Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

[eladdie]

Anyone want to see Who's analysis of deaths by age?

The following graph, found on a WHO web site, is probably why the powers that be are petrified of speaking to the public.

What government official wants to be the one to tell everybody that if you are young or have children, you are going to die.

http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

I wonder why they didn't include the cases from Turkey.

 

[eladdie]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

The data is getting worse, both from the prognosis, as well as literally.


The bottom line is that the latest clade looks to have a CFR reaching 75%.

Criminals.

 

[eladdie]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

And if you want to look at 2006 year to date.

Total deaths so far this year have almost surpased all of 2005 deaths.

http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Tables.htm

2005 cases- 95 deaths-41
2006 cases - 61 deaths-37

CFR for 2006 = 37/61 = 61%

Remove Turkey from the 2006 CFR calculations (12 cases 4 deaths) and you get a CFR of 33/49 = 67% or 2/3 rds of all people who get it die.

Remove those cases for anyone over 40 years old, and it's worse. If you are younger than 39 and get it you probably have a 75% chance of dying.

Bush should be speaking to this.

WE should have this in every post on this site!

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

CFR for 2006 = 37/61 = 61%

Remove Turkey from the 2006 CFR calculations (12 cases 4 deaths) and you get a CFR of 33/49 = 67% or 2/3 rds of all people who get it die.

Remove those cases for anyone over 40 years old, and it's worse. If you are younger than 39 and get it you probably have a 75% chance of dying.

Isn't it actually much, much worse?
These CFR numbers include treatment in hospitals and treatment with Tamiflu and the availability of ventilators. Is that correct?
If yes, then what is the true CFR when unaided by anything other than home care?
Anyone here want to speculate on that?

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

i'll take a stab at that one Gaudia. If you don't hie thyself to a hospital within the first 24 hours you can kiss your ass goodbye. The only people who survive are those who have an inkling they have the disease or, they have a familiy member whowas diagnosed first (and died) so they were treated prophalactically. The CFR will approach 100% if the beast doesn't mutate to a milder strain when it goes h2h.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

........or, they have a familiy member whowas diagnosed first (and died) so they were treated prophalactically. The CFR will approach 100% if the beast doesn't mutate to a milder strain when it goes h2h.

Judging by what the new reserch is saying about transmission being higher among blood relatives, it may be best NOT to be treated by a family member.

Sadly, this disease may have a CFR that will be beyond people's imagination....god, I hope not.

Do you get the feeling mother nature has decided the human race doesn't belong here anymore?

Thank God we've learned a few things to increase our chances of survival & personnally I can be happy in a simpler world, but the thought of loosing my children is what I can bear - they're both in their 20s.

Thankfully we have something like this forum to get the word out to people about what they can do - prep and natural substances. There will be more survivors because of our efforts. I hope it will bring us some comfort in the future.

.

 

[eladdie]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Isn't it actually much, much worse?
These CFR numbers include treatment in hospitals and treatment with Tamiflu and the availability of ventilators. Is that correct?
If yes, then what is the true CFR when unaided by anything other than home care?
Anyone here want to speculate on that?

It's hard to imagine something much much worse than 75%.

Maybe marginally worse because anything past 75% is probably equally bad, unless CFR hits 100%, then we don't care do we?

Actually, one of my first threads I started at CE was a tipping point discussion.

For example

1. what CFR % causes a tipping point of society collapse?
2. what CFR % causes a worst case scenario of more deaths from collapsing society collateral damage than from dying from bird flu?
3. what CFR % causes the damage from society collapse from to begin decreasing again?
4. what CFR% causes mankind going extinct?

My answers:
5%
15%
55%
95%

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

eladdie a slight miscommunication here. I meant that once a relative was diagnosed and subsequently died, the docs treated you just before or right after your symptoms reared their ugly heads.

Judging by what the new reserch is saying about transmission being higher among blood relatives, it may be best NOT to be treated by a family member.

Sadly, this disease may have a CFR that will be beyond people's imagination....god, I hope not.

Do you get the feeling mother nature has decided the human race doesn't belong here anymore?

Thank God we've learned a few things to increase our chances of survival & personnally I can be happy in a simpler world, but the thought of loosing my children is what I can bear - they're both in their 20s.

Thankfully we have something like this forum to get the word out to people about what they can do - prep and natural substances. There will be more survivors because of our efforts. I hope it will bring us some comfort in the future.

.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

This entire CFR discussion is surreal.

There will be survivors--
The virus does not impact significantly on older people.
The passage of time will result in herd immunity:
vaccination,
natural immunity,
acquired immunity through illness

Would you speculate on who will (probably...higher probability than most) survive, what age category they'll be in, what percentage of the population they represent?

IMO, this will be quite fascinating info, and quite possibly motivational.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

You and I, Ray - and GWB. We'll have a party. WE can all bring George a momento of our appreciation for his years of leadership.

(folks - the 3 of us are just months apart)

I think us old folks will be caring for the very young - and running everything. Kids will be employed at MUCH younger ages. There will be NO retirement....they will need our labor.

Baby boomers will be ruling the world (without a demonstration).

