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WHO Predicts Exposion (of H1N1)

Treyfish

Moderator


Friday, 21 Aug, 2009 | 02:34 PM PST |


BEIJING: The global spread of swine flu will endanger more lives as it speeds up in coming months and governments must boost preparations for a swift response, the World Health Organization said Friday.
There will soon be a period of further global spread of the virus, and most countries may see swine flu cases double every three to four days for several months until peak transmission is reached, said WHO’s Western Pacific director, Shin Young-soo.
At a certain point, there will seem to be an explosion in case numbers,’ Shin told a symposium of health officials and experts in Beijing. ‘It is certain there will be more cases and more deaths.
WHO has declared the swine flu strain a pandemic, and it has killed almost 1,800 people worldwide through last week. International attention has focused on how the pandemic is progressing in southern hemisphere countries such as Australia, which are experiencing winter and their flu season.
But it is in developing countries where the accelerated spread of swine flu poses the greatest threat as it places underequipped and underfunded health systems under severe strain, Shin said.
Governments must act quickly to educate the public, prepare their health systems to care for severe cases and protect those deemed more vulnerable to prevent unnecessary deaths, he said.
We only have a short time period to reach the state of preparedness deemed necessary,’ Shin said. ‘Communities must be aware before a pandemic strikes as to what they can do to reduce the spread of the virus, and how to obtain early treatment of severe cases.’
Pregnant women face a higher risk of complications, and the virus also has more severe effects on people with underlying medical conditions such as asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders and diabetes, WHO chief Margaret Chan said in a video address.
WHO earlier estimated that as many as two billion people could become infected over the next two years — nearly one-third of the world’s population.
Health officials and drug makers, meanwhile, are looking into ways to speed up production of a vaccine before the northern hemisphere enters its flu season in coming months. Estimates for when a vaccine will be available range from September to December.
WHO has stressed that most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities, especially in poorer countries.
The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about one million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.
Swine flu is also continuing to spread during summer in the northern hemisphere. Normally, flu viruses disappear with warm weather, but swine flu is proving to be resilient. — AP:tiphat:http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...osion-of-swine-flu-cases-imminent-who--szh-09
 
Re: Explosion? of swine flu cases imminent: WHO

Re: Explosion? of swine flu cases imminent: WHO

WHO warns govts of second swine flu wave<TABLE dir=rtl border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=512 height=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=left> Friday, 21 August 2009

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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>About 1,800 people have died from the virus so far


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Preparations for 2nd and 3rd waves</PTITLE>


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Northern hemisphere</PTITLE>


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Double doses needed</PTITLE>


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WHO chief Margaret Chan gives a speech during the annual United Nations Economic and Social Council meeting (File)


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BEIJING (AFP)
<MAINBODY xmlns="">World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan on Friday urged governments to prepare for a likely second wave of swine flu cases, cautioning they will face tough decisions on how to dispense vaccines.

Chan's statement came as more than two dozen pharmaceutical companies around the world scramble to produce a safe and effective vaccine against A(H1N1) influenza, with the northern hemisphere's winter fast approaching.</MAINBODY>
<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR><TR><TD>Preparations for 2nd and 3rd waves
" We cannot say for certain whether the worst is over or the worst is yet to come "
World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan





"We cannot say for certain whether the worst is over or the worst is yet to come," Chan said via videotaped address at the start of a three-day symposium on flu in the Asia-Pacific region.

"We need to be prepared for whatever surprises this capricious new virus delivers next... constant random mutation is the survival mechanism of the microbial world.

"We also need to prepare for a second or even a third wave of spread as typically seen in past pandemics."

About 1,800 people have died since the A(H1N1) virus was first uncovered in April, according to the latest update from the WHO issued this week. The vast majority of those deaths have been recorded in the Americas.

