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WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ?update August 05, 2015 - cumulative number of cases stands at 27 862 ; deaths 11 281 total - WHO admits these

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

There's something really wrong with the Liberian data if they have 931 confirmed cases and 934 confirmed deaths.

Either that or this report of dead Ebola patients resurrecting:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228048

is really true, and those patients just died more than once. :confused:
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

alert said:
There's something really wrong with the Liberian data if they have 931 confirmed cases and 934 confirmed deaths.

Either that or this report of dead Ebola patients resurrecting:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=228048

is really true, and those patients just died more than once. :confused:
Click to expand...

Could they be receiving confirmation results after a suspected or probale case died and then neglected to move the probable or susptected case to the confirmed category?
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

WHO is relying on info delivered by the Liberian MOH who has not published a report of their own since SitRep 136 on Sep 28th. I was quite surprised that WHO was able to get data to Sep 30th. The highlights of that report show a deteriorating situation -

"Nimba
The local authorities in Gbonnie Town, Yarmein District
refused access by the case investigation and management
teams to 14 children brought in from Kakata the police officer
– 2 children are reported symptomatic
...
Contact tracing are becoming more difficult due to continuous
movement of contacts from urban to leeward communities
• Inadequate number of ambulance (1functional) for response
and referral of Ebola patients"
http://www.mohsw.gov.lr/documents/Liberia Ebola Sit Rep 136 Sept 28, 2014.pptx New.pdf

I really think everyone - WHO and MOH are doing their best in an appaling situation.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

http://cpid.iri.columbia.edu/ebola.html
Update 10/01/2014:

In Guinea, the no change forecasts remain biased high and the
improved scenario forecasts better match observations, suggesting a continued
slowing of outbreak growth and perhaps improved efficacy of intervention.
The latest Guinea forecast seems to have responded to a jump in the reported
cases for the week ending 9/28/2014 and predicts much more accelerated growth.
Whether this is an artifact of case reporting or a trend will be borne out in the coming weeks.

In Liberia, observations continue to fall between the no change and improved
scenario forecasts.

In Sierra Leone, the no change scenario forecasts continue to best
match observed outcomes.

Overall, for the combined forecast, the exponential growth
of the outbreak is consistent with the previous week.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[I don't see this. There seems to be an improvement in the numbers]

normalized weekly number of new cases:
497,518,637,595,1113,1071,917,(1095,2days)

weekly changes of (new cases in the last 21 days)
Guinea_,158,289,324,312,292,267,(296,3days)
Liberia,866,1037,1186,1456,1707,1639,(1604)
SierraL,331,433,586,653,737,894,(886)
sumof3_,1355,1759,2096,2421,2736,2800,2786

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

"There's something really wrong with the Liberian data if they have 931 confirmed cases and 934 confirmed deaths."

"Could they be receiving confirmation results after a suspected or probale case died and then neglected to move the probable or suspected case to the confirmed category?"

Unusually low Liberian daily new case totals over the past week in the database might otherwise have been hailed as an infection rate slowdown: the comparatively high death counts along with horrendous news reports have however been suggesting to me that some or many recorded deaths are not ever EVD tested and have simply not also been recorded as confirmed new cases.

Victims arriving already dead in ambulances or cars at care centers, or being turned away and dying at home and then privately buried reflect a chaotic situation where data components cannot be recorded and will remain incomplete: temporary changes/reductions in database new case moving averages seem to reveal data and reporting problems that may become somewhat clearer only after new and better recorded numbers become available.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

do we have an estimate, what the sum of suspected+confirmed+probable
cases should be, with the calculation method from before mid-Sept. ?
 

Attachments

  • who40b.GIF
    who40b.GIF
    21.3 KB · Views: 1
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

WHO has for the 3rd time (Aug 16th, Sep 6th, and now Oct 1st) omitted Liberian data for the 'period being reported', in this instance 10/1, causing WHO's '3-country-total of 7470' as of 10/1 to be understated and misleading.

My database shows Liberia averaging 66 new cases per day for 5 days to 9/28, so I am 'normalizing' WHO's incomplete 10/1 '3-country-total' of 7470, which omits 1 Liberian day, to 7536, to adjust for the missing Liberian estimated new cases on 10/1.

