WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

[mixin]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

The conservation groups test cloacal swabs (or 350,000 fecal samples), which are negative for clade 2.2. As was seen in experimaental infections, isolation of H5N1 from experimentally infected birds is limited to 24 hours. Testing of a few hundred live birds (and far fewer dead or dying birds) is a joke (as was clearly demonstrated in Mongolia in teh summer of 2005 when these groups failed to detect H5N1 in live birds at Erhel Lake, where H5N1 infected dead birds were reported).

This is a propaganda exercise. This wild bird issue was settled in 2005.

Actually, my post was in response to your claim that

no testing was being done in Bangladesh, Tibet, or India.

Obviously, there is testing being done.

Maybe what we need instead of conservation groups, vets, universities, NAMRUs, etc, doing the testing is for molecular biologists worldwide to volunteer to go out and catch/test the wild birds.

In all seriousness, I hear what you say: bad tests, bad testers, bad samples, bad handling, bad timing, too few numbers, conspiracy, propaganda... and I just can't help but think: "Maybe hpH5N1 is not being found in the numbers that Niman expects because it just isn't there in those numbers."

I acknowledge there may come a time when I publicly admit you are right:tiphat:

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

only one sequence from 2007 or later at genbank and that matches
VNM/1203/2004.

India 2006 was closest to H5N1 from Italy,Krasnodar,Iran

Please, the 2007 isolate labeled India was an escape mutant and has nothing to do with H5N1 in India (or anywhere other than clade 1 in southeast Asia).

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

Actually, my post was in response to your claim that Obviously, there is testing being done.

Maybe what we need instead of conservation groups, vets, universities, NAMRUs, etc, doing the testing is for molecular biologists worldwide to volunteer to go out and catch/test the wild birds.

In all seriousness, I hear what you say: bad tests, bad testers, bad samples, bad handling, bad timing, too few numbers, conspiracy, propaganda... and I just can't help but think: "Maybe hpH5N1 is not being found in the numbers that Niman expects because it just isn't there in those numbers."

I acknowledge there may come a time when I publicly admit you are right:tiphat:

The data on long range transport and transmission by wild birds has been quite clear since 2005. ALL H5N1 isolates from wild birds, poultry, and humans west of China are the Qinghai strain and NONE of these countries had H5N1 prior to Qinghai Lake in 2005. Newer versions of the Qinghai strain have subsequently emerged, but all are clade 2.2 subclades. The data (and false negatives by conservation groups) could not be clearer (no conspiracies required).

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

only one sequence from 2007 or later at genbank and that matches
VNM/1203/2004.

India 2006 was closest to H5N1 from Italy,Krasnodar,Iran

For those who could use a quick review to understand why the above is nonsense:

The Qinghai strain of H5N1 was first reported in May, 2005 at Qinghai Lake. This 2.2 subclade was easily distinguished from Clade 1 in southeast Asia, Clade 2.1 in Indonesia, and Clade 2.3 in China. These clades are defined by phylogenetic analysis and are the "industry standard" and are of most interest because all have been linked to human infections (there are other clades which are in Asia, but they are distinct and have not been linked to human cases).

Clade 2.2 was subsequnetly found in Russia and Mongolia in the summer of 2005 and the linkage to wild birds was acknowledged in OIE reports from the affected countries. Prior to the spring of 2005, none of these areas hads previously reported H5N1.

The spread of H5N1 to wild birds at these nature reserves (Qinghai Lake in China, Chany Lake in Russia, and Erhel Lake in Mongolia) lead to the prediction that H5N1 would subsequnetly spread to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa based on migration patterns and this prediction was confirmed in the 2005/2006 season, where H5N1 spread to over 50 countries. None of the countries had reported H5N1 previously (and all isolates from wild birds, poultry, or humans were clade 2.2).