The WHO declared a global pandemic in June, and the U.N. health agency now says there are confirmed cases in more than 170 countries. </PBODY>
</TD></TR><TR><TD><CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR><TR><TD>Northern hemisphere
" Like all influenza viruses, H1N1 has the advantage of surprise on its side "
Chan





While the epidemic appears to be weakening in the southern hemisphere, preparations should be stepped up in the northern hemisphere as the seasonal flu season approaches, Chan said.

"Like all influenza viruses, H1N1 has the advantage of surprise on its side," she said.

"We have the advantage of science and rational investigation on our side, supported by... data collection, analysis and communication that are unprecedented in their power."

Chan said the issue of how to ensure adequate vaccine supplies worldwide needed to be tackled "head on."

"We need to gather advice on priority groups for initial protection," Chan said.

"This is one of the most difficult decisions governments around the world will need to make, especially as we know that supplies will be extremely limited for some months to come." </PBODY>
</TD></TR><TR><TD><CENTER></CENTER></TD></TR><TR><TD>Double doses needed
" This is one of the most difficult decisions governments around the world will need to make, especially as we know that supplies will be extremely limited for some months to come "
China





The WHO said earlier this week that countries in the northern hemisphere alone had ordered more than one billion doses of swine flu vaccine, sparking warnings about shortages, given the intense demand and production delays.

A Chinese drug company, Sinovac Biotech, this week announced positive preliminary data from its clinical trials after giving test subjects just one dose of its vaccine.

But many experts have said that double doses will be needed because most people have no immunity to A(H1N1).

WHO assistant director general Keiji Fukuda said that nations should share information about swine flu vaccines in the same way that data about the virus has been shared.

"In this kind of situation, the access to vaccines, the access to other critical benefits by all countries, is really as important as the sharing of information on viruses," Fukuda said.

In addition to speeding up access to vaccines and anti-viral drugs, the WHO response to a possible second wave of swine flu cases would focus on tracking and monitoring outbreaks and providing information and support, he said.

"The preparedness undertaken by many countries and organizations really did make a significant difference in the response" to the virus so far, Fukuda said. </PBODY>
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:tiphat:http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2009/08/21/82462.html
 
Re: Explosion? of swine flu cases imminent: WHO

Re: Explosion? of swine flu cases imminent: WHO

WHO Warns of ‘Second or Third’ Wave of Swine Flu Cases, AFP Says
2009-08-21 05:31:03.896 GMT


By Mike Harrison
Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Governments around the world need to
prepare for a likely second wave of swine flu cases, Agence
France-Presse said, citing World Health Organization chief
Margaret Chan.
“We cannot say for certain whether the worst is over or
the worst is yet to come,” the news agency cited Chan as saying
at the start of a three-day conference on influenza in the Asia-
Pacific region. “We also need to prepare for a second or even a
third wave of spread as typically seen in past pandemics.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aXdPxs1Ro9WY
 
WHO Predicts Exposion (of H1N1)

WHO Predicts 'Explosion'
of Swine Flu

Updated: Friday, 21 Aug 2009, 6:32 AM CDT


By The Associated Press
BEIJING - The World Health Organization is urging nations to speed up their preparations for swine flu.

A WHO official warns there may soon be "an explosion" in cases until peak transmission of the flu is reached. He says that means most countries may see swine flu cases double every three to four days -- for several months.

He says governments must act quickly to educate the public and prepare their health systems to care for severe cases. He says the swine flu strain poses the greatest threat in developing nations, with underequipped and underfunded health systems.

The swine flu strain has killed almost 1,800 people worldwide. WHO predicts that as many as 2 billion people could become infected in the next two years — nearly one-third of the world's population. The world health group has declared the situation a pandemic.

The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.

http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/dpp/health/dpg_WHO_Swine_Flu_Case_fc_20090821_3082864
 
Re: WHO Predicts Exposion (of H1N1)

Thanks Treyfish. Good to see that they are putting the call out. I'll add that's it very odd to go through daily life with this potential tsunami approaching.
 
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