Additionally, WHO often somehow reports numbers not yet released by the national heath ministries: I have no confidence in nor do I refer to the delayed and irregularly reported WHO weekly charts, preferring instead to continually update, and reconstruct, my 2 month daily database and its smoothed moving averages - for the most recent indications of improvements or deteriorations in the rates of daily and weekly new case infection in the 3 primary countries.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

ok, no big change.

Do you agree that the numbers are better now, that they show
a significant improvement ?
no longer exponential
almost stable


I mean, this is probably real and not some change in the reporting/registration/surveillance habits
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report
8 October 2014
The total number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the West African
epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported up to the end of 5 October 2014 (epidemiological
week 40) is 8033 with 3879 deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra
Leone, and the United States of America. A confirmed case of EVD has been reported in Spain1
, but
because the case was confirmed during the week ending 12 October (epidemiological week 41),
information on this case will be included in the next Ebola Response Roadmap update.
The past week has seen a continuation of recent trends: the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra
Leone continues to deteriorate, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. Problems with
data gathering in Liberia continue. It should be emphasized that the reported fall in the number of
new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a
deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data. It is
clear from field reports and first responders that EVD cases are being under-reported from several
key locations, and laboratory data that have not yet been integrated into official estimates indicate
an increase in the number of new cases in Liberia. There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in
West Africa is being brought under control, though there is evidence of a decline in incidence in the
districts of Lofa in Liberia, and Kailahun and Kenema in Sierra Leone.
...
Ebola.png

ANNEX 2. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 5 October 2014, there have been 70 cases (30 confirmed, 26 probable, 15 suspected) of Ebola
virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among healthcare workers (HCWs). In total, 43 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
816 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 305 contacts currently being monitored, all
(100%) were seen on 5 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is
unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136020/1/roadmapsitrep_8Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1

Full PDF attached if WHO is busy.
 

Attachments

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 8, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,033; deaths total 3,865

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 8, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,033; deaths total 3,865

WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
10 October 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136161/1/roadmapupdate10Oct14_eng.pdf?ua=1

A total of 8399 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been
reported in seven affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the
United States of America) up to the end of 8 October. There have been 4033 deaths. Following the
WHO Ebola Response Roadmap structure1
, country reports fall into two categories: 1) those with
widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and 2), those with an initial
case or cases, or with localized transmission (Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, and the United States of
America). An overview of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a separate,
unrelated outbreak of EVD is occurring, is also provided (see Annex 1).
...
Ebola.png

Ebola 1.png

...
ANNEX 1. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 7 October 2014, there have been 71 cases (31 confirmed, 26 probable, 14 suspected) of Ebola
virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among healthcare workers (HCWs). In total, 43 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
830 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 291 contacts currently being monitored, all
(100%) were seen on 7 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is
unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United
States of America.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 10, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,399; deaths total 4,033

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 10, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,399; deaths total 4,033

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report
15 October 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136508/1/roadmapsitrep15Oct2014.pdf?ua=1

A total of 8997 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been
reported in seven affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the
United States of America) up to the end of 12 October. There have been 4493 deaths.
Data for epidemiological week 41 are incomplete, with missing data for 12 October from Liberia. This
reflects the challenging nature of data gathering in countries with widespread and intense EVD
transmission. These challenges remain particularly acute in Liberia, where there continues to be a
mismatch between the relatively low numbers of new cases reported through official clinical
surveillance systems on one hand, and reports from laboratory staff and first responders of large
numbers of new cases on the other. Efforts are ongoing to reconcile different sources of data, and to
rapidly scale-up capacity for epidemiological data gathering throughout each country with
widespread and intense transmission.
It is clear, however, that the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is deteriorating, with
widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. An increase in new cases in Guinea is being driven by
a spike in confirmed and suspected cases in the capital, Conakry, and the nearby district of Coyah. In
Liberia, problems with data gathering make it hard to draw any firm conclusions from recent data.
There is almost certainly significant under-reporting of cases from the capital Monrovia. There does
appear to have been a genuine fall in the number of cases in Lofa district, but a concerted effort will
be required to sustain that drop in cases and translate it into an elimination of EVD in that area. In
Sierra Leone, intense transmission is still occurring in the capital Freetown and the surrounding
districts.
Of the countries with localized transmission, Nigeria and Senegal are now approaching 42 days since
the date of last potential contact with a probable or confirmed case. Both Spain and the United
States continue to monitor potential contacts.
In response to the unprecedented EVD epidemic, the first-ever UN emergency health mission, the
UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response (UNMEER1
) has been set up. Its strategic priorities are to
stop the spread of the disease, treat infected patients, ensure essential services, preserve stability
and prevent the spread to countries currently unaffected by EVD. WHO will continue to be
responsible for overall health strategy and advice within the Mission, and has now moved its base of
operations from Conakry, Guinea, to the UNMEER Mission headquarters in Accra, Ghana. A four-day
crisis management and operational planning meeting will take place in Accra from 15 October.
...
Ebola.png
...
Ebola 1.png
...
ANNEX 2. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 9 October 2014, and following a retrospective laboratory review of cases, there have been 68
cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable, 2 suspected) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In total, 49
deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
852 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 269 contacts currently being monitored, all
(100%) were seen on 9 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is
unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 15, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,997; deaths total 4,493

