"Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS

[Theresa42]

"Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS
Tue May 2, 2:26 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Many companies are underestimating just how bad a bird flu epidemic could be, said Risk Management Solutions, which provides catastrophe risk management services.

The Newark, California risk modeler said many studies were using the 1918 influenza epidemic as their worst case scenario. That had a mortality of 0.67 percent in the United States-- or about 700,000 of the 105 million people who lived then. A similar epidemic now would kill just under two million.

An analysis of virology shows that more severe pandemics are possible and there is a one-in-five chance of a pandemic more severe than 1918, RMS said.

A new RMS study quantifies not only the severity of a pandemic, but also the likelihood of it occurring, and such factors as infectiousness and lethality of the pandemic, demographic impact, country of outbreak, vaccine production and countermeasures.

"Pandemic influenza could potentially deal insurers a triple whammy, causing unprecedented life and health claims losses, investment portfolio downturns and reduced staff through the spreading of sickness among company personnel," said Dr. Andrew Coburn, RMS project lead on influenza pandemic risk modeling.

He said such a pandemic could last two to three years, making it essential for insurers to put in place a multi-year risk management strategy that considers the possibility that reinsurance would not be able to cover all the losses.

RMS will present its new model at a seminar on June 1 in New York City.

To date, there have not been any cases of transmission of the virus from person to person. Human cases have been contracted through contact with birds.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060502...xQWIr0F;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Risk Management Solutions:
http://www.rms.com/

http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/Risk&Insurance_Avian2.pdf

 

[Theresa42]

Re: "Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS

I just have to post this link again so no one misses it. Take a look at RMS's "Model Apocalypse" (well done!):

http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/Risk&Insurance_Avian2.pdf

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: "Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS

Rarely do I disagree with Theresa. I do now.

This self promoting RMS plan, for the illuminati here, is bull****.

They say they are great discoverers of modeling ideas. That's unsupported and refuted by their statements.

They do not recognize recombination. Dump every idea thereafter.

They unveil what is already known as if it's a surprise movie, like watching Flight 93, as if we don't know what will happen. They discount panic. They think that the shutdown of the NYSE really will mean something. Hellooo... this is the 21st Century...ever hear of NASDAQ? And 3rd markets and international markets?

These guys gathered a bunch of facts, and then parade forward as if they know what they're talking about. It's yet another shyster attempt to grab some of the money being spent on prep plans.

Guys in charge of your company budgets, go ask microbix.com who have no vested interest what they suggest and who's out there. At least get in contact with knowledgeable people.

 

[KC]

Re: "Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS

See Below.

 

[Theresa42]

Re: "Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS

They think that the shutdown of the NYSE really will mean something. Hellooo... this is the 21st Century...ever hear of NASDAQ? And 3rd markets and international markets?

These guys gathered a bunch of facts, and then parade forward as if they know what they're talking about. It's yet another shyster attempt to grab some of the money being spent on prep plans.

Guys in charge of your company budgets, go ask microbix.com who have no vested interest what they suggest and who's out there. At least get in contact with knowledgeable people.

Well, what I mainly appreciated about what these RMS guys had to say was that a pandemic could be worse than the good ol' 1918 scenario. THANK you! I dunno where they got the 20% probability of such a scenario occurring, though -- did wonder about that when I read the press release.

GR - I'm not sure what you're saying here about NASDAQ and all the other markets besides the NYSE? Are you saying that RMS have overlooked the possibility/likelihood that these will fail, too? Or are you saying that they are less likely to fail? I can't believe you're suggesting that, but it wasn't clear from what you said here....

Hey -- everybody's got a vested interest. Which why it's so hard (impossible!) to find unbiased info out there. Microbix? On their landing page it says their business is "Biotechnologies for Healthcare and Industry." I dunno what their opinion on how severe a pandemic could be is, but I bet it's not a pretty one. (Also, their "Global Outbreak Status Hot Link" goes to the WHO's avian influenza pages.... No comment. )