World Bank warns of 'catastrophic' economic impact from Ebola

[Nika]

World Bank warns of 'catastrophic' economic impact from Ebola

Washington (AFP) - The World Bank warned Wednesday that the deadly Ebola epidemic could be an unmitigated disaster for West African economies, and called for quick action to halt its spread.

"If the virus continues to surge in the three worst-affected countries -- Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone -- its economic impact could grow eight-fold, dealing a potentially catastrophic blow to the already fragile states," the World Bank said.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/25031889/world-bank-warns-of-catastrophic-economic-impact-from-ebola/

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: World Bank warns of 'catastrophic' economic impact from Ebola

snip

The World Bank Group is mobilizing a $230 million financing package for the three countries hardest hit by the Ebola crisis, which will help contain the spread of infections, help communities cope with the economic impact of the crisis, and improve public health systems throughout West Africa.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...-countries-international-community-world-bank

 

[Nika]

Re: World Bank warns of 'catastrophic' economic impact from Ebola

World Bank sees possible Ebola hit in billions of dollars

.....

"The global development lender predicted that slow containment of the deadly virus in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone could lead to broader regional contagion, particularly through tourism and trade.

Under the worst-case scenario, Guinea's economic growth could be reduced by 2.3 percentage points next year while Sierra Leona's growth would be cut by 8.9 percentage points. Liberia would be hardest hit, with a reduction of 11.7 percentage points next year."

..... more ....

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0HC1I420140917?irpc=932

 

[JJackson]

Re: World Bank warns of 'catastrophic' economic impact from Ebola

While looking for information on how they are defining Low and High Ebola this seems the limit of the explanation. It is not at all clear what kind of case counts are being anticipated under each scenario.

Scenarios of the Ebola Epidemic
In late August 2014, the World Health Organization proposed that “the aggregate case load of EVD
[Ebola Virus Disease] could exceed 20,000 over the course of this emergency.”
Since then, other projections have suggested a much larger potential caseload and – importantly – a longer epidemic.
As such, this note examines two scenarios. First, a rapid containment scenario (called Low Ebola) is
considered, which assumes that containment of the disease by roughly the end of 2014 leads to a
resumption of economic activity in 2015. Second, a slow containment scenario (High Ebola) assumes
that the outbreak worsens significantly into 2015.

The report can be found here and is interesting in seeing where the largest impacts are likely to fall (by sector and nation) but without a bit more data on their modelling assumptions it is tricky to know how realistic is against various credible scenarios of what is going to happen next.
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/extern...d/PDF/907480WP0Econo00201400901700PUBLIC0.pdf

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: World Bank warns of 'catastrophic' economic impact from Ebola

While looking for information on how they are defining Low and High Ebola this seems the limit of the explanation. It is not at all clear what kind of case counts are being anticipated under each scenario.
The report can be found here and is interesting in seeing where the largest impacts are likely to fall (by sector and nation) but without a bit more data on their modelling assumptions it is tricky to know how realistic is against various credible scenarios of what is going to happen next.

Based on my reading the World Bank article, the authors are not are trying to develop an epidemiological model of the Ebola outbreak. They have proposed economic outcomes for two different time-based scenarios of outbreak containment. The first scenario (Low Ebola) is that the outbreak is contained by December 31, 2014. The second, and probably more accurate, scenario (High Ebola) is that the outbreak will not be contained until sometime in 2015 with greater economic consequences. By dichotomizing scenarios based on time-to-containment (rapid versus slow), the authors avoid getting caught in "projecting the case count" trap.