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 15, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,997; deaths total 4,493

WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
17 October 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136645/1/roadmapupdate17Oct14_eng.pdf?ua=1

A total of 9216 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been
reported in seven affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the
United States of America) up to the end of 14 October. There have been 4555 deaths. A second EVD-
negative sample was obtained from the single confirmed case in Senegal on 5 September (42 days
ago). WHO officially declares the Ebola outbreak in Senegal over. Following the WHO Ebola
Response Roadmap structure1
, country reports fall into two categories: 1) those with widespread
and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and 2) those with an initial case or
cases, or with localized transmission (Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, and the United States of America). An
overview of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a separate, unrelated
outbreak of EVD is occurring, is also provided (see Annex 1).

Ebola.png

Ebola 1.png

ANNEX 1. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 9 October 2014, and following a retrospective laboratory review of cases, there have been 68
cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable, 2 suspected) of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In total, 49
deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
852 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 269 contacts currently being monitored, all
(100%) were seen on 9 October, the last date for which data has been reported. The last confirmed
case was isolated on 4 October. This outbreak is unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria,
Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America.
...
Full PDF attached as WHO seems to be running slow
 

Attachments

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 17, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 9,216; deaths total 4,555

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 17, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 9,216; deaths total 4,555

EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP
SITUATION REPORT
22 OCTOBER 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137091/1/roadmapsitrep22Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1

SUMMARY
A total of 9936 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in five
affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two previously
affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 19 October. A total of 4877 deaths have been reported.

The outbreaks of EVD in Senegal and Nigeria were declared over on 17 October and 19 October 2014, respectively.

EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. All but one
administrative district in Liberia and all administrative districts in Sierra Leone have now reported at least one
confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began. Cases of EVD transmission remain lowest in Guinea,
but case numbers are still very high in absolute terms. Transmission remains intense in the capital cities of the
three most affected countries. Case numbers continue to be under-reported, especially from the Liberian capital
Monrovia.

Of the countries with localized transmission, both Spain and the United States continue to monitor potential
contacts. On 21 October the single patient with EVD in Spain tested negative for the disease for a second time.
Spain will be declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test unless a new case arises
during that period.

On 22 October 2014, WHO convened the third Emergency Committee on Ebola under the International Health
Regulations (2005).
...
Ebola.png

ANNEX 2: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 20 October 2014 there have been 66 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable) of Ebola virus disease (EVD)
reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). All
suspected cases have now been laboratory confirmed or discarded. In total, 49 deaths have been reported,
including eight among HCWs.
Of 1121 total contacts, 1116 have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of five contacts currently being monitored,
all were seen on 20 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is unrelated to that
affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.
...
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 22, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 9,936; deaths total 4,877

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 22, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 9,936; deaths total 4,877

EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP
SITUATION REPORT UPDATE
25 OCTOBER 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137185/1/roadmapupdate25Oct14_eng.pdf?ua=1

SUMMARY
A total of 10 141 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six
affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two
previously affected countries (Nigeria, Senegal) up to the end of 23 October. There have been 4922 reported
deaths.
Following the WHO Ebola Response Roadmap structure1
, country reports fall into two categories: 1) those with
widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and 2) those with or that have had an
initial case or cases, or with localized transmission (Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, and the United States of
America). An overview of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a separate, unrelated
outbreak of EVD is occurring, is also provided (see Annex 1).
...
Ebola.png

...
ANNEX 2: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 21 October 2014 there have been 67 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable, 1 suspected) of Ebola virus disease
(EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In
total, 49 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.