The large number of clade 2.2 led to classification of additional subclades. Those in south Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan) as well as regions adjacent to the Caspian sea (Iran, Azerbaijan, southwestern Russia) where all clade 2.2.3 (as well as an isolate from Italy). Other H5N1 in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were clade 2.2.1 and 2.2.2. However, ALL were subclades of 2.2 (the Qinghai strain).

There have been public 2006 H5N1 sequences from India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran and all were clade 2.2.3. There have also been 2007 sequences from Pakistan, which was also clade 2.2.3.

There have been no 2007 or 2008 sequences from Afghanistan, India, or Bangladesh. The 2007 sequence labeled India was created in a lab in India and has nothing to do with H5N1 in poultry, wild birds, or people in India or any other country in south Asia.

 

[gsgs]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

I assume the virus in India,2006 didn't come over the Himalaya
but rather from the Sibirian wetlands and birds flying south,
bringing similar viruses to Iran,Afghanistan,Pakistan and even Italy.
Human transmission through traffic may also have been involved.

Now, 2007/8 may be different. India is big and this time it's
in the east, near Bangladesh.
The sequences should show it...Were there any statements yet,
which other sequences are similar to India/07 ?

I think we should consider all segments, when available.
The clades often only refer to HA (varies by author)
which is only 1700 out of 13000 nucleotide-positions
with the potential for mutation. Mutation in HA is also
often biased by immunity-escapes and not so suitable to
track the spread.

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

I assume the virus in India,2006 didn't come over the Himalaya
but rather from the Sibirian wetlands and birds flying south,
bringing similar viruses to Iran,Afghanistan,Pakistan and even Italy.
Human transmission through traffic may also have been involved.

Now, 2007/8 may be different. India is big and this time it's
in the east, near Bangladesh.
The sequences should show it...Were there any statements yet,
which other sequences are similar to India/07 ?

I think we should consider all segments, when available.
The clades often only refer to HA (varies by author)
which is only 1700 out of 13000 nucleotide-positions
with the potential for mutation. Mutation in HA is also
often biased by immunity-escapes and not so suitable to
track the spread.

Nonsense.

The clade 2.2 sequences are EASILY distinguished in ALL eight gene sgements and in fact can generally be classified by just looking at the HA cleavage site, which is GERRRKKR (or a close variation - there are a few exceptions, such as recent isolates in Egypt which have RERRRKKR but are clearly clade 2.2).

The fact that the phylogenetic analysis of H5N1 in Bangladesh implicated wild birds clearly indicates it was clade 2.2.

You continue to post nonsense.

 

[gsgs]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

can we have a link for phylogenetic analysis of H5N1 in Bangladesh ?
I haven't seen any sequences.

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

I assume the virus in India,2006 didn't come over the Himalaya
but rather from the Sibirian wetlands and birds flying south,
bringing similar viruses to Iran,Afghanistan,Pakistan and even Italy.
Human transmission through traffic may also have been involved.

There is NO basis for such an assumption. India is clearly linked to China, Russia, and Mongolia via the Central Asia Flyway.

Human traffic is just hand waving.

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

can we have a link for phylogenetic analysis of H5N1 in Bangladesh ?
I haven't seen any sequences.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07070801/H5N1_Bangladesh_Migration.html

 

[gsgs]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

> Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), Bangladesh
> Agriculture University, Chittagong Veterinary University,
> Department of Livestock Service and Food and Agricultural
> Organisation (FAO) jointly conducted the study from February
> to June this year.
> The study involved phylogenetic, epidemiological and
> socio-economic analysis.

I found nothing with google about that study, no hint about the
phylogenetic relationship of the Bangladesh sequences.
Maybe it's published later...

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

> Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), Bangladesh
> Agriculture University, Chittagong Veterinary University,
> Department of Livestock Service and Food and Agricultural
> Organisation (FAO) jointly conducted the study from February
> to June this year.
> The study involved phylogenetic, epidemiological and
> socio-economic analysis.

