World experts debate case for new bird flu vaccine

[tetano]

LONDON - Experts from around the world are in daily talks about the threat posed by a deadly new strain of bird flu in China, including discussions on if and when to start making a vaccine.

Any decision to mass-produce vaccines against H7N9 flu will not be taken lightly, since it will mean sacrificing production of seasonal shots. And scientists warn it will take months to get any finished bird flu vaccine to the market.

But the groundwork is being laid.

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http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/201...rts-debate-case-for-new-bird-flu-vaccine?lite

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: World experts debate case for new bird flu vaccine

So many unknowns exist about this novel influenza A (H7N9) that is almost impossible so far to make predictions.

For example:

-- What is the true case fatality rate?

-- What is the attack rate (R0)?

-- What is the level of cross protective immunity present in the population - if any (this is most true for some regions where H5/H7/H9 viruses are widely circulating in poultry)?

-- Are NAI drugs able to reduce the severity on illness or change the clinical course toward a better outcome?

-- Are other supportive treatments / ICU / antibiotics able to rescue severe diseased patients, controlling multi organ failures, bacterial superinfection?

-- What is the histopathological changes and the clinical course in infected patients?

-- Are some classes of ages most at risk than Others?

--- etc.

Starting the procedure for producing a new monovalent vaccine may be useful but may be extremely urgent if some of the above questions should results in a picture pointing toward a severe pandemic.

Anyway, for the first pandemic wave, no vaccine will be available - even though strict quarantine measures will be implemented at global level.

Another big question regards the person-to-person transmissibility of this virus: if the virus is already in the community spread than only quarantine would remain to authorities to attempt to slow the pace of new infections and thus gain some time for medical countermeasures.

If - instead - the virus needs more time to adapt for a sustained community transmission perhaps the vaccine may be more useful.

GM