Of 1121 total contacts, 1116 have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of five contacts currently being monitored,
all were seen on 21 October, the last date for which data has been reported. On 10 October, the last reported
case tested negative for the second time and was discharged. The Democratic Republic of the Congo will
therefore be declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test if no new cases are reported.
This outbreak is unrelated to the outbreak that originated in West Africa.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 22, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 9,936; deaths total 4,877

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 22, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 9,936; deaths total 4,877

EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP
SITUATION REPORT
29 OCTOBER 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137376/1/roadmapsitrep_29Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1

SUMMARY
A total of 13 703 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six
affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two
previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 27 October. There have been 4 922 deaths.

The outbreaks of EVD in Senegal and Nigeria were declared over on 17 October and 19 October 2014, respectively.

EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. All administrative
districts in Liberia and Sierra Leone have now reported at least one confirmed or probable case of EVD since the
outbreak began. Cases of EVD transmission remain lowest in Guinea, but case numbers are still very high in
absolute terms. Transmission remains intense in the capital cities of the three most affected countries. Cases and
deaths continue to be under-reported in the outbreak.

Of the countries with localized transmission, Mali, Spain and the United States of America continue to monitor
potential contacts. In Mali, a 2-year-old girl died of Ebola on 24 October, after travelling with her grandmother
from Guinea. The case makes Mali the sixth West African nation to be affected in the current Ebola outbreak.

In Spain, the single patient with EVD tested negative for the disease for a second time on 21 October. Spain will be
declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test, unless a new case arises during that
period. In the US, two health-care workers have tested negative for Ebola for the second time, and have been
discharged from hospital. Another health-care worker remains in isolation and is receiving treatment.
...
Ebola.png
...
ANNEX 2: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 26 October there have been 66 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable) of EVD reported in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In total, 49 deaths have been reported,
including eight among HCWs. No new reported contacts are being followed. The test results of one suspected
case are not yet known.
Eighteen days have passed since the last case tested negative twice and was discharged from hospital. Once 42
days have passed, the country can be declared free of Ebola. This outbreak is unrelated to that affecting Guinea,
Liberia, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 29, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 13,703; deaths total 4,922

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 29, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 13,703; deaths total 4,922

EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP
SITUATION REPORT
31 OCTOBER 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137424/1/roadmapsitrep_31Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1

SUMMARY
A total of 13 567 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six
affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) and two
previously affected countries (Nigeria, Senegal) up to the end of 29 October. There have been 4951 reported
deaths. The cases reported are fewer than those reported in the Situation Report of 29 October, due mainly to
suspected cases in Guinea being discarded.
Following the WHO Ebola Response Roadmap structure1
, country reports fall into two categories: 1) those with
widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and 2) those with or that have had an
initial case or cases, or with localized transmission (Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, and the United States of
America). An overview of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a separate, unrelated
outbreak of EVD is occurring, is also provided (see Annex 2).
...
Ebola.png
...

ANNEX 2: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As of 28 October 2014, there have been 66 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable) of Ebola virus disease (EVD)
reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among health-care workers (HCWs). In total, 49
deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs. All suspected cases have now been discarded.
No new reported contacts are being followed. Twenty days have passed since the last reported case tested
negative for the second time and was discharged. The Democratic Republic of the Congo will therefore be
declared free of EVD 42 days after the date of the second negative test if no new cases are reported. This
outbreak is unrelated to the outbreak that originated in West Africa.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 31, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 13,567; deaths total 4,951

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 31, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 13,567; deaths total 4,951

EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP
SITUATION REPORT
5 NOVEMBER 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137510/1/roadmapsitrep_5Nov14_eng.pdf?ua=1