Young women will not be enouraged to practice birth control (unless we learn something from experience).

Labor saving devices will be the norm - not out of laziness, but because really old folks will be doing hard labor & it will be imiportant that they not be injured.

Hopefully - some wise old people will write a book.

Nobody will every hide sequences again.

.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

You and I, Ray - and GWB. We'll have a party. WE can all bring George a momento of our appreciation for his years of leadership.

(folks - the 3 of us are just months apart)

I think us old folks will be caring for the very young - and running everything. Kids will be employed at MUCH younger ages. There will be NO retirement....they will need our labor.

Baby boomers will be ruling the world (without a demonstration).

Young women will not be enouraged to practice birth control (unless we learn something from experience).

Labor saving devices will be the norm - not out of laziness, but because really old folks will be doing hard labor & it will be imiportant that they not be injured.

Hopefully - some wise old people will write a book.

Nobody will every hide sequences again.

.

In spite of my potential good fortune, being "gramps", a most insulting term used by my ex gal pal who's totally indifferent, and who has two kids both in their early 20's (you know what I think about that attitude and behavior, yet I know it to be common), I believe we have an opportunity to serve ourselves by thinking about post-pandemia, about what the world will look like, and who's in it.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

.....I believe we have an opportunity to serve ourselves by thinking about post-pandemia, about what the world will look like, and who's in it.

It really boils down to that CFR again - that will define it. And possible major social/political changes. We'd need several scenerios.

Maybe it could be expressed as a "back in time" factor, i.e., how far back in our economic, social, or political evolution would the post-pandemic be similar to?

CFR<5% = 50 years, CFR<10% = 75 years, CFR<25% + 100 years, CFR - 50% = 150 years, etc., etc.

Just as a "tool for thought."

What might other illustrative tools, accomodating wide variation, can we utilize?

.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Your concept is pregnant...

It will drive us back to a time before the steam engine.
We will be driven back to the time power came from a water wheel by the side of a creek.
Vast areas of irrigated farmland will be lost. Only if the population shrinks dramatically will we be able to avoid starvation due to lack of food production in the fields themselves.
Almost all fruits will disappear as they almost all depend on electricity driven pumps.
Electricity will be a thing of the past!!

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Your concept is pregnant...

It will drive us back to a time before the steam engine.
We will be driven back to the time power came from a water wheel by the side of a creek.
Vast areas of irrigated farmland will be lost. Only if the population shrinks dramatically will we be able to avoid starvation due to lack of food production in the fields themselves.
Almost all fruits will disappear as they almost all depend on electricity driven pumps.
Electricity will be a thing of the past!!

But that means our answers are in the history books.

There are many societies today who do Ag without electric.

The Amish will be teaching us how to live.

We've lost touch with our roots. Ever since Abraham left Ur, people have been growing by stretching their imagination, having courage to change, & control their destiny. It's part of what has made many great civilzations - without it they fail.

.

 

[KC]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Regarding viruses and people:

... have been growing by stretching their imagination, having courage to change, & control their destiny. It's part of what has made many great civilzations - without it they fail.
.

Humans and viruses seem to have similiar traits.

Battle on..... human vs. virus.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

I have a slightly different interpretation of the fatality stats. More young people catch the disease as it stands now, but all of those over the age of 50 who caught it died. When/if this does change to a virus that can live in the upper respiratory tract, then we along with the young will also catch it in all likelihood. And if then the virus still maintains its ability to cause a cytokine storm, we too are toast. ****ed if we do and ****ed if we don't.

 

[Goju]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

So let me get this straight.....

It is the cytokine storm which kills you. It is caused by a very strong immune system response to the H5N1 in the body. The stronger the immune system, the stronger the response resulting in a cytokine storm and death.

Young people tend to have stronger immune systems than older people do. Therefore they experience the cytokine storm more often than older people would.

Perhaps the key to preventing deaths then is paradoxically lowering the immune system response.

So... don't exercise, don't sleep too much, eat total junk food, think horrible thoughts, don't sing or dance, don't be nice to anyone..... and you'll have nothing to worry about!



I asked my doctor about drugs to lower the immune system response... she nearly freaked... told me we were talking chemotherapy for cancer patients.

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Yes, it is the cytokine storm that kills you. Or in some cases pneumonia following the flu. (Although I am not clear of whether those pneumonia cases are secondary infections or poor communication of cytokine storms) So why do I think that the old will also be vulnerable? Because so far we haven't seen any mild cases in anyone, old or young. If you get it regardless of age you are in big trouble. When we noticed the significant drop in victims who were born after 1968 the thought was these people had some sort of built in immunity. But, it now appears that none of the familimy members tested so far have shown later immunity. If they were exposed and fought off the disease then they should have had the evidence in thier antibodies. So we are back to square one. If you get it, you better have a hospital nearby who is capable of treating you with a whole panoply of support systems and antivirals.

Lord I hope I'm wrong.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Young people die - WHO Rated XXX (only mature audiences allowed to look)

Rather than asking what age is dying...... the question should be who is living - without medical interventions? Anyone???

.