I found nothing with google about that study, no hint about the
phylogenetic relationship of the Bangladesh sequences.
Maybe it's published later...

Phylogenetic = wild birds = clade 2.2 = Qinghai
It doesn't get any clearer.

Migratory birds are mainly responsible for the outbreak of avian influenza (AI) or bird flu in the country, according to a study report.

The report said that migratory birds might be responsible for initial introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), Bangladesh Agriculture University, Chittagong Veterinary University, Department of Livestock Service and Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) jointly conducted the study from February to June this year.

The study involved phylogenetic, epidemiological and socio-economic analysis.

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

> Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), Bangladesh
> Agriculture University, Chittagong Veterinary University,
> Department of Livestock Service and Food and Agricultural
> Organisation (FAO) jointly conducted the study from February
> to June this year.
> The study involved phylogenetic, epidemiological and
> socio-economic analysis.

I found nothing with google about that study, no hint about the
phylogenetic relationship of the Bangladesh sequences.
Maybe it's published later...

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01290804/H5N1_WB_Uva_Lake.html

H5N1 Sequences in West Bengal Similar to Uva Lake

Recombinomics Commentary 16:58
January 29, 2008

Health Secretary Naresh Dayal said the virus detected in West Bengal was somewhat similar to those found in Maharashtra in 2006, but not like those found from Manipur.

'We want to trace its origin,' Dayal too said, adding that migratory birds could not be wished away as the source of the outbreak in West Bengal.

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

> Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), Bangladesh
> Agriculture University, Chittagong Veterinary University,
> Department of Livestock Service and Food and Agricultural
> Organisation (FAO) jointly conducted the study from February
> to June this year.
> The study involved phylogenetic, epidemiological and
> socio-economic analysis.

I found nothing with google about that study, no hint about the
phylogenetic relationship of the Bangladesh sequences.
Maybe it's published later...

Scientists from the National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, who have completed gene sequencing of the H5N1 virus isolated from West Bengal, have told the Union health ministry in an official report submitted on Tuesday, that the virus is the highly virulent Asian strain similar to the one circulating in Pakistan and Afghanistan.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/..._that_hit_Maharashtra/articleshow/2741922.cms

 

[gsgs]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

OK, I summarized it here:
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/posting.php?mode=quote&p=129591


so, none of the 3 outbreaks in India can be traced to the
flyway from China in post 7

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

OK, I summarized it here:
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/posting.php?mode=quote&p=129591


so, none of the 3 outbreaks in India can be traced to the
flyway from China in post 7

Please. ALL H5N1 found on that flyway is Qinghai including the Uvs Lake strain (in Mongolia) which is clade 2.2.3.

You continue to post nonsense. Clade 2.2 = MIGRATORY BIRDS (which link together via intersecting flyways).

Uvs Lake is at the top of the path (just to the west) in post #7 (and the Ganges Delta is at the bottom)

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=167530&postcount=7

 

[gsgs]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

birds flying from China over the Himalaya to Bangladesh won't create
the same polymorphisms as (distant) birds flying through
Sibiria,Iran,Afghanistan

[can we discuss the nonsense-issue in another room ? thanks.]

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

birds flying from China over the Himalaya to Bangladesh won't create
the same polymorphisms as (distant) birds flying through
Sibiria,Iran,Afghanistan

[can we discuss the nonsense-issue in another room ? thanks.]

Nonsense. Clade 2.2.3 is in Uva Lake in Mongolia where the path originates.

You continue to post nonsense (on this thread).

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

birds flying from China over the Himalaya to Bangladesh won't create
the same polymorphisms as (distant) birds flying through
Sibiria,Iran,Afghanistan

[can we discuss the nonsense-issue in another room ? thanks.]

I think you have a FUNDAMENTAL misunderstanding of how H5N1 evolves or spreads via migratory birds. The birds fly back north in the summer and the major locations in the north are wild bird reserves which are within intersecting flyways. H5N1 passes easily from one wild bird species to another, so it can branch out in multiple directions in the fall.