Ebola.png

SUMMARY
A total of 13 042 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six
affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America) and two previously
affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 2 November. There have been 4818 reported deaths.
The outbreaks of EVD in Senegal and Nigeria were declared over on 17 October and 19 October 2014, respectively.
At the country level, the weekly incidence appears to be stable in Guinea. In Sierra Leone the weekly incidence
continues to rise, while in Liberia it appears to be declining. In all three countries, EVD transmission remains
persistent and widespread, particularly in the capital cities. All administrative districts in Liberia and Sierra Leone
have reported at least 1 confirmed or probable case of EVD since the outbreak began. Cases and deaths continue
to be under-reported in this outbreak.
Of the countries with localized transmission, Mali and the United States of America continue to monitor potential
contacts. In Spain, all 83 contacts of the health-care worker infected in Madrid have completed the 21-day follow-up period.
...
ANNEX 2: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
As at 29 October there have been 66 cases (38 confirmed, 28 probable) of EVD reported in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, including 8 among HCWs. In total, 49 deaths have been reported, including 8 among HCWs.
No new reported contacts are being followed. The test results of 1 suspected case are not yet known.
Twenty-four days have passed since the last case tested negative twice and was discharged from hospital. Once
42 days have passed, the country can be declared free of Ebola. This outbreak is unrelated to that affecting
Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and the United States of America.
 
Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Nov 5th, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 13,042; deaths total 4,818

Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Nov 5th, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 13,042; deaths total 4,818

by the old method used until Oct26 this would look like:



Code: 
                  cases past  deaths
#11,old method          21d   
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1457   273   837
Nov02   probable    204    14   204
        suspected    70   -28b    0
        all        1731   259b 1041

Liberia confirmed   973    23     a
Oct31   probable   2288   379     a
        suspected  1890   542     a
        all        5151   944  3057e

SierraL confirmed  4057  1208  1085
Nov02   probable     79    42   208
        suspected   623   257   157
        all        4759  1507  1450

total             11641  2710b 5548
--------------------------------------
a) not available
b) 68 suspects dropped on Oct.16










summary of the 11 WHO-reports
=============================


Code: 
date,casesGu,casesLi,casesSL,casesAll,deathsGu,deathsLi,deathsSL,deathsAll

from country-reports:
#-2,Aug03, 490, 512, 695, 1697   ,    ,    ,    ,
#-1,Aug11, 510, 605, 800, 1915   , 377, 326, 303,1006
#-0,Aug17, 559, 870, 850, 2279   , 396, 492, 344,1232
#+1,Aug24, 646,1378,1025, 3049   , 430, 743, 386,1559

WHO-reports, old method (county emails)
#01,Aug24, 648,1378,1026, 3052   , 430, 694, 422,1546
#02,Aug31, 771,1698,1216, 3685   , 494, 871, 476,1841
#03,Sep07, 861,2081,1424, 4366   , 557,1137, 524,2218
#04,Sep14, 942,2710,1673, 5335   , 601,1459, 562,2622
#05,Sep21,1022,3280,1940, 6242   , 635,1677, 597,2909
#06,Sep28,1157,3696,2304, 7157   , 710,1998, 622,3330
#07,Oct05,1298,3924,2789, 8011   , 768,2210, 879,3857
#08,Oct12,1472,4249,3252, 8973   , 843,2458,1183,4484
#09,Oct19,1540,4665,3706, 9911   , 904,2705,1259,4868
#10,Oct26,1631,4914,4200,10745   , 994,2878,1387,5259
#11,Nov02,1731,5151,4759,11641   ,1041,3057,1450,5548 

new method: (including VHF-database)
#10,Oct27,1906,6535,5235,13676   , 997,2413,1500,4910
#11,Nov02,1731,6525,4759,13015   ,1041,2697,1070,4808


Code: 
per week:
---------      cases                      deaths
Aug11,  20 ,  93 , 105 , 218 ,   10e,  46e,  52e, 108e
Aug17,  49 , 265 ,  50 , 364 ,   19 , 166 ,  41 , 226
Aug24,  89 , 508 , 176 , 773 ,   34 , 202 ,  78 , 314
Aug31, 123 , 320 , 190 , 633 ,   64 , 177 ,  54 , 295
Sep07,  90 , 383 , 208 , 681 ,   63 , 266 ,  48 , 377
Sep14,  81 , 629 , 249 , 969 ,   44 , 322 ,  38 , 404
Sep21,  80 , 570 , 267 , 907 ,   34 , 218 ,  35 , 287
Sep28, 135 , 416 , 364 , 915 ,   75 , 321 ,  25 , 421
Oct05, 141 , 228 , 485 , 854 ,   58 , 212 , 257 , 527
Oct12, 174 , 325 , 463 , 962 ,   75 , 248 , 304 , 627
Oct19,  68 , 416 , 454 , 938 ,   61 , 247 ,  76 , 384
Oct26,  91 , 249 , 494 , 834 ,   90 , 173 , 128 , 391
Nov02, 100 , 237 , 559 , 896 ,   47 , 179 ,  63 , 289




