavy viral load, that is reflected in the CFR. Perhaps part of the story is the mechanics of current infection. That you need a significant dose into deep tissue, and that the virus replicates madly before the immune system has a chance to reduce load. That and the glimmers we are seeing that genetics may play into it.

LMonty,

I have been hoping that as well.

64% CFR is so high compared to the 2.5% or 3%? of 1918. In addition, some of those who survive (with antiviral treatment) seem to be pretty damaged.

(For those who don't know, CFR is Case Fatality Rate or the percentage of those infected who then die.)

 

[Goju]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Lets call it like it is folks - if these survivors had not been in the hospital, we would be looking at a deathrate of possibly 100%!

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

........ I am hoping that we are seeing the worst right now, when it comes to CFR. That it will drop dramatically when it goes pandemic- even if the virus itself doesnt attentuate much, that the mode of transmission and initial viral load will be low enough that most people will be able to mount an effective immune response. .......

I believe the drop in CFR after efficient H2H is due to the selective advantage to not killing its host. (Someone correct me if I don't have this correct) This may not be the case here, as it can persist while still killing its host since it is a heavy early shedder.

Where is a study showing how this "mode of transmission" can keep a viral load low?

Since the position 92@NS1 mutation inactivates the immune cytokines, the viral load would need to be extremely low for an effective immune response. I'd love to see a study comparing prescribed antivirals to alternative antivirals (like the Sambucol trials in Britain).

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[golgicomplex]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Let's not be too hasty with our dire predictions just yet. A thread like this attracts many doomsday posts.

The small sample is not representative of how this clade may affect the entire population. For one thing it is still not easily transmissible h2h and will have to undergo further changes that MAY affect is morbidity/mortality. And we have no idea if this Indonesian cluster had some familial predilection to h5n1. If it doesn't spread beyond the family then that might well be the case.

Having said that, I'm still prepping !

 

[Goju]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Unfortunately, it is the doomsday scenario that complies is to begin prepping, no?

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

.........will have to undergo further changes that MAY affect is morbidity/mortality. And we have no idea if this Indonesian cluster had some familial predilection to h5n1. .......

What precisely are the further changes that affect it's morbidity/mortality that would give us reason to reduce any dire predictions? I find the current CFR pretty dire. I've been looking for some time for detailed information as to what will cause this virus to attenuate after efficient H2H. I would be very pleased to hear your explanation.

I won't wait until after it has affected the entire population to analyze the situation.

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