In early 2006 clade 2.2.3 (which is a subclade of clade 2.2) was largely limited to south Asia and countries adjacent to the Caspian sea. However, almost exactly two years ago, in the summer of 2006 there was another massive wild bird H5N1 outbreak at Uvs Lake (in Mongolai and adjacent Tyva in Siberia), which is the largest lake in Mongolia and is just to the west of the pathway in post #7.

The Uvs Lake strain was 2.2.3, but had a few additional chnages which distinguished the Uvs Lake clade 2.2.3 sequences from those reported earlier in the year. The Uvs Lake strain was next reported in South Korea / Japan in late 2006 / early 2007. In addition to branching out to the east, it also flew west and appeared in Kuwait in early 2007. It is unclear what H5N1 appeared in Bangladesh in early 2007, but it could have also been the Uvs Lake strain.

The Uvs Lake strain was next reported in Germany, the Czech Republic, and France in the summer of 2007, and was then reported throughout Europe in the fall of 2007 / early 2008 as well as Saudia Arabia in early 2008.

Thus, by early 2008 the Uvs Lake clade 2.2.3 had been reported in South Korea / Japan, the Middle East, and most of Europe.

Thus, there is no reason to assume that the clade 2.2.3 in Bangladesh and West Bengal in early 2008 was not the Uvs Lake strain of clade 2.2.3 or that it did not fly in from the north, from Mongolia or China.

 

[gsgs]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

take A/India/NIV33491/2006(H5N1) presumably from February 2006,
Maharashtra


It belongs to a group "Iran" of >=6 viruses
Azerbaijan/008-208/06
WSw/Iran/754/06
Ck/Krasnodar/123/06
MSw/Italy/742/06
Ck/India/NIV33491/06

characterized by 3 markers in PB2 and 4 markers in PB1 (and some others)
[---edit1---: PB2:A377G,G1012A,G1074A-PB1:G540A,C1014T,T1197C,A1383C-
NA:A516C (enumerating the coding region, starts with ATG...)]

which are different from original Qinghai but not found in other Qinghai H5N1.
They are also found 1 year later in the Rostov/Moscow viruses but those
have acquired additional mutations in the 1 year, so I leave them out here.

This Iran-Rostov group has formed (had a bottleneck) in fall 2005, the common origin
with Tyva/Uvs could be around April 2005. So the India virus would have split from the
Uvs virus probably before the Qinghai-lake event.


The 2nd outbreak is Indonesia-like, so not Qinghai.

The 3rd outbreak is "similar to the 1st", but we don't know how much
similar. Maybe they just mean Qinghai-strain.
Or so similar, that it could be a descendant.

 

[HenryN]

Re: WTB says migratory birds not to be blamed for spread of bird flu in the country

take A/India/NIV33491/2006(H5N1) presumably from February 2006,
Maharashtra


It belongs to a group "Iran" of >=6 viruses
Azerbaijan/008-208/06
WSw/Iran/754/06
Ck/Krasnodar/123/06
MSw/Italy/742/06
Ck/India/NIV33491/06

characterized by 3 markers in PB2 and 4 markers in PB1 (and some others)
which are different from original Qinghai but not found in other Qinghai H5N1.
They are also found 1 year later in the Rostov/Moscow viruses but those
have acquired additional mutations in the 1 year, so I leave them out here.

This Iran-Rostov group has formed (had a bottleneck) in fall 2005, the common origin
with Tyva/Uvs could be around April 2005. So the India virus would have split from the
Uvs virus probably before the Qinghai-lake event.


The 2nd outbreak is Indonesia-like, so not Qinghai.

The 3rd outbreak is "similar to the 1st", but we don't know how much
similar. Maybe they just mean Qinghai-strain.
Or so similar, that it could be a descendant.

Please. No "new" names required. Its clade 2.2.3 based on HA sequences. No hocus pocus required.