WHO-reports
===========
Code: 
                  cases past  deaths
report #01              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   482   131   287
Aug24   probable    141     7   141
        suspected    25    20     2
        all         648   158   430
                             
Liberia confirmed   322   192   225 
Aug24   probable    674   423   301
        suspected   382   251   168
        all        1378   866   694
                             
SierraL confirmed   935   308   380
Aug24   probable     37     4    34 
        suspected    54    19     8
        all        1026   331   422
                             
total              3052  1355  1546
--------------------------------------
a) the WHO-report #2 was issued Aug29,
but it's unclear what date the data is from
so the numbers are taken from the 
country-reports for Aug24



                  cases past  deaths
report #02(a)           21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   579     b   343
Aug31   probable    150     b   149
        suspected    42     b     2
        all         771     b   494
                             
Liberia confirmed   403     b   271 
Aug31   probable    815     b   373
        suspected   480     b   227
        all        1698     b   871
                             
SierraL confirmed  1107     b   430
Aug31   probable     37     b    34 
        suspected    72     b    12
        all        1216     b   476
                             
total              3685     b  1841
--------------------------------------
a) data from other reports for Aug31
 the actual WHO-report #02 was for Sep05
b) not available



                  cases past  deaths
report #03              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   678   285   403
Sep07   probable    151    12   150
        suspected    32    27     4
        all         861   324   557

Liberia confirmed   654   394   498 
Sep07   probable    974   506   428
        suspected   453   286   211
        all        2081  1186  1137

SierraL confirmed  1287   518   478
Sep07   probable     37     3    34 
        suspected   100    65    12
        all        1424   586   524

total              4366  2096  2218
--------------------------------------



                  cases past  deaths
report #04              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   750   266   435
Sep14   probable    162    21   161
        suspected    30    25     5
        all         942   312   601

Liberia confirmed   812   462   631 
Sep14   probable   1233   596   518
        suspected   675   398   310
        all        2710  1429  1459

SierraL confirmed  1513   584   517
Sep14   probable     37     0    34 
        suspected   123    69    11
        all        1673   653   562

total              5335  2394  2622
--------------------------------------




                  cases past  deaths
report #05              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   832   256   468
Sep21   probable    162    14   162
        suspected    28    22     5
        all        1022   292   635

Liberia confirmed   890   469   671 
Sep21   probable   1469   648   593
        suspected   921   590   413
        all        3280  1707  1677

SierraL confirmed  1745   644   552
Sep21   probable     37     0    34 
        suspected   158    93    11
        all        1940   737   597

total              6242  2736  2909
--------------------------------------




                  cases past  deaths
report #06              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   950   230   535
Sep28   probable    170    14   170
        suspected    37    23     5
        all        1157   270   710

Liberia confirmed   927   280   890 
Sep28   probable   1656   687   664
        suspected  1113   672   444
        all        3696  1639  1998

SierraL confirmed  2076   788   574
Sep28   probable     37     0    37 
        suspected   191   106    11
        all        2304   894   622

total              7157  2800  3330
--------------------------------------




                  cases past  deaths
report #07              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1044   253   587
Oct05   probable    180    13   179
        suspected    74    65     2
        all        1298   331   768

Liberia confirmed   941a  136  1018a
Oct04   probable   1795   567   701
        suspected  1188   651   491
        all        3924  1354  2210

SierraL confirmed  2455   924   725
Oct05   probable     37b    0   123a
        suspected   297   190    31
        all        2789  1114   879

total              8011  2799  3857
--------------------------------------
a) 77 more deaths than confirmed cases
b) 86 more deaths than confirmed cases
  275 deaths are retrospective




                  cases past  deaths
report #08              21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1184   289   653
Oct12   probable    190    19   190
        suspected    98    89     0
        all        1472   397   843

Liberia confirmed   950    66     a
Oct11   probable   1923   468     a
        suspected  1376   555     a
        all        4249  1089  2458

SierraL confirmed  2849  1110   926
Oct12   probable     37b    0   157b
        suspected   366   220   100
        all        3252  1330  1183

total              8973  2816  4484
--------------------------------------
a) not available
b) 120 more deaths than cases



                  cases past  deaths
report #09              7d   
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1289   106   710
Oct19   probable    193     3   193
        suspected    58     0     1
        all        1540   109   904

Liberia confirmed   965a   17  1241a
Oct18   probable   2106   185   803
        suspected  1594   211   661
        all        4665   413  2705

SierraL confirmed  3223   374   986
Oct19   probable     37b    0   164b
        suspected   446    80   109
        all        3706   454  1259

total              9911   976  4868
--------------------------------------
a) 276 more deaths than cases
b) 127 more deaths than cases



                  cases past  deaths
report #10              21d   
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1391   332     a
Oct27   probable    199    19     a
        suspected   316   315     a
        all        1906   666   997

Liberia confirmed  2515    35     a
Oct25   probable   1540   363     a
        suspected  2480   469     a
        all        6535   867  2413

SierraL confirmed  3700  1187     a
Oct27   probable    322    14     a
        suspected  1213   232     a
        all        5235  1433  1500

total             13676  2966  4910
--------------------------------------
a) not available


                  cases past  deaths
#10,old method          21d   
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1368     a   790
Oct26   probable    204     a   204
        suspected    59     a     0
        all        1631     a   994

Liberia confirmed   973     a     a
Oct25   probable   2196     a     a
        suspected  1745     a     a
        all        4914     a  2884

SierraL confirmed  3622     a  1044
Oct26   probable     79     a   208
        suspected   499     a   135
        all        4200     a  1387

total             10745     a  5265
--------------------------------------
a) not available



                  cases past  deaths
#11                     21d   
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1457   247   837
Nov02   probable    204     9   204
        suspected    70     a     0
        all        1731   256  1041

Liberia confirmed  2451    19     a
Oct31   probable   1627   379     a
        suspected  2447     a     a
        all        6525   398  2697

SierraL confirmed  4057  1160   893
Nov02   probable     79    14   142
        suspected   623     a    35
        all        4759  1174  1070

total             13015  1828  4808
--------------------------------------
a) not available



                  cases past  deaths
#11,old method          21d   
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed  1457   273   837
Nov02   probable    204    14   204
        suspected    70   -28b    0
        all        1731   259b 1041

Liberia confirmed   973    23     a
Oct31   probable   2288   379     a
        suspected  1890   542     a
        all        5151   944  3057e

SierraL confirmed  4057  1208  1085
Nov02   probable     79    42   208
        suspected   623   257   157
        all        4759  1507  1450

total             11641  2710b 5548
--------------------------------------
a) not available
b) 68 suspects dropped on Oct.16


Code: 
from old country-reports
========================

                  cases past  deaths
country-reports         21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   369     b   242
Aug11   probable    133     b   133
        suspected     8     b     2
        all         510     b   377  
                             
Liberia confirmed   155     b   143 
Aug10   probable    305     b   133
        suspected   145     b    50
        all         605     b   326
                             
SierraL confirmed   717     b   264
Aug12   probable     37     b    34 
        suspected    46     b     5
        all         800     b   303
                             
total              1915     b  1006
--------------------------------------
b) not available



                  cases past  deaths
country-reports         21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   403     b   254
Aug17   probable    140     b   140
        suspected    16     b     2
        all         559     b   396  
                             
Liberia confirmed   214     b   186 
Aug17   probable    444     b   206
        suspected   212     b   100
        all         870     b   492
                             
SierraL confirmed   778     b   305
Aug17   probable     37     b    34 
        suspected    35     b     5
        all         850     b   344
                             
total              2279     b  1232
--------------------------------------
b) not available


                  cases past  deaths
country-reports         21d  
-------------------------------------
Guinea  confirmed   480     b   287
Aug24   probable    141     b   141
        suspected    25     b     2
        all         646     b   430
                             
Liberia confirmed   322     b   272 
Aug24   probable    674     b   301
        suspected   382     b   169
        all        1378     b   743
                             
SierraL confirmed   935     b   341
Aug24   probable     37     b    37 
        suspected    53     b     8
        all        1025     b   386
                             
total              3049     b  1559
--------------------------------------
b)not available
 
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